What's up with the focus on States? I am in Virginia

[stevegshi]

I think because I'm weird and just looking at all of the posts I have come up with my own theory. Others have mentioned the theory but I do believe it has to do with not only distance from the factory but as well as larger service centers and weather. I believe they are trying to delay delivering to colder states so that they don't have to worry about charging issues and complaints. Also looking at the number of reservations compared to service centers It lines up almost perfectly. Florida California and Texas all have the most locations for service centers. People in my state with higher reservation numbers that ordered after I did have already got it as well. I asked my service center if they were trained on the Cybertruck and none of them are So I believe that is why I am being delayed as well.

I think this is very reasonable theory. Only that if Tesla could come out and confirm it officially. The lack of transparency and communication is what drives people crazy.

Tomorrow marks the 73rd day since I placed my order on December 16 while still waiting for a VIN. I know a few others in Virginia are in the same boat.

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[stevegshi]

 

[agordon117]

anybody know when was the cutoff date for Jan-March delivery? I thought it was middle January, but not 100% sure. I have one friend, also in Virginia, who placed order at the end of December and got the same delivery estimate of January to March.

On Jan 10 when I ordered, it said Jan-Mar.

 

[stevegshi]

On Jan 10 when I ordered, it said Jan-Mar.

Thanks! That's what I thought.

Assuming that you would get your CT towards the end of March, for people who ordered 3-4 weeks ahead of you (2nd wave, middle December), they should get the CTs early or Middle of March? If so, these people should at least have their VINs now given it is less than 3 weeks from middle of March.

Unless they manage to shorten the waiting period between VIN assignment and final delivery to 1 week or so. Perhaps issuing VINs when the vehicles are already at the local delivery center, instead of when the vehicle is about to get shipped out or just rolled off assembly line.

 

[cgladue]

anybody know when was the cutoff date for Jan-March delivery? I thought it was middle January, but not 100% sure. I have one friend, also in Virginia, who placed order at the end of December and got the same delivery estimate of January to March.

yes the cutoff is roughly the 15th of each month then they move forward 1 month

January 15th for Jan-March
February 15th for Feb-April
March 15th for Mar-May

 

[cgladue]

this is the latest map i have

 

[stevegshi]

yes the cutoff is roughly the 15th of each month then they move forward 1 month

January 15th for Jan-March
February 15th for Feb-April
March 15th for Mar-May

man, I was hoping the delivery estimate is based on the number of orders and production estimate, rather than on a simple 30-day progression.

 

[cgladue]

man, I was hoping the delivery estimate is based on the number of orders and production estimate, rather than on a simple 30-day progression.

its not exact, but i dont know how much of that is people not paying attention and entering something wrong or what, but its pretty darn close. if you take the order list and sort it by order date that field is almost always on the 15th or +- 1 day moved ahead 1 month

 

[agordon117]

Thanks! That's what I thought.

Assuming that you would get your CT towards the end of March, for people who ordered 3-4 weeks ahead of you (2nd wave, middle December), they should get the CTs early or Middle of March? If so, these people should at least have their VINs now given it is less than 3 weeks from middle of March.

Unless they manage to shorten the waiting period between VIN assignment and final delivery to 1 week or so. Perhaps issuing VINs when the vehicles are already at the local delivery center, instead of when the vehicle is about to get shipped out or just rolled off assembly line.

Tesla told Jan 10th buyers that the ETA was Jan-Mar. not "Mar". They knew they wouldn't deliver a single Jan 10th order in January. So I have very little hope that My Jan 10th order will be delivered in march if not one single Jan order was delivered in Jan, or even Feb. Beyond my general pessimism about the ETA, the current facts are as follows:

Order to vin is increasing. 60-70 days is the norm now. Vin to delivery is also getting longer. Especially in places where few/no trucks have yet been delivered. A few people are getting lucky with 2-4 day vin to delivery, but the initial batches of trucks to each delivery center are taking 2-3 weeks for transport, and then have to sit there for a week before delivery is allowed. After that, people are getting deliveries delayed close to the delivery date...

