rr6013

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Is anything critical whether bead rolled edge on doors, etc…
This is where the plebes knowledge base stands -

Known knowns:
Structure
Front casting integrates top shock tower perch
Battery pack is structural bonded to Front casting and cowl
Rear casting integrates drive unit mounts and suspension system
Interior ass’y forms top of batterypack integrating furnishing mounts
Exoskeleton 30x s.s. stamped B-pillar integrates armor glass W/S+O.H.
Exoskeleton 4drs ~6’+ bed provides pickup tailgate functionality
Mechanical
AWD units, Octo heat/cool, disc brake, BAW, hydraulic stg sector, RWS
Electrical
CANBUS 40/800v, LED H/L+T/L, tonneau cover, 17” touchscreen
Suspension
Wishbone/McPherson strut steel spring/dynamic air
CYBER
FSD, EAP,
Oramental
Plastic front airdam, frt+rr bumper assy, fender flares, whl covers, frunk
Composite bedliner assy
Black STD color
Utility
Hitch
compressor
240/110v
ramps



Known unknowns:
Accessory PDU
Plaid
Tri,Dual,Sgl variants
QuadWD
Winch attach pts
V2*
Dimensions
Weight GVWR
Capacities
Turn radius
Battery 4680 chem/an/cathode
Yoke
3mm S.S.
BAW
Mirrors
Attachment points
Range 500mi.
puddle lamps
foot lamps
Open Door lights in striker panel
wheel well lights
T-slot/L-attach
12v battery
Self-leveling
load lamps
scroll wheels
rocker switches
Recovery storage box
TPMS AI inflate/deflate YAW sensor + user selectable


Unknown Unknowns:
StarLink mt pt
Pass-thru panel
Active charging
Slope Angle sensor 2way
Bed weight gauge sensor
96A DUAL charge ports
900v
LiFePO
Solar
Snowplow attachment mounts
40” MT tire size wheel wells
5th wheel attachment mounts
Interior colors
Tow Range
SOLAR wings
Camera mirrors
Hero Control(lockers, freespool)
Aero mode(i.e. low/low)
Entry/exit mode(undriveable low drop)
HEPA
Ice alarm
wireless induction charging
Electro-Prismatic sunvisors
CyberDRONE accessory
WiFi audio
One pedla roll switch adjust
Watch Dog mode
 

rr6013

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A list of unknown unknowns sure seems like a list of known unknowns
O.K. Share the CT Luv here. What is known about:
StarLink mt pt
Pass-thru panel
Active charging
Slope Angle sensor 2way
Bed weight gauge sensor
96A DUAL charge ports
900v
LiFePO
Solar
Snowplow attachment mounts
40” MT tire size wheel wells
5th wheel attachment mounts
Interior colors
Tow Range
SOLAR wings
Camera mirrors
Hero Control(lockers, freespool)
Aero mode(i.e. low/low)
Entry/exit mode(undriveable low drop)
HEPA
Ice alarm
wireless induction charging
Electro-Prismatic sunvisors
CyberDRONE accessory
WiFi audio
One pedla roll switch adjust
Watch Dog mode
 


JBee

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A list of unknown unknowns sure seems like a list of known unknowns
Depends on your frame of reference and who knows what or doesn't? 😜
If you went from brakes that wore out in five years and thousands of stops to ones that wore out in months after dozens of stops...

...pretty sure you'd describe those stops as breaking the brakes.

-Crissa
The point is that if you use any tools they eventually wear out, and the cost of them wearing out is proportional to the cost of manufacturing.

Unlike the models demonstrated by firsttruck CT is some 10x thicker and the body panel material itself will weaken if pressed, stamped or bent.

Thats got nothing to do with tool consumables.

Its most likely to be cut and then cold rolled into the required shape whilst it is being hardened. Makes the most sense to me atm. Fast continuous production without machine cycling.
 
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cvalue13

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O.K. Share the CT Luv here. What is known about:
You’ve listed known unknowns (e.g., you know that the status of HEPA is unknown)

Unknown unknowns can’t be listed (it’s unknown what is unknown)
 

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Rumsfeld stated:

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.
 

