When to expect delivery when i'm 270,000 place in line.

charliemagpie

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Austin would have had to bootstrap all aspects of operation, from parts supply and movement, to training a skeleton staff into a full contingent. etc etc.. the etc' is extensive... basically everything... toilet, tea room, rules, guidelines...

Can't compare the model Y ramp to future ramps. It is not an example whatsoever.

Fremont is a reworked building,,, Shanghai was a new building... Austin and Germany are new buildings.

We have no benchmarks, other than greenfield.

The building will be in operation for 12 months once the CT gets going... many of model Y staff will move onto the CT production line.. In essence, the start of the Cybertruck ramp will be manned by experienced people already trained to use all the machines.

The ramp will not start mid 2023… but much earlier… there will be a core team at all ends of the production line experienced enough to train the newcomers. Cross pollination of skills will be light speed compared to Y.

I've read through these post and the weight is against me lol... but I stand firm. For the record, I say you are all wrong. Ha. !! ;)

Production will fly out.
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carpedatum

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You're raw reservation position is 270k.

Remove everyone not in the US ahead of you and your new number is 135k.

Because you're tri-motor trim your new number is 67.5k.

If you can upgrade to quad motor then cut it in half again: 33.75k.

If you're in Texas or one of the touching states cut it in half again: 16.875k.

It's likely you'll get yours before the end of 2024.
I like that train of thought (and not just because I now live in southern New Mexico and have a much lower reservation number). kbolt listed the considerations that can put the most early CT revenue in Tesla's grasp and, as they say, one should follow the money. If you agree to buy what Tesla's actually making first-off, and are closer to the source, the "raw" reservation number won't really amount to your long-distant slot on some lengthy virtual conveyor belt.

OTOH if you want the cheapest possible build and live on the other side of planet Earth from Austin, it might be useful to think about "if" rather than "when"...

Still wish I hadn't slept on it, on the evening of the reveal, before dropping a whole $100 on my reservation. However as noted by many here, if history with other models is any guide, your reservation number is just one contributing factor. Tesla is a public company. Quarterly revenue figures have a lot to say. If you can decide to buy what they have decided to make first, close to where they're making it, you will probably see it much sooner.
 

Old Pro

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I am 270,000 place in line for cybertruck order. I ordered a tri motor. Is it correct for me to expect delivery 3 years after the start of production?
How do you determine from your order number what your place is? I reserved my CT on day #2 of reservations
 

John K

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How do you determine from your order number what your place is? I reserved my CT on day #2 of reservations
Your reservation number - 112,744,100 - a guesstimate on the number of other model orders over the two days = your reservation number.

I ordered day two also. I just use zero for other model orders for ease in estimate.
 

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I am 270,000 place in line for cybertruck order. I ordered a tri motor. Is it correct for me to expect delivery 3 years after the start of production?
So, I'm 216,000 in line, when I checked the online reservation figure-outer it told me August 2023. This was back in 2020 or so. I remember thinking, no friggin' way is it going to take that long. Now, it seems a little pie-in-the-sky. I think they'll produce 100,000 per year pretty quickly. So 3 years sounds about right. Sheez.
 


SparkChaser

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I ordered on Dec 20.2019 the tracker is saying April 2024. I originally ordered the single motor but switched to the dual.
 

Macgyverfever

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I pre-ordered Dec 26th 2019 after laughing at it in Nov then falling in-love with it a month later (wtf who does that?) and am at ~470,000 in line with tri.

I am 37 and have a 2 yo, 4 yo, and just found out two weeks ago that I'm having a 0 month old sometime in March of 2023. I sold my truck 4 years ago and bought my wife from Sydney a '15 Honda Accord exact same model and year (wrong side steering wheel of course) as she had before she had to sell hers to move to Tennesee (this poor woman). We both work at the same company so have no other cars, and after test-driving a Tesla performance for the first time in 2020 (shouldn't have done that), I - AM - SICK - AND - TIRED of that mother $^#&ing Honda (I was Honda-bumped last month btw kinda funny).

Anyway sorry apparently I needed to tell you people I'll never meet this information and don't know why other than the fact I have decided to keep my Model Y reservation for this Sep, and if I can get the wife to commit to it and sell the Honda, then I'm selling blood, plasma, vital organs, starting a business, whoring myself on the street (nobody will want me scratch that) whatever in the hell I have to do to GET THAT DAMN TRUCK!..

But I really hope I don't run out of time... (first-world country problems)
 

Jhodgesatmb

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I pre-ordered Dec 26th 2019 after laughing at it in Nov then falling in-love with it a month later (wtf who does that?) and am at ~470,000 in line with tri.

