TSLA Took a big dump today! WOW!

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TSLA PRE-MARKET $560.00
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If TSLA falls BELOW $540.00 it will be in FREEFALL


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A short rally but will the Dark Forces prevail?
 

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A short rally but will the Dark Forces prevail?
Somebody's got to say it... My apologies, y'all!

The demand for TSLA stock has nothing to do with TSLA's future profits, and everything to do with Tesla fandom.

As a result, predicting TSLA's future stock price is a Hard Problem.

Looking at Tesla as a business, my target for TSLA is around $85/share. This would give TSLA roughly the same market cap as GM. Considering that Tesla sells about as many cars as Mazda, this target prices includes an awful lot of optimism about their future growth and solar+storage businesses. This target price is also a small fraction of the current TSLA stock price.

But, as I said, TSLA's stock price has nothing to do with their future profits, and everything to do with Tesla fandom. As a result, Hari Seldon is the only person I can think of who has a snowball's chance of predicting TSLA's stock price -- and he's a product of Isaac Asimov's imagination. So, maybe TSLA goes down? Maybe TSLA goes up? Anybody who knows is busy making a fortune by predicting consumer behavior.

Again, my apologies, but someone has got to say it.
 

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Somebody's got to say it... My apologies, y'all!

The demand for TSLA stock has nothing to do with TSLA's future profits, and everything to do with Tesla fandom.

As a result, predicting TSLA's future stock price is a Hard Problem.

Looking at Tesla as a business, my target for TSLA is around $85/share. This would give TSLA roughly the same market cap as GM. Considering that Tesla sells about as many cars as Mazda, this target prices includes an awful lot of optimism about their future growth and solar+storage businesses. This target price is also a small fraction of the current TSLA stock price.

.....

Would any "hypothetical new Mazda EV" company that
1. has grown 100% a year for a couple years.
2. based on current investments (new factory construction) should still grow 100%. for another few years.
3. Higher profit margin because better technology (in battery & manufacturing)
(battery tech: 4680, tabless, dry electrode, etc)
( manufacturing: non-stop battery fab, structural pack, front/rear mega castings).
4. Higher profit margin because NO dealer network that raises costs for new tech product that needs significantly less maintenance.
5. Better access to supplies ( complete batteries & raw materials. In early days to grow fast enough Henry Ford & Ford Co. owned, iron mines, limestone quarries, ore carrying ships, steel mills, forests, and more. Today the MBAs got rid of all that but that stuff was need to grow.).
6. Better top management being made of excellent engineers not MBAs.
(Yes, Ford & GM names are 100 years old. Current management is not same as those that built companies when there was high growth & multiple scrappy competitors. Today you have status quo maintainers.)


What is Amazon share price vs Walmart
Apple vs Nokia, Motorola, Blackberry
Samsung vs Kodak
Microsoft, Apple, Dell vs IBM, Xerox

Today, for Tesla stock, $900 might be high a little early but if today if share price was $85 (after split) it would be way too low.
 
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Crissa

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Again, my apologies, but someone has got to say it.
The previous post shows that the current price shift has nothing to do with Tesla or its fanboys specifically. Money is flowing out of the tech market that flowed in last year and is going elsewhere.

Last year there was nothing to invest in, because pandemic. This year there's lots of invest in.

-Crissa
 

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A short rally but will the Dark Forces prevail?
Today it bounced at 550ish. I agree that if it breaches 539 it could continue falling. My hope is for this multi-month down trend to reverse itself before that happens...which will depend on some GOOD news coming out. (Possible good news being a less-than spectacular F150 reveal tonight.)

I agree with the previous posts as well. TSLA is extremely overvalued. BUT, it's overvalued for some very good reasons (and also due to the absurd bubbleiciousness of this current whacked-out stock market).

It's 50/50 up or down in the short term. Will just depend on the news. My experience with this stock is that it will probably remain over valued, and stuck range-bound (Say 540-740?) until some big news happens, or the overall market crashes (which is inevitable).

If it keeps dropping, I'll buy at some point in the future when it seems way lower. I certainly believe the long term prospects for TSLA are excellent.
 

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