Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[CyberJerry]

The capture rate for this forum in my opinion statistically looks pretty low. I got my VIN today and it was a 1/17 captured VIN. We have 13 people that filled out the form for people that received their vehicle. At this point there have been way more than 13 Cybertrucks delivered to regular people. I would say 10 to 20% maximum is the capture rate for orders. 10,000 Foundation Series vehicles seems very probable at this point.

Agreed 100%

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[GuyV]

Is it possible that Elon will announce tomorrow that they have manufactured the 1000th Cybertruck?

 

[CTWheee]

I don’t want to be a Debby downer, but just a consideration:

Before that cutoff, Tesla had a clear way of saying “first quarter” - and they used it with the AWD’s EDD: “Jan-March”

at they very same time, for Beast, they were instead saying “Early 2024”

One could argue that if “Early 2024” meant “first quarter,” they wouldn’t have needed to say it two different ways for AWD vs Beast

so, I’d read “Early 2024” to not mean “first quarter,” but instead something more like “we’re really not sure but not “mid” and not “late’”

This view is supported since then, with the blend of AWD to Beast VINs. Presumably they knew there wouldn’t be a lot of Beasts built before/during “first quarter”, unlike with the AWDA

I do agree with your logic 100% but what if Tesla thought that the split of units was leaning towards the Cyberbeast instead of the AWD?

 

[Wraven]

I think people need a reminder that Elon first mention that he just tried the “performance Cybertruck” in end of Sept 2023…..

This trucks drive train must be very very new if that’s the case.

 

[cvalue13]

I do agree with your logic 100% but what if Tesla thought that the split of units was leaning towards the Cyberbeast instead of the AWD?

yeah, letting you know that definitely wasn’t the case:
Here’s a post from early August, referencing how the delivery event would have an atypical blend of Beasts for obvious optics reasons

almost all will be dual for some time

maybe a few tri's thrown in early so that its not vaporware, but rare as hens teeth

Meanwhile:

I think people need a reminder that Elon first mention that he just tried the “performance Cybertruck” in end of Sept 2023…..

while there were versions before Sept, the core point you’re making is exactly right

and as of September, it still wasn’t finalized in terms of trying out new prototype parts to eek even further performance out of it …


Meanwhile, by the time those initial invites went out with the “early 2024” verbiage, see the blend of RCs and MCs that had been built as Beasts compared to AWD

 

[Coolbreeze704]

two things:

first, in the context above, I was meaning this forum’s order list as a sample pool, 1/3 are beast, so (perhaps) 1/3 of total orders are for a beast

second, I separately do actually think this forum’s order list has a surprisingly high capture rate. There were the existing ~20K members who knew of this site and once received invites/orders/heard they were going out might circle back. Then there were fairly prominent xwitter Cybertruck influenzas and other forums pointing to our order list - lots of folks getting invites etc and taking to the web for info (lord knows Resla wasn’t giving it) would have found this forum/the order list.

what percentage I wouldn’t say. But I’d feel good about a bet of at least 1/3. I’d wouldn’t be too surprised to find out it’s much higher.

but that’s just my personal bet

I was going to pipe in on this and totally agree. I think many would be surprised how many CT res holders have found this site during their 4 year wait. Why wouldn't they?

The pure joy of placing an order after this long wait would lead you back here to share in your excitement.

I will feel like it is north of 70% of orders placed are entered here in our tracker. If I was bold enough to say what I really feel and have thought through, I would say it is more like 90%. How can you place an reservation for this outlandish vehicle 4 years ago and not want to get in contact with others, get updates or just shoot the sht.

Just my opinion.

 

[agordon117]

That's hilarious. Yeah, they don't know much, which isn't their

I was going to pipe in on this and totally agree. I think many would be surprised how many CT res holders have found this site during their 4 year wait. Why wouldn't they?

The pure joy of placing an order after this long wait would lead you back here to share in your excitement.

I will feel like it is north of 70% of orders placed are entered here in our tracker. If I was bold enough to say what I really feel and have thought through, I would say it is more like 90%. How can you place an order for this outlandish vehicle 4 years ago and not want to get in contact with others, get updates or just shoot the sht.

Just my opinion.

There's just no way. Hardly anyone on earth even knows what a forum is.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

That's hilarious. Yeah, they don't know much, which isn't their

There's just no way. Hardly anyone on earth even knows what a forum is.

Except the crazies' that soon after wanted info and went to a computer, used the keyword Cybertruck and magically found COC. Everyone else in the world doesn't matter. If you reserved a CT we do.

Pg 1 with keyword Cybertruck on Google.
Pg 1 with keyword Cybertruck information
Pg 1 #1 Cybertruck forum.

So you place an order for a CT, You know it is a wait. You know there will be lots of changes and news on it and YOU wouldn't want a source to find that news/information, community? Who does that? What do you call Tesla once a month to find out what is going on? Listen to ill informed YT influencers for you updates?

 

[Woodrick]

I was going to pipe in on this and totally agree. I think many would be surprised how many CT res holders have found this site during their 4 year wait. Why wouldn't they?

The pure joy of placing an order after this long wait would lead you back here to share in your excitement.

I will feel like it is north of 70% of orders placed are entered here in our tracker. If I was bold enough to say what I really feel and have thought through, I would say it is more like 90%. How can you place an order for this outlandish vehicle 4 years ago and not want to get in contact with others, get updates or just shoot the sht.

Just my opinion.

Does the fact that the site shows 21,805 members impact your thinking?

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Does the fact that the site shows 21,805 members impact your thinking?

View attachment 36015

View attachment 36016

I WILL START WITH. This is my humble opinion.

Members are a fraction of those that use the site daily. How many lurked for 4 years and joined since November. Including you!

Now that things are heating up people are lurking less and joining more. When they get an invite they join to share their excitement and post their golden ticket for other to see and be excited with them.

Who the heck knows but knowing you we will go around in circles beating a dead horse. That is your mission.

 

[cvalue13]

Does the fact that the site shows 21,805 members impact your thinking?

you keep saying that but I don’t understand the e relevance

 

[cvalue13]

There's just no way. Hardly anyone on earth even knows what a forum is.

people getting invites so far are predominately people who placed pre-orders the day of the reveal, etc

these are Tesla devotees, BEV truck super-fans, etc.

let’s not get it twisted: the group of folks with minute one / day one reservations are not the general population

 

[Coolbreeze704]

you keep saying that but I don’t understand the e relevance

Well there are 100,000 orders placed already and only 21k members so that is proof there are more orders then members.

Oh, wait , more then likely less then 10k orders, oh, possibly less then 2 k orders. Maybe my statement about members makes no sense. I'll just stop now.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

200 members on site right now.

2021 quests on site right now.

 

[Woodrick]

you keep saying that but I don’t understand the e relevance

Can you update the list without being a member?

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