Sub-2% conversion rate on Foundation series

[Woodrick]

I'd say that it is a lot more realistic than hypothetical. The production ramp-up is going to take a little time and I suspect that they are allocating the first quarter to the ramp and pushing the Foundation Series out the door. The 20k that I've hear rumored sounds just about like what I'm guessing the first quarter may bring.

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[C T Rick]

Don't see a reason why you would loose your turn in line if you pass on the fs. Your original reservation was not a fs build. It's the people who put down a $100 on the 1 motor 39k model that would either have to be offered a different upgrade or wait indefinitely.

I too haven't received an offer to buy, but I did win a ticket to the reveal party. So in a sense I did win and only cost me 3 days of work, an airline ticket, rental Tesla, hotel, cowboy hat and boots and how can I forget about my $74.00 Rib Dinner.
Yes, that's a Cyber rib @ $34.95 a #.

Rick

 

[cvalue13]

The 20k that I've hear rumored sounds just about like what I'm guessing the first quarter may bring.

there is no 20K target

there’s at present only a timeline target of end date of Q1


meanwhile, doing 20K in Q1 seems extremely unlikely

they build 350 trucks in first 6 weeks of ramp

historically, Tesla’s never pushed out more than ~40K new vehicles in the total of the first 4 quarters after beginning production, and never more than ~5K in the first quarter after production starts, with the bulk of the [40]K coming in the last two quarters

zero reason to think the CT ramp will be ~4X the speed of prior launches, and every reason to think instead it may be initially slower

 

[Bkb13]

These guys were also pretty astonished that they didn’t get a chance to review the Cybertruck. Well maybe it’s because their reporting is pretty shoddy.

 

[Cold.Truth]

Hi,


I agree with many of these posts. Here's my two cents;

Tesla never said how many Foundation Series they would make.

If they make 10,000 FS units, it would amount to less than 1/2 of one percent of the total 2MM reserved units and continue to shrink over time which would be very exclusive indeed.

2012 Founders (Model S) do command a price premium on the used market as many do, unlike me, place a premium on special editions. So, the resale value might be higher for the 2023-2024 Foundation units, all things being equal.

As mentioned by a poster above, Roman and his pal were struggling with facts. There is no lightbar included with the Dual Motor Foundation model, according to the order pages.

Aside from their assumption of 1000 FS units, they also assumed the RN (Reservation Numbers) automatically meant a sequential delivery correlation.

When I bought my (high trim line, fully optioned) 2013 Model S (P85+) it was prioritized in production over standard Model S units by many months, sort of like the premium FS units. When I traded my P85+ for my early 2017 Model 3 (RWD Long Range). I was something like #2500 by VIN number. Tesla’s calculus was reported to have involved MORE than just an RN# - such as country, location, and current Tesla ownership. Some other factors might have been involved, but who knows?


- Stand in line at Tesla Service Center the day before internet orders were opened? – yes, I did this in 2017


- RN number? (how early is your RN number?) – I believe so


- USA? - yes


- California? - yes


- Current Tesla Owner? – yes (I had a 2013 P85+ at the time)


Some of the above and possibly the below might be part of the invite calculus for the FS Cybertruck…


- Do you want the Foundation Series? (FS prioritization certainly appears to be true, sort of like my P85+ prioritization on steroids)


- Are you a Tesla employee?


- Tesla ownership history? (bought one last year vs owned since 2012-2013) – not saying this is for sure, just theorizing about what is possible


- Invested in the company? (shareholder?)


- Etc. It really Would be rather simple to spend a day or a week coming up with what Tesla views as a fair formula to sequence the offers.

My friend was clicking his mouse as the CT reservations opened. I clicked about 15 minutes into it, both of us on Day 1. His RN sequence estimate was 2000-3000 by the (non-Tesla) “civilian websites.” My estimate was 35,000 due to the lost 15 minutes. He got his invite a few weeks ago and I figured since I was 30,000+ RN# behind him, I would get an offer to order in Q3 or Q4 of 2024. It might be quicker if the production ramp was fast, or longer if the ramp was slow or battery supply chain constraints slowed production.

