When to expect delivery when i'm 270,000 place in line.

zyloyd

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I am 270,000 place in line for cybertruck order. I ordered a tri motor. Is it correct for me to expect delivery 3 years after the start of production?
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charliemagpie

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Hello new person

Maybe for the Ford, and 25 years for the Hummer. But I expect you will be 12-18 months away for the CT
 

John K

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Pure guess. If start production in mid 2023, I think you have a chance for mid to late 2025. The plus/minus on the guess is too great to take the guess seriously. I am sitting at 195k and do not like my prognostications.
 

charliemagpie

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Wasn't it just recently , the Germans will deliver 250,000 drives per year. Even if that was click bait :

Elons statement 'It will take 3 yrs to catch up'

How many Giga castings per year ?

We will be 12 months into the factory, testing will be ongoing from now.
They will fire out quick smart from the word go. We will ramp to 5000 per week well within 6 months. imo
 


Jhodgesatmb

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Is that 270K for the trim or 270K total? At the time when we reserved (I am at 250K total) the number of tri-motors ordered was around 40%. In the old thinking, where tri-motors we’re going to be made first, that would have put you in the first 100K. Probably still somewhere around 12 months. But as said by others there are so many factors that it is anyone’s guess. I am still hoping for 12 months or less myself.
 

audi2tesla

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I'm probably 498,000th in line, don't expect mine realistically until 2025 if i'm lucky. Ordered Tri as well.
 

CompMaster

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I am around 5xxK, I believe last I heard they were around 1.5m. But then they started refunding/canceling many if not all non North America orders. (US, Canada, Mexico)
 

FrostyCT

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Many orders will not be fulfilled because some have given up, some have ordered ridiculous quantitys that they won't go thru with others won't want to pay price or cannot afford it anymore.
 

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I am around 5xxK, I believe last I heard they were around 1.5m. But then they started refunding/canceling many if not all non North America orders. (US, Canada, Mexico)
They did? "... many if not all"? That's news to me, and I have not missed anything that appeared on this site. Do you have any more details?
 


Jhodgesatmb

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Factors affecting delivery (please add to list):

1. Reservation #
2. Trim (tri - 40%, dual - 40%, single - 20%)
3. Trim production position (quad first, tri second, dual third, single fourth)
4. Geographic location (close to Austin, Texas, major Tesla regions, USA, Canada, everywhere)
5. Normal conversion to order (30%?, economy, stock price, family emergency, retirement, etc.)
6. Order something else (20%?)

Ad hoc example: 270K reservation #
After normal conversion loss: 189K
After tri-motor trim: 76K
After Quad sub trim (at maybe 40%?): 30K

I know that this is extremely optimistic and full of BS guesses, but it paints a hopeful picture...
 
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ED_SFO

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Wasn't it just recently , the Germans will deliver 250,000 drives per year. Even if that was click bait :

Elons statement 'It will take 3 yrs to catch up'

How many Giga castings per year ?

We will be 12 months into the factory, testing will be ongoing from now.
They will fire out quick smart from the word go. We will ramp to 5000 per week well within 6 months. imo
Takes about a year for the factory to get to 5k a week consistently and Austin has been making/testing cars since the last quarter of 2021. Now being almost August they havnt hit 1k a week yet or very close to...ramp takes a good while. You can look at it as it take about 3 months to ramp each additional 1k cars a week.
 

Blue Steel

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I think A LOT of people will not convert their reservation to an order (in the beginning, at least.) So much time has passed that many people are in a different spot than they were nearly 3 years ago. It also seems like a lot of people thought the Cybertruck was really just a concept and the finished product would look like a regular truck.

All this to say, when it comes time to actually write a check I think your spot in line will change. People may move way up in line. Yeah, this is probably some wishful thinking, since my spot in line is well after yours.
 
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AlexD

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I'm probably 498,000th in line, don't expect mine realistically until 2025 if i'm lucky. Ordered Tri as well.
I’m roughly 450000.
However with the coming recession how many ahead of me will delay or fall out? Also how many ahead are outside the USA and get shuffled back?
I think our wait will be shorter than you expected.
 

kbolt

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You're raw reservation position is 270k.

Remove everyone not in the US ahead of you and your new number is 135k.

Because you're tri-motor trim your new number is 67.5k.

If you can upgrade to quad motor then cut it in half again: 33.75k.

If you're in Texas or one of the touching states cut it in half again: 16.875k.

It's likely you'll get yours before the end of 2024.
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