Crissa

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Most of the known-unknown list are just attempts to nail down unknown-unknowns. A real known unknown is like the four-wheel steering or quad motor - we know that it'll be available, but when and which models we can't be sure of. But we do know it exists now, that's been confirmed.

-Crissa
 

rr6013

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You’ve listed known unknowns (e.g., you know that the status of HEPA is unknown)

Unknown unknowns can’t be listed (it’s unknown what is unknown)
HEPA - I read an in-depth piece on Tesla that went into its air filtration. It stated that Tesla uses the HVAC industry standard of particulate matter compared to HEPA orders of magnitude smaller size. Takeaway was why did Tesla forego HEPA standard? IDK WTF Tesla means by BioDefense at all.

//////// Ahh, literary license! ////////
This isn’t CIA, Nat’l Security nor OSI(Justice)

Imaginary(watch Dog) unknown unknowns are just unknown.
Stuff that’s a real thing(snowplow) still are unknown wrt: Cybertruck still unknown. Dudes in white stuff deserve yes/no.
Then there’s wishlist shit(Hero) that should be on Cybertruck that has never been raised — unknown unknowns.
Lastly, cheats like solar, 96A DUAL and pass-thru panel were lopped onto the unk-unk heap ’cuz Tesla has ”run silent” with those.
Ice alarm is grey area since EM lopped off mirrors as detachables the integrated ice alarm in outside mirror housings is what? Gone? Never been listed, mentioned or noted so I thought it unk-unk.
Camera mirrors ditto…

Unk-Unk classification is a writing prompt to imagine what you haven’t, conjure the improbable and think the impossible outside of acts of God, Nature and animals.
 


Jhodgesatmb

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Is anything critical whether bead rolled edge on doors, etc…
This is where the plebes knowledge base stands -

Known knowns:
Structure
Front casting integrates top shock tower perch
Battery pack is structural bonded to Front casting and cowl
Rear casting integrates drive unit mounts and suspension system
Interior ass’y forms top of batterypack integrating furnishing mounts
Exoskeleton 30x s.s. stamped B-pillar integrates armor glass W/S+O.H.
Exoskeleton 4drs ~6’+ bed provides pickup tailgate functionality
Mechanical
AWD units, Octo heat/cool, disc brake, BAW, hydraulic stg sector, RWS
Electrical
CANBUS 40/800v, LED H/L+T/L, tonneau cover, 17” touchscreen
Suspension
Wishbone/McPherson strut steel spring/dynamic air
CYBER
FSD, EAP,
Oramental
Plastic front airdam, frt+rr bumper assy, fender flares, whl covers, frunk
Composite bedliner assy
Black STD color
Utility
Hitch
compressor
240/110v
ramps



Known unknowns:
Accessory PDU
Plaid
Tri,Dual,Sgl variants
QuadWD
Winch attach pts
V2*
Dimensions
Weight GVWR
Capacities
Turn radius
Battery 4680 chem/an/cathode
Yoke
3mm S.S.
BAW
Mirrors
Attachment points
Range 500mi.
puddle lamps
foot lamps
Open Door lights in striker panel
wheel well lights
T-slot/L-attach
12v battery
Self-leveling
load lamps
scroll wheels
rocker switches
Recovery storage box
TPMS AI inflate/deflate YAW sensor + user selectable


Unknown Unknowns:
StarLink mt pt
Pass-thru panel
Active charging
Slope Angle sensor 2way
Bed weight gauge sensor
96A DUAL charge ports
900v
LiFePO
Solar
Snowplow attachment mounts
40” MT tire size wheel wells
5th wheel attachment mounts
Interior colors
Tow Range
SOLAR wings
Camera mirrors
Hero Control(lockers, freespool)
Aero mode(i.e. low/low)
Entry/exit mode(undriveable low drop)
HEPA
Ice alarm
wireless induction charging
Electro-Prismatic sunvisors
CyberDRONE accessory
WiFi audio
One pedla roll switch adjust
Watch Dog mode
These lists are not accurate. There are more known knowns for example minimum maximum height 75", minimum ground clearance 8", suspension range +/- 4", etc.

