Sub-2% conversion rate on Foundation series

[DaveDUtah]

Today's TFLEV (The Fast Lane EV) gave some insight into the likely "take rate" of foundation series. Their reservation was 49,499 in line, and they just received an invitation to order one of the 1000 Foundation Series CyberTrucks. Since they are in the Denver area, it appears that invites are issuing outside of the Texas and California areas. And the math of 1,000/50,000 is 2%. Assuming they didn't receive the last of the invites, the take rate could easily be less than 2%.

My reservation is about 110,000 in line (ordered the morning after the announcement) and I would certainly be among the 98% who are not taking up the invite. If the prices come back down closer to the original prices, I'll reconsider. But the combination of astronomical pricing and the "missing" features has me not terribly interested in getting one for myself in the near future.

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[jerhenderson]

No one official ever said they are only making 1000 foundation units. No one. They'll make a many as they can sell I'm sure.

 

[donnyb]

I just watched the video and they're struggling for accurate information. From the lightbar on the dual motor to how limited the foundation series is. People are choosing not to order the foundation, but some are. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Darth abbott]

Today's TFLEV (The Fast Lane EV) gave some insight into the likely "take rate" of foundation series. Their reservation was 49,499 in line, and they just received an invitation to order one of the 1000 Foundation Series CyberTrucks. Since they are in the Denver area, it appears that invites are issuing outside of the Texas and California areas. And the math of 1,000/50,000 is 2%. Assuming they didn't receive the last of the invites, the take rate could easily be less than 2%.

My reservation is about 110,000 in line (ordered the morning after the announcement) and I would certainly be among the 98% who are not taking up the invite. If the prices come back down closer to the original prices, I'll reconsider. But the combination of astronomical pricing and the "missing" features has me not terribly interested in getting one for myself in the near future.

Let's assume for a second that they are only doing 1,000, it is absolutely remarkable that over half of those 1,000 people that are reserved trucks have taken the time to join this forum and list their truck and reservation number in the forum.

If 500 people have taken the time to do it on this forum, 50% have the reservation holders taking the time to list it would be remarkable. It is clearly way more than 1,000 trucks probably 20,000 could be 10,000 but it's definitely way more than one thousand. I'm hoping that it's only 10,000 as I am one of them and would like to get my truck as soon as possible.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

There's a line?

 

[carsly]

Why not run the entire list of orders with 'Foundation Series' invites at $20K over., with no limit on production numbers...

...and then run the list again for the "Launch Edition" at $10K over, maybe just with FSD and some free supercharging. Also no limit on production numbers...

....and then open up the order book to regular orders at regular prices? Might get through the entire first year's production run with 'Foundation' and 'Launch' special editions at premium prices. Sounds like good business to me!

Do you know anyone who paid $130-140K for a Plaid? How about $120K? $100K? $90K? It's not like it hasn't been done before. Heck, Porsche are the true masters of this game but in this case Tesla doesn't need to tool for an infinite number of permutations and personalizations, just one standard build at a time.

 

[Crissa]

We'd expect a low take rate for the higher price point,

They're clearly skipping people without location data, or location data outside the original search (they haven't reaches out to anyone who doesn't have a US reservation, for instance, that one in Canada has a US reservation).

Which would mess with the numbers a bit.

Why not run the entire list of orders with 'Foundation Series' invites at $20K over., with no limit on production numbers...

...and then run the list again for the "Launch Edition" at $10K over, maybe just with FSD and some free supercharging. Also no limit on production numbers...

....and then open up the order book to regular orders at regular prices? Might get through the entire first year's production run with 'Foundation' and 'Launch' special editions at premium prices. Sounds like good business to me!

Do you know anyone who paid $130-140K for a Plaid? How about $120K? $100K? $90K? It's not like it hasn't been done before. Heck, Porsche are the true masters of this game but in this case Tesla doesn't need to tool for an infinite number of permutations and personalizations, just one standard build at a time.

That's probably what they're doing.

I can only hope they come back to me when they have that price they teased me with originally.

I haven't seen anything yet, not that I can afford it at the current price point.

-Crissa

 

[CyberJerry]

I would bet the entire 2024 run of CT will be Foundation Series. Maybe into 2025 as well. That would definitely help early buyers with a one year minimum hold period.

 

[greggertruck]

There's several X more than 1000 FS orders in now.

 

[Bartman]

No one official ever said they are only making 1000 foundation units. No one. They'll make a many as they can sell I'm sure.

"Limited Edition" = Limited to as many suckers are willing to pay an extra 20K and give up any hope of receiving an additional $7,500 subsidy.

 

[Sjohnson20]

Not going to bother watching this they are crazy if they really think there are only 1,000 lol

 

[pricedm]

Expensive? Check out the Chevy EV and the $40k starting price! Comes with free unicorn, puppy dog, and gas tank full of hundred dollar bills. /s

 

[pricedm]

"Limited Edition" = Limited to as many suckers are willing to pay an extra 20K and give up any hope of receiving an additional $7,500 subsidy.

Many Cybertruck buyers do not qualify for tax credits. "Extra 20K" Foundation Series comes with $16k+ accessories. And a more defined delivery timeframe.

 

[CyberSurgeon]

Are we permitted to purchase someone’s reservation? If so I would be interested in a foundation series

 

[Sjohnson20]

Are we permitted to purchase someone’s reservation? If so I would be interested in a foundation series

People on Ebay are selling their accounts from Tesla to make it work. Not sure if it really works. I guess if someone never had a Tesla and it's a fresh account? No idea really. It's not permitted by Tesla.

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