I've never been a guy who likes special edition cars, guns, motorcycles...BUT when Tesla emailed me last week and offered a Foundation Series order, I went for it. Maybe they like my face. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s more than the RN# sequence that comes into play.

I believe that it is a mistake to assume all people should have your value set, as some posters do. As mentioned/replied above, not all of us are candidates for the $7500 rebate/POS. The FS vs standard Cybertruck makes no difference to me. I make over $150k and I’m single. So, it’s not that I’m a “sucker.” I value taking delivery a year early, and the $7500 simply doesn’t factor into it, that’s all.

I hope my experience and opinions help some of you other “suckers” out there. We all have our individual use cases and risk tolerances and should not rush to judgment on the decisions of others. FWIW, I’ve watched something like 100+ YouTube videos on the Cybertruck to date. About half of them are clickbait and lack substantial info, and the rest are either mostly wrong with only a few mostly right. Many people are guessing out there, and many just want clicks so they kick out mediocre info like this video was (at best). Cheers.

 

[RayzorBEV]

I received my email invite yesterday and placed an order for my dream CT, the Cyberbeast ?

 

[Nabilriaz69]

Hi,


I agree with many of these posts. Here's my two cents;

Tesla never said how many Foundation Series they would make.

If they make 10,000 FS units, it would amount to less than 1/2 of one percent of the total 2MM reserved units and continue to shrink over time which would be very exclusive indeed.

2012 Founders (Model S) do command a price premium on the used market as many do, unlike me, place a premium on special editions. So, the resale value might be higher for the 2023-2024 Foundation units, all things being equal.

As mentioned by a poster above, Roman and his pal were struggling with facts. There is no lightbar included with the Dual Motor Foundation model, according to the order pages.

Aside from their assumption of 1000 FS units, they also assumed the RN (Reservation Numbers) automatically meant a sequential delivery correlation.

When I bought my (high trim line, fully optioned) 2013 Model S (P85+) it was prioritized in production over standard Model S units by many months, sort of like the premium FS units. When I traded my P85+ for my early 2017 Model 3 (RWD Long Range). I was something like #2500 by VIN number. Tesla’s calculus was reported to have involved MORE than just an RN# - such as country, location, and current Tesla ownership. Some other factors might have been involved, but who knows?


- Stand in line at Tesla Service Center the day before internet orders were opened? – yes, I did this in 2017


- RN number? (how early is your RN number?) – I believe so


- USA? - yes


- California? - yes


- Current Tesla Owner? – yes (I had a 2013 P85+ at the time)


Some of the above and possibly the below might be part of the invite calculus for the FS Cybertruck…


- Do you want the Foundation Series? (FS prioritization certainly appears to be true, sort of like my P85+ prioritization on steroids)


- Are you a Tesla employee?


- Tesla ownership history? (bought one last year vs owned since 2012-2013) – not saying this is for sure, just theorizing about what is possible


- Invested in the company? (shareholder?)


- Etc. It really Would be rather simple to spend a day or a week coming up with what Tesla views as a fair formula to sequence the offers.

My friend was clicking his mouse as the CT reservations opened. I clicked about 15 minutes into it, both of us on Day 1. His RN sequence estimate was 2000-3000 by the (non-Tesla) “civilian websites.” My estimate was 35,000 due to the lost 15 minutes. He got his invite a few weeks ago and I figured since I was 30,000+ RN# behind him, I would get an offer to order in Q3 or Q4 of 2024. It might be quicker if the production ramp was fast, or longer if the ramp was slow or battery supply chain constraints slowed production.

I've never been a guy who likes special edition cars, guns, motorcycles...BUT when Tesla emailed me last week and offered a Foundation Series order, I went for it. Maybe they like my face. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s more than the RN# sequence that comes into play.

I believe that it is a mistake to assume all people should have your value set, as some posters do. As mentioned/replied above, not all of us are candidates for the $7500 rebate/POS. The FS vs standard Cybertruck makes no difference to me. I make over $150k and I’m single. So, it’s not that I’m a “sucker.” I value taking delivery a year early, and the $7500 simply doesn’t factor into it, that’s all.