You say that these are known unknowns but they aren't:

Battery 4680 chem/an/cathode - We know that the 4680 is using a Nickel Manganese cell chemistry. We know that Tesla's intention is to use Silicon even if they aren't yet.
Yoke - We know that the CT will have a yoke
3mm S.S. - We know that the CT exoskeleton, doors, and hood will be 3mm SS.
Range 500mi. - We know that the Tri-Motor will haver a 500+ mile range because that is what was advertised during the unveiling and Elon has never said it was changing to be less (and Tesla never under-delivers on the unveiling)
12v battery - All Teslas now use a Lithium-Ion 12v battery
Self-leveling - Elon said that the CT would be self leveling

Most of your Unknown Unknowns are some kind of fantasy as most of them have never been mentioned in any context as far as I know, not by Tesla or any other BEV truck manufacturer. Some are wrong:

HEPA - Elon said in no uncertain terms that the CT would have a biodefense mode for the cabin. What was unclear was to what extent it might apply to the bed.
WiFi audio - Tesla only has wifi audio and cellular. I wish they had a regular radio because mine cuts out all the time when the wifi or cellular signal drops out.

I am sure that many of us are keeping a spreadsheet of known and unknown features and specifications. Perhaps the moderator should publish a compilation of actually-known features and specs. After all, they publish the reservation list which is clearly wrong.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Who said they are stamping at all?
If they are stamping what exactly is being stamped? To cut it and to form it or just one of those?

Not all parts need be made with the same process, or from the same manufacturing line. Each piece would be manufactured individually.

Then what shape is actually being formed? Is it just the three horizontal creases in the doors (two in the front quarter panels) or does it also fold around the corners like a normal door panel, and does it have extra structural elements on the inside of the door? I think forming it only requires the couple of creases, the 3mm SS does most of the rest structurally, the door hinges and lock and the side impact intrusion bar (if there is one) are embedded in the interior cladding and designed to interface with the internal door frame. As per the prototype reveal:

EKRS3WdVAAM6PUR?format=jpg&name=large.jpg


BTW the steel skin here looks thin compared to the windows, do we even know if the CT prototype had 3mm, it might of been just 1,5mm and still hold up to the hammer test.

The front and rear quarter panels, flat frunk and two bend front grill, and rear tailgate is all that is left, that is directly visible. Then you have the cabin, which will likely be made of custom tube profiles, not formed or pressed flat plate. The Structural pack and castings attach to that, and so does the rest. The castings will be aluminum not stainless, the pack likely a mix like on the MY. There's nothing that says it has to be ALL stainless, and there's no reason too.

I still think we are missing a few key manufacturing advancements on how this all works, that Tesla already knows.
You are right of course, the exoskeleton is only a few bends per side and the door exterior is the same. Tesla 'could' stamp the thinner, inner sections but there won't be any stamping of the exoskeleton regardless of whether it is 'feasible' to do so. It isn't practical.
 

flowerlandfilms

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seems to me, that this is all missing their asserted hypothesis: that a SS with the hardness described by EM would not permit of such stamping without unacceptable failure rates of the SS itself - it’s like attempting to bend a cracker: it’s not a problem to apply the effort needed to get the material to respond, the problem is that crackers don’t respond to that effort by bending.

To the degree that is true, it would seem to equally irrelevant whether a press might become damaged by repetitively chewing up useless pieces of failed SS

Seems like saying, “the reason we don’t bend crackers with our hands is that the sharp edges chew up your skin”
You can wet the cracker.
 

