we may be closer than we think to the end of the foundation series upcharge

[CyberTW]

I think this is definitely possible because I put in a reservation one year after the reveal, at around the 1.5 million reservation more, and I have already been invited to configure my foundation truck.

This means that Tesla is nearing the end of their list. Not too many people getting foundation trucks.

I was 2.5 years after and am about 1.3 in line.. RN 1173xx

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[fgaryamy]

Probably one of the best assessments I’ve read on the FS / demand.

All this said… I saw another post of yours that you have pulled the trigger on FS knowing that non-FS was around the corner. I’d be interested (and I’d imagine others who are on the fence) in why you decided to pull the trigger now vs wait?

For me, I also pulled the trigger knowing non FS will be here in 7 months. I ordered now due to timing of needing a new car and assigning value to the FS options. I wanted FSD (including auto park in this giant), the all terrains and home backup. That’s not worth $20k.. maybe 12-15? So in my head my impatience tax is 5-8k to get the car now vs a year from now. Not a lot when I’m an old man looking back at this.

That’s my justification for dropping $100k and sticking to it!

Yep. You made the right decision for the right reason. You only get to go around once. Too often people make decisions based on price. Often other priorities are much more important. After all is said and done are you happy in the end and for the rest of your life? Not, is it worth the money?

 

[fgaryamy]

Yep. You made the right decision for the right reason. You only get to go around once. Too often people make decisions based on price. Often other priorities are much more important. After all is said and done are you happy in the end and for the rest of your life? Not, is it worth the money?

Just an aside. This may be pertinent to this thread. I say this after reading mosts of the comments so far.
This was posted in late Nov 2023.

https://electrek.co/2023/11/28/tesl...crowdsourced Cybertruck,it was over 1 million.

 

[Cyberphase1]

I get it. We have all waited many years for our CT to show up. The FS variant was a blow to the gut. The price is more than we expected/wanted/can afford.

However, the writing is on the website and evident in the FS order delivery windows. FS is here for 2024 deliveries and the refular variant for deliveries in 2025.

Regular CTs show delivery staring in 2025 (just go to the site and check it out).

AWD FS is now showing delivery in July-Sep with Beast Oct-Dec. So, this year's production is quickly filling up.

The good news is that means we will probably start seeing regular CT orders (with 2025 delivery dates) in the next few months when the 2024 production schedule is full.

CTs in used car lots? Yes, there are some that took those on when people sold them - not an indication of FS drying up.

People receiving VINs shortly after orders? Yes, when all is aligned, a CT is available that was passed after produced, the next in that area gets it. Nothing new, we have seen this a few times since Feb/March. Not any indication of FS drying up.

High reservation numbers getting invites? Nope, nothing there either.

Once production started ramping in March, combined with those that bought something else, changed their mind, their life situation changed, or they just did not want a FS variant, invites were going out in (roughly) RN number blocks of 20,000 each week. I used that to guess when my invite would arrive and was only off a couple of weeks. Production has since increased and they are going through larger blocks - so, not an indication of FS drying up.

FS invites will go out until 2024 production slots are full. When that occurs, we will see regular invites start going out with 2025 delivery dates.

Just my thoughts, but everything out there points that way and it makes business sense based upon how this rollout is going.

My number is RN114..... I get invite and ordered CB for Oct-Dec. Don't know why I got invite. Maybe stocks who knows how this all works.

 

[Efreniere]

When they have 2 million + reservations, they have a whole lot more to offer the foundation model to. It's reasonable for people to wait, but people should also consider that if Tesla cycles back to the beginning of the reservations that passed on the foundation model, the base 80k model will probably have big spike in demand... So if you are already 300k+ in the reservation #s... You'll be back to waiting for them to offer you a base model all over again. So passing on the foundation trim can easily mean you will wait another year unless you were early reservation #.

I got my order invitation a few days ago, and I am almost 700,000 on the reservation list. I did not order, as I cannot justify $100k for a truck.

 

[CyberTW]

I got my order invitation a few days ago, and I am almost 700,000 on the reservation list. I did not order, as I cannot justify $100k for a truck.

What was your RN?

 

[Efreniere]

What was your RN?

11382xxxx Aug 10, 2020

 

[roadrunner32]

Probably one of the best assessments I’ve read on the FS / demand.

All this said… I saw another post of yours that you have pulled the trigger on FS knowing that non-FS was around the corner. I’d be interested (and I’d imagine others who are on the fence) in why you decided to pull the trigger now vs wait?

For me, I also pulled the trigger knowing non FS will be here in 7 months. I ordered now due to timing of needing a new car and assigning value to the FS options. I wanted FSD (including auto park in this giant), the all terrains and home backup. That’s not worth $20k.. maybe 12-15? So in my head my impatience tax is 5-8k to get the car now vs a year from now. Not a lot when I’m an old man looking back at this.

