Hardware 4 being introduced with the Cybertruck

[Throwcomputer]

Gonna take a lot more than that to get kudos.

And in typical Musk fashion.. he announced a desired target price for retail which he will literally never be able to keep, because the refined production version is like 6-10 years out from the current iteration, and we all know how pricing something 5-6 years out ends up!

This is my problem with him and the whole thing. Sure, announce the thing. But shut up about it, especially pricing of it, until its literally ready for production and you are basically waiting to push the button on sales. Don't keep trotting out yearly incremental versions that a majority of the world will see as failures and then stand on stage venting frustration that the whole world can't see your end goal which is 10 years out. Otherwise its an increasingly valid argument that he straddles the line on vaporware.

Now dojo is something I am glad to hear about because its something they are realistically approaching in terms of progress and goals. The robot is like jumping on stage and saying you are going to create a warp drive for sale in 4 years for the price of a budget sedan. I'm not against anyone working on autonomous humanoid robots, or warp drive, but that crap will take a long time to get right, and publicly treating them like "hold my beer.. i got this" is infantile. It diminishes the time and effort that the real engineers behind the scenes are putting in.

Sponsored

 

[rr6013]

The MVP for Optimus is Elon Musk.

Robotics is fusion dream. FSD is a step toward humanity(PUREvision). ML 100X humanity consciousness with DOJO scalability. Optimus is EM’s roadmap into hacking self-consciousness. Self same way FSD in Teslas hack situational awareness. ML builds self-driving confidence iteratively with millions of miles. DOJO scales million mile learned across thousands of Teslas. DOJO scales Optimus orthogonally million tasks at a time. Its MVP is limited. Limited only by tasks humans teach Optimus.

Fusion occurs at Optimus’ knowledge limit. Spillover that exceeds its form factor leads to Teslas next abstraction layer up the pyramid of General Intelligence.

 

[Tinker71]

Gonna take a lot more than that to get kudos.

And in typical Musk fashion.. he announced a desired target price for retail which he will literally never be able to keep, because the refined production version is like 6-10 years out from the current iteration, and we all know how pricing something 5-6 years out ends up!

This is my problem with him and the whole thing. Sure, announce the thing. But shut up about it, especially pricing of it, until its literally ready for production and you are basically waiting to push the button on sales. Don't keep trotting out yearly incremental versions that a majority of the world will see as failures and then stand on stage venting frustration that the whole world can't see your end goal which is 10 years out. Otherwise its an increasingly valid argument that he straddles the line on vaporware.

Now dojo is something I am glad to hear about because its something they are realistically approaching in terms of progress and goals. The robot is like jumping on stage and saying you are going to create a warp drive for sale in 4 years for the price of a budget sedan. I'm not against anyone working on autonomous humanoid robots, or warp drive, but that crap will take a long time to get right, and publicly treating them like "hold my beer.. i got this" is infantile. It diminishes the time and effort that the real engineers behind the scenes are putting in.

$20000 is a price that can be achieved with profit. At 150 lbs the materials and shipping are predictable. Super advanced chipsets don't cost much to mass produce. sensors are cheap too. Program development is shared/financed by FSD. That leaves actuators and body manufacturing.

 

[Crissa]

You can't hire people if they aren't inspired by what you've done.

-Crissa

 

[jerhenderson]

Gonna take a lot more than that to get kudos.

And in typical Musk fashion.. he announced a desired target price for retail which he will literally never be able to keep, because the refined production version is like 6-10 years out from the current iteration, and we all know how pricing something 5-6 years out ends up!

This is my problem with him and the whole thing. Sure, announce the thing. But shut up about it, especially pricing of it, until its literally ready for production and you are basically waiting to push the button on sales. Don't keep trotting out yearly incremental versions that a majority of the world will see as failures and then stand on stage venting frustration that the whole world can't see your end goal which is 10 years out. Otherwise its an increasingly valid argument that he straddles the line on vaporware.

Now dojo is something I am glad to hear about because its something they are realistically approaching in terms of progress and goals. The robot is like jumping on stage and saying you are going to create a warp drive for sale in 4 years for the price of a budget sedan. I'm not against anyone working on autonomous humanoid robots, or warp drive, but that crap will take a long time to get right, and publicly treating them like "hold my beer.. i got this" is infantile. It diminishes the time and effort that the real engineers behind the scenes are putting in.