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yes, this is what the article i read (from the SS forming modeler) was saying: it’s absolutely false that the SS would break any appropriate press, but instead that at a certain strength rating the SS approaches its tensile strength and so attempts to bend instead produce cracks/failures.

with all this I went ahead and re-dig up the articles (for what it’s worth):

From ‘StampingSimulation.com,’ which as the name suggests is a company that appears to perform theoretical metal fabrication modeling so as to virtually proof-of-concept various such manufacturing processes, or in their words: “StampingSimulation has been in the forming simulation business for over a decade. Our experience enables us to quickly and efficiently clear any roadblocks and provide you with sound and effective products and tools, according to your specifications. We are engineers serving engineers…”

Now, these are probably posts that some or most here have already seen and somehow discredited ping ago and I’ll get flamed for retaining them in ignorance, but until then I’ll repost in full for posterity (but go to the links to see associated graphs:

Elon Musk – You Are Wrong About Forming Stainless Steel – Part 1

Unless your head has been buried in the sand, the recent reveal of Tesla’s Cybertruck unveiled “Ultra-Hard 30X Cold-Rolled stainless-steel” as the primary material for the complete “exoskeleton” of the entire vehicle. Although the details of the entire bodywork is not clear, Musk stated that the panel thickness was 3mm and bulletproof to a 9mm handgun. Musk went on further to also state that the new stainless alloy (developed by Tesla for their starship rocket) could not be formed into any shapes because “it would break the stamping press”.

We were able to make the skin out of thick ultra-hard stainless steel…..it’s really hard….we’re going to show you just how hard” Elon Musk

cybertruck-stainless-steel-body-review-1024x769.jpg

The Cybertruck uses what Tesla calls “Ultra-Hard 30X Cold-Rolled stainless-steel.” This material is supposed to be superior to stainless 304. Source: Business Insider
Is Forming “Hard” Stainless Steel Possible?
The first issue a sheet metal engineer has with this statement is the constant use of the word “hard”. The correct engineering term would be “strong”, as in strength or yield strength, to be more exact. A material that is “hard” is not necessarily strong, and a “hard” material may indeed have lower tensile strength than a “soft” material. The point is, the word “hard” (or soft) is the wrong way to describe the strength of a material.

Hardness, in fact, is a separate property on its own and is measured on a hardness scale, which is entirely different from strength.

Granted, Elon Musk is a highly skilled engineer and probably entirely aware of these engineering facts, and perhaps is simply complying with common industry nomenclature, in the same way, non-engineering folk interchange lbs-ft with ft-lbs when referring to torque (the former is correct, the latter is technically wrong).

So let’s give Elon the benefit of the doubt with respect to the incorrect use of the word “hard”, technically speaking.

Reason Cybertruck is so planar is that you can’t stamp ultra-hard 30X steel, because it breaks the stamping press.” Elon Musk

Are you sure Elon? Various automotive components have been stamped from “ordinary” stainless steel for decades. These include exhaust components (usually 400 series stainless steel), as well as some cosmetic components such as bumpers and aftermarket accessories (usually 300 series stainless steel).

Could the new SpaceX “Ultra-Hard 30X Cold-Rolled stainless-steel” be so strong (not hard) that it would literally break the stamping press? I don’t think so.

Why it Wouldn’t Break the Stamping Press
“30X” most probably refers to a 300 series grade of stainless steel alloy eg: 304 is common. The “X” in “30X” probably denotes the new alloy that SpaceX has developed. Another possibility is that the “30X” actually means 30 times, as in, the new alloy is cold rolled 30 times over, to work strengthen the material (also known as work “hardening”) to improve it’s mechanical properties. It’s not clear which meaning is correct, without input from Elon Musk or his SpaceX engineers.

How Stainless Steel Forming is Achieved
Let’s examine both assumptions.

If the new material is indeed a 300 series stainless steel, that has been cold rolled, then the maximum “benefit” the cold rolling can give the material is to increase its Yield Strength to almost equal its Tensile Strength. Thus, in the case of 300 series stainless steel, typical figures look like this:

tesla-cybertruck-review-1024x719.jpg

Typical mechanical properties for stainless steel 304 – uniaxial tensile test from a real-world sample
In summary, we can see that Yield Strength is about 275 M Pa and Tensile Strength is about 611 MPa. If the material were to be cold worked to improve its Yield Strength, the maximum possible strength is 611 MPa. Cold working or cold rolling cannot improve the base material beyond its ultimate tensile strength. To do this would require a significant amount of cold work to be done on the material. Perhaps this is why the “30X” could refer to cold rolling the material 30 times over, and not to a 300 series alloy.

After all, it’s a “new” stainless steel alloy developed by SpaceX, right?

