Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[CyberCFP]

If it's a light duty truck it will have to have airbags. There is a truck rating that doesn't require airbags but we don't think the CT will be in that category. Regardless, we have no reason to think the production model will not have airbags, any more than thinking it won't have seatbelts.



Depends on the definition of "easily". With the right tool, all side mirrors are easily removed.



Why do you think they are not legal? Because it's a solid line all the way across like an old Mercury Sable?

Ha that's an interesting comparison. I wonder if laws regarding headlights were updated due to that car. I've never seen a light bar before the CyberTruck. What year Sable is that?

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[greggertruck]

Bugger... I'm about 200k in line, so likely 2025 for me. Well, we don't know how many of the first 200k will actually accept delivery, so maybe earlier.

Half. Maybe less. I’m very serious. It’s rough climate for an expensive truck. Of course, it may not be expensive and I’m totally wrong though

 

[Paradox]

What year Sable is that?

Second generation, 1992-1995. It looks like 1st gen, 89-91 had a lit center light as well that connected to the headlights.

They got rid of it for gen 3, 96-99 and gen 4, 00-05.

Here’s a 1st Generation:

 

[Ogre]

Bugger... I'm about 200k in line, so likely 2025 for me. Well, we don't know how many of the first 200k will actually accept delivery, so maybe earlier.

I’m betting you get your truck in 2024.

 

[ldjessee]

Has no one seen the F-150 Ligtning?

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/Mkkpk6/s3/for-f-150-lightning-front-light-bar-with-tint.jpg

If a continuous light bar is illegal, Ford is going to get fined a lot...

 

[Ogre]

I have no prediction, and I admittedly have not been keeping as close an eye on production and how Tesla has address the legality of the Cybertruck as closely as you all, but I have some questions that I'm hoping someone can answer. I apologize if any of the following have been discussed ad nauseam.

1) There obviously have to be airbags. Has Musk addressed this?
2) Will the NHTSA allow for the side mirrors to be easily removed?
3) The headlights on every truck we've seen, to my knowledge, aren't legal. Is there going to be a change to them?

Just in general, Tesla builds cars. I’d expect all of the normal things people who build cars like regulatory compliance will be addressed.

More specifically, I seriously doubt Any government agency has a rule about how difficult it is to remove mirrors on a truck. But given their recent track record of making fairly Tesla specific regulations and rulings, I wouldn’t be surprised if they created such a rule.

Typically “Easy to remove” components are considered a good thing since it means the vehicle is more serviceable.

 

[tidmutt]

Half. Maybe less. I’m very serious. It’s rough climate for an expensive truck. Of course, it may not be expensive and I’m totally wrong though

I’m betting you get your truck in 2024.

I'm wondering if the first 100K or so are the fanbois though and are more committed? I say that as a fanboi.

Hard to say in the end, I won't be unhappy if 50% convert but honestly, I have my Y and I still get excited about driving it after 8 months. So I don't mind waiting a bit longer for the CT. Plus, I'm going to take a bath on depreciation given prices are heading down and like a nong I bought at pretty much peak price. LOL

Thinking about putting the Y on Turo when my CT drops.

Anyway, maybe 1.5-2.5 years away, either one is just fine although I might feel differently when I start seeing them driving around.

 

[greggertruck]

I'm wondering if the first 100K or so are the fanbois though and are more committed? I say that as a fanboi.

Would agree, I think we see some fanboys not able to afford - but the first 150k preorders or so, those are day one so I'd say they're gonna be 70% where as you'll see it drop off from there.

I DO see many comments of "if it's not 40k, I won't buy it". It's not gonna be 40k, spoiler.

 

[Ogre]

I'm wondering if the first 100K or so are the fanbois though and are more committed? I say that as a fanboi.

I’m sure the first 100k are likely to pull the trigger even if just to flip it. But even there you will have some drop out or delay.

• Foreign reservation holders. — I can think of 3 Aussies, 1 Brit, 1 Mexican, and 2-3 Canadians on this forum with lower reservations. The spreadsheet suggested 25% of early orders were international.
• Can’t afford the initial truck but want the later one (at least 1 or 2 here on the forums I think in this boat).
• Ordered multiple vehicles but can only get financing for 1 (At least 1 person on the forum in this boat)
• Lost emails/ account info.
• Dead (Sadly 1 former forum member).

Most likely the foreign reservation holders will be delayed at least 18 months before deliveries start (Not rooting this, just an estimate. Not trying to cut you guys out!).

If they don’t have a truck in the $60k ballpark for the first year, I think a LOT of people will delay or drop entirely. Me personally and many others here ordered specifically after seeing the pricing. I know on Twitter the situation is similar.


But the big reason I figure you’ll get yours in 2024 isn’t due to that. Its because I think production will hit 250k by early-mid 2024!

Hard to say in the end, I won't be unhappy if 50% convert but honestly, I have my Y and I still get excited about driving it after 8 months.

The good news is I’ve owned mine for 2 years and it is still absolutely fantastic and fun so that feeling doesn’t go away.

 

[Ogre]

Would agree, I think we see some fanboys not able to afford - but the first 150k preorders or so, those are day one so I'd say they're gonna be 70% where as you'll see it drop off from there.

I DO see many comments of "if it's not 40k, I won't buy it". It's not gonna be 40k, spoiler.

I do think we’ll see a single motor truck and it will be in the $40-50k ballpark.

But I suspect much like the $35k Model 3 and the Model Y SR, it’ll be the last model released maybe 3+ years after launch. Model Y SR was only produced for a few weeks then dropped.

Keep in mind. A lot of people can’t afford a $60k truck. Tesla is going to want to tap that market. That’s why they launched the $40k truck initially.

 

[greggertruck]

I do think we’ll see a single motor truck and it will be in the $40-50k ballpark.

But I suspect much like the $35k Model 3 and the Model Y SR, it’ll be the last model released maybe 3+ years after launch. Model Y SR was only produced for a few weeks then dropped.

Keep in mind. A lot of people can’t afford a $60k truck. Tesla is going to want to tap that market. That’s why they launched the $40k truck initially.

Hope vs reality. But, I definitely wouldn't spend 60k + on any EV truck BUT a Tesla.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Here a quick and dirty optimistic production estimate graph to get an idea of when your order number could be up. This is based on reaching 1000 units by end of September 2023 and reaching Giga Shanghai MY production rates by July 2024. So December looks good for me...

And for those that missed the reveal night boat:

I think a lot depends on whether they start with a 2 motor or 3/4 motor as far as our place in line and where we fit in this graph. I am in the 1st 45k orders for dual motor but if they start with 3/4 motor 1st then I would be pushed out until mid late 2024 I would think.

 

[Ogre]

Hope vs reality. But, I definitely wouldn't spend 60k + on any EV truck BUT a Tesla.

Tesla isn’t just making EVs for the people who can afford $60k vehicles. They want the whole market.

Next vehicle is a car which costs half as much to manufacture as the Model 3/Y. The strategy is to start at the higher end and move downmarket as demand dictates so they can continue exponential growth. Very difficult to sell 20m vehicles at $60k+

 

[greggertruck]

Tesla isn’t just making EVs for the people who can afford $60k vehicles. They want the whole market.

Next vehicle is a car which costs half as much to manufacture as the Model 3/Y. The strategy is to start at the higher end and move downmarket as demand dictates so they can continue exponential growth. Very difficult to sell 20m vehicles at $60k+

I know and agree totally, it's just where it is right now. I think their 20m vehicles will not be the American Teslas we know and love. It's gonna be BYD china cars, OR MEXICO.

The simplest comparison, if you're musical... Squier vs American Fender.

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