I am 37 and have a 2 yo, 4 yo, and just found out two weeks ago that I'm having a 0 month old sometime in March of 2023. I sold my truck 4 years ago and bought my wife from Sydney a '15 Honda Accord exact same model and year (wrong side steering wheel of course) as she had before she had to sell hers to move to Tennesee (this poor woman). We both work at the same company so have no other cars, and after test-driving a Tesla performance for the first time in 2020 (shouldn't have done that), I - AM - SICK - AND - TIRED of that mother $^#&ing Honda (I was Honda-bumped last month btw kinda funny).

Anyway sorry apparently I needed to tell you people I'll never meet this information and don't know why other than the fact I have decided to keep my Model Y reservation for this Sep, and if I can get the wife to commit to it and sell the Honda, then I'm selling blood, plasma, vital organs, starting a business, whoring myself on the street (nobody will want me scratch that) whatever in the hell I have to do to GET THAT DAMN TRUCK!..

But I really hope I don't run out of time... (first-world country problems)
Get the Y and good luck on the truck!
 

Ogre

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Pure guess. If start production in mid 2023, I think you have a chance for mid to late 2025. The plus/minus on the guess is too great to take the guess seriously. I am sitting at 195k and do not like my prognostications.
Well keep in mind 25% of orders are overseas so that bumps you forward a fair bit.

I am more optimistic than you. I figure if they start production in June next year maybe 50k - 75k in 2023 and 150k - 200k in 2024. So top poster would get his in late 2024 and @John K will get his in 2032.
 


John K

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Well keep in mind 25% of orders are overseas so that bumps you forward a fair bit.

I am more optimistic than you. I figure if they start production in June next year maybe 50k - 75k in 2023 and 150k - 200k in 2024. So top poster would get his in late 2024 and @John K will get his in 2032.
😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡

I am sandbagging my guess a bit and hope ramp up goes smoothly.

@Ogre knows why I am angry. (First time being angry at anyone on this site) 😁👍
 

TyPope

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Takes about a year for the factory to get to 5k a week consistently and Austin has been making/testing cars since the last quarter of 2021. Now being almost August they havnt hit 1k a week yet or very close to...ramp takes a good while. You can look at it as it take about 3 months to ramp each additional 1k cars a week.
I wouldn't use Austin's first car line up as a good timeline for their 2nd car line. A lot of the ramp up is getting logistics settled and the lines in place. I would bet that a lot of the Cybertruck line has been set up already. Now, blanks, molds, and specific parts probably aren't in place yet but the overall process won't take as long as the Model Y.

I suppose we'll see a few examples before they really start producing the CT but those will be manufacturing proofs. Once they start making customer-ready CTs, they'll ramp up faster than the Y line did. I'm calling it - 5,000 a week by February, 2023.

Which still puts mine a long, long, long, long time from now... :(
 

Jow

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Factors affecting delivery (please add to list):

1. Reservation #
2. Trim (tri - 40%, dual - 40%, single - 20%)
3. Trim production position (quad first, tri second, dual third, single fourth)
4. Geographic location (close to Austin, Texas, major Tesla regions, USA, Canada, everywhere)
5. Normal conversion to order (30%?, economy, stock price, family emergency, retirement, etc.)
6. Order something else (20%?)

Ad hoc example: 270K reservation #
After normal conversion loss: 189K
After tri-motor trim: 76K
After Quad sub trim (at maybe 40%?): 30K

I know that this is extremely optimistic and full of BS guesses, but it paints a hopeful picture...
7. Married vs Single
 

Ogre

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Factors affecting delivery (please add to list):

1. Reservation #
2. Trim (tri - 40%, dual - 40%, single - 20%)
3. Trim production position (quad first, tri second, dual third, single fourth)
4. Geographic location (close to Austin, Texas, major Tesla regions, USA, Canada, everywhere)
5. Normal conversion to order (30%?, economy, stock price, family emergency, retirement, etc.)
6. Order something else (20%?)

Ad hoc example: 270K reservation #
After normal conversion loss: 189K
After tri-motor trim: 76K
After Quad sub trim (at maybe 40%?): 30K

I know that this is extremely optimistic and full of BS guesses, but it paints a hopeful picture...
I know your numbers are not meant to be actual, but worth pointing out, conversion rates and upgrades to first available trim will likely be highest in the first 100k of orders or so. I think we hit close to 100k in the first couple hours after launch.

We do know about 25% of orders were non-US though which kind of instantly moves all of us USA customers up in the queue a bit. It’s likely even Canadian and Mexican orders will be pushed back at least 6 months or more.
 

Quicksilver

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I'm in the 400,000 range and figure mine might be built in late 2024 or early 2025.
Since they will all have four wheel steering (no savings ordering it without) and I'll upgrade to a quad motor which will prob increase the price even more, the longer I wait the bigger my down payment will be.
I'd like to put at least half down either by saving or selling Tesla stock.
The payment on the Diesel Pig is 1100 a month and I'd rather not have another large car payment and be "truck poor".
On the other hand I'm chomping at the bit to get behind the wheel of my CT so the sooner the better.
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