Thus the real question is (if the above assumptions are correct), will cold-rolled stainless steel with YS = TS = 611 MPa break the stamping press?

Answer: No, assuming the press is correctly sized for the part. The part will fail (split or crack), not the press.

The part cracks or split during the attempted forming operation, because the material that is cold worked to the point of its Tensile Strength, has no ability to stretch or form. If the material is cold rolled or worked to its maximum, any additional cold work (ie: forming in a press) pushes the material past its Tensile limit and it fails (cracks).

successful-stainless-steel-304-stamping-1024x513.jpg

With the help of StampingSimulation, these two parts were formed successfully from stainless steel 304. Press requirements were 150 tons. The press did not break. The resulting strength of the panel is much greater than the original material, due to cold work during forming.
It is not uncommon for large automotive stamping presses to be in the 1000s of tons. Even 5000 tons. That’s a lot of tonnage to stamp even the strongest materials. In fact, the automotive industry already stamps very high strength materials, some with Tensile Strengths greater than 1200 MPa. At even higher strengths, heating is used to form ANY strength of material into ANY shape. This is already common practice, although it comes at an increased cost.

In Conclusion
So Elon is wrong about forming stainless steel. In addition, Elon has specified 3mm thick stainless steel, which GREATLY increases forming tonnages required. Typical automotive skin panels are just 0.65mm thick, so 3mm thick is a huge increase in material mass and means the press has to be many times larger to stamp thicker 3mm material successfully.

One must wonder, would a 3mm thick high strength steel door perform the same as the 3mm “Ultra Hard Stainless Steel” vs the sledgehammer test? Probably yes, given that high strength steel during forming is also cold worked and strengthened in the exact same way as cold rolling stainless steel.

Thus, Elon should have stated “forming a complete exoskeleton using our new 3mm 30X Ultra Strong Stainless Steel will break our stamping press……so we decided not to form or shape the panels”

Clever marketing? OR genius engineering?

More to follow in part 2 next month…….



Elon Musk – You Are Wrong About Forming Stainless Steel – Part 2


We will continue this topic on the Cybertruck, by investigating additional statements made about the Tesla Cybertruck and forming stainless steel. It has been stated by Tesla, that the new Cybertruck will be “incredibly cheap” to bring to market. Let’s also note that the expected initial planned volume of Cybertruck is 50,000 units, as some sources are estimating, although pre-orders are beyond this number. StampingSimulation recently wrote a Part 1 of this topic, that you should go check-out before continuing.

n-Musk-You-are-wrong-about-forming-stainless-steel.png


Let’s quickly recap what was written last month in “Part 1” of this article.

  • Elon Musk revealed new Cybertruck to be made from Ultra-Hard 30X Cold-Rolled stainless-steel
  • Panel thickness to be 3mm thick and
  • Cybertruck is so planar because forming stainless would break the stamping press
  • StampingSimulation proved that forming stainless steel is possible, and fairly routine in the automotive industry
  • Clever marketing? OR genius engineering?
Tesla also stated that the process to bend the stainless sheet into the planar shape of the Cybertruck was to score the sheet and bend it, much like origami and then weld it into shape. A very large sheet of stainless would at first be laser cut or water jet cut into a flat pattern. This is how the prototype Cybertruck was made, it was revealed.

Elon-Musk-wrong-about-forming-stainless-steel.png

Laser cutting example, however, this is 3D laser cutting a formed sheet metal part, which is not how the Cybertruck will be made. Laser cutting is a slower process, compared to cutting in a stamping tool.
How the Cybertruck Can be Made
The exact process of bending the exoskeleton into shape is critical to the success (or failure) of the Cybertruck and this also means that “normal” or “traditional” body manufacturing methods cannot be used.

And this is where the problem lies. Sheet metal stamping (including stamping stainless steel) is incredibly efficient when done correctly and in a high-speed production line. It is not uncommon for automotive parts to be produced at a rate of 30 to 50 parts per minute. Sometimes slower, sometimes faster, depending on the size and the exact nature of the part. This is achieved by using mechanical transfer methods, and also with robotic transfer systems. Also, the entire bodysides outer panel is often stamped as one part, using current production methods.