The math doesn't add up at all. I initially thought if I don't have a vin this week, march is out of the question. Now, talking it out... march doesn't seem likely at all. Not unless something drastic changes about the delivery logistics. 60 days to VIN (which at this point would be a miracle) puts me at march 10th to vin. Plus 2-3 weeks for transit puts me at march 24th-31st. Plus a week for prep before delivery is April. But, again, order to VIN seems to be climbing as we go. so probably figure 70 or 75 days to VIN.

 

[stevegshi]

this is the latest map i have

I know you previously chose not to include VIP deliveries, but it's nice to see you still include them but with a different color now. Looking at the latest map, the east coast is still trailing behind.

If weather is one of the concerns, then OR and WA would experience the same issues on range due to cold temperatures.

 

[cgladue]

I know you previously chose not to include VIP deliveries, but it's nice to see you still include them but with a different color now. Looking at the latest map, the east coast is still trailing behind.

If weather is one of the concerns, then OR and WA would experience the same issues on range due to cold temperatures.

yea maybe, right now i think theres like 2 WA and 1 OR order that has vin/delivered in those states so its super low volume, maybe testing it out ? not sure.

 

[stevegshi]

Tesla told Jan 10th buyers that the ETA was Jan-Mar. not "Mar". They knew they wouldn't deliver a single Jan 10th order in January. So I have very little hope that My Jan 10th order will be delivered in march if not one single Jan order was delivered in Jan, or even Feb. Beyond my general pessimism about the ETA, the current facts are as follows:

Order to vin is increasing. 60-70 days is the norm now. Vin to delivery is also getting longer. Especially in places where few/no trucks have yet been delivered. A few people are getting lucky with 2-4 day vin to delivery, but the initial batches of trucks to each delivery center are taking 2-3 weeks for transport, and then have to sit there for a week before delivery is allowed. After that, people are getting deliveries delayed close to the delivery date...

The math doesn't add up at all. I initially thought if I don't have a vin this week, march is out of the question. Now, talking it out... march doesn't seem likely at all. Not unless something drastic changes about the delivery logistics. 60 days to VIN (which at this point would be a miracle) puts me at march 10th to vin. Plus 2-3 weeks for transit puts me at march 24th-31st. Plus a week for prep before delivery is April. But, again, order to VIN seems to be climbing as we go. so probably figure 70 or 75 days to VIN.

As much as I hate to see things happening at the very end of the forecasted time frame (because it feels like people either procrastinate the hell out of things till the last minute or are bad on estimate things), I hate even more of the dead silence: if delivery is postponed for certain states or for people ordered after certain dates, Tesla should come out and make a courtesy notice so these affected buyers could plan ahead. If there is no delay/postpone notice, then people would assume that the production and logistics are improving and delivery by the end of March is still achievable: CTs are on the rail heading to east coast maybe?

I asked Grok on X about the average time of shipping vehicle by rail from Texas to the east coast. The answer is 7 to 10 days.

 

[stevegshi]

Another FL order cut the line. Both my RN and order date are in front of his.

I asked Grok to rank the top5 east coast states with themost number of Tesla service centers, and here's the answer:
1. Florida: 8 service centers;
2. New York: 5 service centers;
3. Massachusetts: 3 service centers;
4. New Jersy: 4 service centers;
5. Connecticut: 2 service centers.


I think it is probably not accurate because I know Virginia has 4 or more service centers: Vienna, Sterling, Richmond, VA beach/Norfork, but still FL does have the most of service centers on the east coast.

 

[CYBRTREK]

The cutoff happened right after I configured on Jan 17th. The next am reports were seeing Feb to April.

 

[LonelyCTfan]

I know you previously chose not to include VIP deliveries, but it's nice to see you still include them but with a different color now. Looking at the latest map, the east coast is still trailing behind.

If weather is one of the concerns, then OR and WA would experience the same issues on range due to cold temperatures.

Yeah but in Oregon we only have about 35 days of winter left technically. They are being delivered south west in the state, where it is warmer. Like I said just a theory, but training people also being included. Less miles back to Texas if need be too haha jk

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