I hope my experience and opinions help some of you other “suckers” out there. We all have our individual use cases and risk tolerances and should not rush to judgment on the decisions of others. FWIW, I’ve watched something like 100+ YouTube videos on the Cybertruck to date. About half of them are clickbait and lack substantial info, and the rest are either mostly wrong with only a few mostly right. Many people are guessing out there, and many just want clicks so they kick out mediocre info like this video was (at best). Cheers.

“
I was 30,000+ RN# behind him, I would get an offer to order in Q3 or Q4 of 2024.
“

Really I think you should get an invite this month . Max
people getting invite 44000 to 50000 in RN
Sequence

 

[Cold.Truth]

“
I was 30,000+ RN# behind him, I would get an offer to order in Q3 or Q4 of 2024.
“

Really I think you should get an invite this month . Max
people getting invite 44000 to 50000 in RN
Sequence

Thanks, Max! I did get an invite. It's buried in the third paragraph from the bottom, LOL. Sorry, I guess I could have made it stick out more. My main point is that I got my invite despite being 30,000 places behind my buddy so there might be a few things involved in the invite sequence. I'm happy to share any info if you have questions. To date, I have done three of the steps on the Tesla app; (1) registered [upload some info, current photo, and DL), (2) Trade in [upload info and photos] - offer is pending, and (3)Financing [cash vs loan]. The next icon is "schedule a delivery appointment." There are a few after that as well; Insurance, Final Payment, Agreements, and Delivery Day. Have a great day!

 

[cvalue13]

no, it will not

and not for a good while

 

[Woodrick]

there is no 20K target

there’s at present only a timeline target of end date of Q1


meanwhile, doing 20K in Q1 seems extremely unlikely

they build 350 trucks in first 6 weeks of ramp

historically, Tesla’s never pushed out more than ~40K new vehicles in the total of the first 4 quarters after beginning production, and never more than ~5K in the first quarter after production starts, with the bulk of the [40]K coming in the last two quarters

zero reason to think the CT ramp will be ~4X the speed of prior launches, and every reason to think instead it may be initially slower

You go tell Elon that his estimate is wrong.

And there is a huge expectation that they can ramp a lot faster than before. That's one of the biggest things they have talked about, the vehicle is built for manufacturing.
But that's my opinion.

 

[Jyak]

These guys were also pretty astonished that they didn’t get a chance to review the Cybertruck. Well maybe it’s because their reporting is pretty shoddy.

I really don't watch them any longer. They always give me "I'm angry for no reason and doing my best to not bash Tesla too hard so I don't lose viewers" vibes. Basically the opposite of another popular YT channel that is pedal-to-the-metal Elon Stans in all situations.

 

[cvalue13]

You go tell Elon that his estimate is wrong.

you can’t cite a single word from Elon that makes what I’ve said contrary to Musk’s words

And there is a huge expectation that they can ramp a lot faster than before.

a huge expectation by people with no attention to detail or idea what they more talking about

That's one of the biggest things they have talked about, the vehicle is built for manufacturing.

yes, once they have dialed in a revolutionary new production line building a revolutionary new vehicle design

All of which points to a slower, not faster, ramp - unrelated to how fast it churns out vehicles once ramped

 

[Woodrick]

NO car has FSD today.
Cars that have purchased FSD have been offered access to the current FSD beta program
It appears as if the employee trucks out there now do not have access to the beta software yet
Elon mentioned months ago that getting the beta code in the truck wasn't a priority.

Do the current trucks have autopilot? I don't know.
What will the customer trucks have? No here knows.
Will they have the FSD beta software? No one knows.
When will the FSD software make it to the truck? No one knows.

Can you read between the lines?

No one knows.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

"Limited Edition" = Limited to as many suckers are willing to pay an extra 20K and give up any hope of receiving an additional $7,500 subsidy.

Call me a sucker but I would rather get an order in as soon as possible. I have waited long enough, and I was never going to qualify for the $7,500 rebate anyway so why prolong the misery?

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