That’s my justification for dropping $100k and sticking to it!

I agree, will pay the extra amount to not have to wait another year and half or so. but its still too soon, it needs to be equipped with self drive and auto pilot, I DO NOT LIKE trying to justify shelling out a $100 every month. And that subscription price may go up, you know, do you think?. Also want more quiet tires.

 

[RoboTaxi]

I don’t see the non FS trucks being delivered before late 2025, I think all saying so is just wishful thinking . Not near as many ppl are passing up the invite as there are ppl waiting to get their hands on one ( especially the Beast )

Especially with the CT on a global tour right now.

 

[GatorCyber]

As tempting as it is, the 80K truck is right around the corner. Plus i want the extra efficiency of core tires.

I'll bet the non-FS will have a $5k option for the AT wheels and tires. I wouldn't accept the AS on the FS

 

[fgaryamy]

But what about if the FS conversion rate is closer to 2%? Most people put their $100 down when they thought the truck was $50k. 20% is absurd conversion rate expectation with the price increase and a good portion of people walking away from the brand since 2019 due to politics, it's nowhere near 20%.

I think the conversion will be in a U curve. Early reservations day 1 were probably pretty high, but even this forum shows a lot of day 1 enthusiasts are waiting. The people a few months and years out are probably very low conversion.

Where it gets interesting is the people who reserved in the last few months after seeing CTs driving around. These are people who probably didn't watch the launch and maybe knew nothing about the CT until it was driving around. When they made their reservation, they knew the $100k+ price, so these people presumably are committed at that price. Are there 1k people who made these last few month reservations? 10k? 100k? All of these people should be cutting the 2 million earlier reservation holders who passed the FS if Tesla has a true commitment to its shareholders.

I feel as though we may be closer than we think to the end of the foundation series upcharge.

I was assigned a vin that 3 different people had passed on, (i also passed on it).

Also people are going from order to vin in a matter of days, the production rate is accelerating and we are just a few weeks away from the 20K vin mark.

I feel as though it is really hard for tesla to justify a "limited edition" after 20K have been mass produced.

I say all this selfishly as I want a cyber soon but I don't want to pay the foundation tax.

From loooking at what the "experts" are saying about the early reservers (2 million of them) and the RNs assigned to the Cybertruck and the current production of about 1000 cts per month

11382xxxx Aug 10, 2020

I feel as though we may be closer than we think to the end of the foundation series upcharge.

I was assigned a vin that 3 different people had passed on, (i also passed on it).

Also people are going from order to vin in a matter of days, the production rate is accelerating and we are just a few weeks away from the 20K vin mark.

I feel as though it is really hard for tesla to justify a "limited edition" after 20K have been mass produced.

I say all this selfishly as I want a cyber soon but I don't want to pay the foundation tax.

If my calculations are correct, based on data from this webste


And a guess of aproximately 1,000 cts leaving the factory each month, as of end of May, we're about 25% through the early reservation list or about 500,000 RNs. At 25% each 7 monyths, we'll be into 2026 before the list is emptied. Of course, everyone believes the manufacturing rate will increase pretty rapidly over time. But I believe it'll definitely be well into 2025 before the invitations to the early reservers is completed.

 

[Mini2nut]

115's are getting invites already.

The assembly plant is supposedly cranking out roughly 1,000 CT's per week.

 

[TyPope]

From loooking at what the "experts" are saying about the early reservers (2 million of them) and the RNs assigned to the Cybertruck and the current production of about 1000 cts per month


If my calculations are correct, based on data from this webste


And a guess of aproximately 1,000 cts leaving the factory each month, as of end of May, we're about 25% through the early reservation list or about 500,000 RNs. At 25% each 7 monyths, we'll be into 2026 before the list is emptied. Of course, everyone believes the manufacturing rate will increase pretty rapidly over time. But I believe it'll definitely be well into 2025 before the invitations to the early reservers is completed.

Your assumption is that CT production will no increase? They are already able to produce 1,000 per week per Tesla. They'll be at 2,000 per week by October at the latest unless something goes wrong with production. Watch and see.

 

[fgaryamy]

Your assumption is that CT production will no increase? They are already able to produce 1,000 per week per Tesla. They'll be at 2,000 per week by October at the latest unless something goes wrong with production. Watch and see.

Thanks for the info.

 

[Crissa]

Just an aside. This may be pertinent to this thread. I say this after reading mosts of the comments so far.
This was posted in late Nov 2023.

https://electrek.co/2023/11/28/tesla-increases-cybertruck-pre-order-deposit-but-reverts/#:~:text=By 2021, a crowdsourced Cybertruck,it was over 1 million.

They had changed the pre-order for everything else to $250 so it was probably a server update that overwrote it.

-Crissa

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