Efficient Tooling vs. Laser Cutting
The cutting of the blank (or the flat layout) is done by “blanking” tools that can cut and trim the entire shape in less than one second and repeats endlessly until an entire roll of steel (or any sheet material, including stainless steel) is consumed. For example, the entire “flat layouts” needed to produce the initial volume of 50,000 units of the Cybertruck could be produced in less than 17 hours, using traditional stamping methods. How long would laser cutting or water jet cutting take to produce the same volume of blanks? Answer: Much, much longer. Perhaps a thousand times longer, if we assume a single laser cutting machine vs a single stamping press.

Similar to the forming process. The forming stages of a well-designed stamping process are always part of the same “gang” of tools, all stages of the stamping tool are subsequent to each other. Thus whether it be a two-stage forming tool or a twenty stage forming tool, once the tool is running, one part is produced with every stroke of the press. The stroke rate (as before) can easily be 50 strokes per minute. That’s the same speed as just the cutting process!

Forming-Stainless-Steel.png

This is an example of STAINLESS STEEL being cut AND formed (stamped) in a high-speed progression tool. This example makes one stainless steel part every 2 seconds.
A bending process can be done in a stamping tool. But the method described by Tesla to bend the laser cut stainless sheet for the Cybertruck implies a CNC bending method or perhaps a brake press method. Either way, this bending method is time-consuming, and even more so for a large part.

The slowest, least efficient way to manufacture a sheet metal part is to laser cut and fold it manually. That’s why this is the method used to create low volume or prototype parts. Granted,
Elon Musk may be set to disrupt the stamping industry with a revolutionary method for high-speed laser cutting and bending, but I doubt it. At least, there is no indication that the manufacturing process for the Cybertruck will be a revolution, at this point.

The reason laser cutting and bending a steel sheet is “cheap” is because there is no special tooling required. No investment upfront. BUT the downside is that this method is SLOW! Elon
Musk forgot to mention that detail.

The Truth About Cybertrucks
More likely, the truth is that the Cybertruck is intended to be a low volume production because the chosen manufacturing method does not lend itself to high volume production. In the automotive industry, high volume production means 300,000+ vehicles per year. Perhaps there could be a limited number of Cybertrucks made in total OR perhaps 50,000 units per year is the maximum product volume possible. Elon Musk may well be planning a “prototype production run” of Cybertrucks, with limited volume.

Time will tell. Engineering genius OR clever marketing? Can the Cybertruck achieve what the DeLorean could not? Time will tell.”
The "exoskeleton" has always been oversimplified in my view and glossed over. "It will be so efficient and cheap" I haven't seen a machine to date that could come close to making one frame, let alone thousands per week. I have seen some machines that can bend a complex 2x2 box made of 22 gauge steel, but 3mm on multiple planes and angles in a scale of over 8 feet is entirely different. A 20 degree bend vs a 90 degree bend with 3mm is also a different animal. This might be the last major barrier for mass production production.

Not all manufacturing problems were solved in Nov 2019. Elon has a 'we will figure it out attitude'. Like the BAW. Well nothing magical happened with the wiper. They just made a huge wiper. We think. Brute force was always the fall back plan.

Maybe they didn't figure out how to score/bend/back weld a 20 foot frame on multiple planes. Maybe they just shear the panels and weld the whole thing in a jig. Or bend a couple of the major pieces with the ~15 degree bends and then put it in a jig and weld it. Welding has come a long way, especially with what they do at SpaceX.

But instead of traditional welding they now print the welds. Printing welds?

They can now print stainless steel. This is oversimplified but it appears they are now printing the constituents of alloys rather than melting a filler rod to a base material. The heat affected zone could be tiny, they only need to melt the base metal maybe 2x?? the length of the longest grain.

I doubt printing speeds will be super fast. Maybe 20 seconds per inch, but they could have 10 jigs and 10 robotic welders per jig and make a frame every hour.

IDK. This isn't quite right, but we are still missing something. The Exoskeleton isn't cheap or easy at this point.
Sponsored

 
 




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