... because he could have predicted Covid, the supply chain bottleneck and Russia invading Ukraine?

 

[JBee]

$20000 is a price that can be achieved with profit. At 150 lbs the materials and shipping are predictable. Super advanced chipsets don't cost much to mass produce. sensors are cheap too. Program development is shared/financed by FSD. That leaves actuators and body manufacturing.

A robot can only move because of actuation.

The actuators are key to making this thing work, and the linear electric actuators they are making are pretty impressive given that a lot of Boston's Atlas is electro hydraulic. The weight and power efficiency gains from that alone are substantial, but so is also the cost savings whilst these are being mass produced. Did anyone notice that there was a whole segment on how they figured out which type of actuator to use where, with a sensitivity analysis with hundreds of results? The reason is that this subject alone makes or breaks the viability of the robot product.

The location and software stack is essentially a brain transplant from vehicle FSD, the AI teaching, occupancy and world simulation, object path prediction is all pure gold for autonomy.

Even the packaging, design and integration is pretty good, let alone getting enough power density onboard sich a small frame to be cordless for long periods is a feat. From what I could tell most of the electronics and drive controllers are all embedded in the torso along with the battery storage further optimising production and cost. Even the in house on the Tesla prodction floor development and testing pathway is ideal. They will replace some human labour, and effectively Optimus could be building parts of itself.

But in saying all that, the current robot presentation was fairly bold of EM, you could see how limited the movements were, and the second version was rolled out on a stick to show dexterity...I doubt it would impress a layman, but Boston would of been shivering on the thought of how far they have come, and how future oriented they are building, let alone being able to teach it.

The price point makes it borderline ridiculous if you work out 24 hour productivity. Just think strawberry harvesting. Even if it's half as fast as a human on average, it can work 4 times as long per week. It can charge in an hour from a 240V socket to boot.

 

[cybguy]

So the first Cybertrucks may or may not have Hardware 4.

Interesting. I love how vague he is ^-^;

-Crissa

More likely the first Cybertrucks will be ready in a year or so as well. Still on track for 2024 deliveries. Nothing unexpected.

 

[Dids]

A robot can only move because of actuation.

The actuators are key to making this thing work, and the linear electric actuators they are making are pretty impressive given that a lot of Boston's Atlas is electro hydraulic. The weight and power efficiency gains from that alone are substantial, but so is also the cost savings whilst these are being mass produced. Did anyone notice that there was a whole segment on how they figured out which type of actuator to use where, with a sensitivity analysis with hundreds of results? The reason is that this subject alone makes or breaks the viability of the robot product.

The location and software stack is essentially a brain transplant from vehicle FSD, the AI teaching, occupancy and world simulation, object path prediction is all pure gold for autonomy.

Even the packaging, design and integration is pretty good, let alone getting enough power density onboard sich a small frame to be cordless for long periods is a feat. From what I could tell most of the electronics and drive controllers are all embedded in the torso along with the battery storage further optimising production and cost. Even the in house on the Tesla prodction floor development and testing pathway is ideal. They will replace some human labour, and effectively Optimus could be building parts of itself.

But in saying all that, the current robot presentation was fairly bold of EM, you could see how limited the movements were, and the second version was rolled out on a stick to show dexterity...I doubt it would impress a layman, but Boston would of been shivering on the thought of how far they have come, and how future oriented they are building, let alone being able to teach it.

The price point makes it borderline ridiculous if you work out 24 hour productivity. Just think strawberry harvesting. Even if it's half as fast as a human on average, it can work 4 times as long per week. It can charge in an hour from a 240V socket to boot.

Boston was shivering.

 

[charliemagpie]

world customer base :
600 million households

I can't count the commercial opportunities
Fiipping burgers + millions of other tasks

Cleaning shopping centres after hours - how many shopping centres are there ?
Night fill in supermarkets. Checkout staff during the day - 10 per store ?

1 Billion+ needed for commercial work ?


How many robot factories needed to produce 30 million per year , and now much net @ $12,000 each

Plus app sales

 

[SentinelOne]

I'll buy one when its useful enough to help the wife around the house or me in the yard/garage....please be able to wash cars / motorcycles!!!
I'm sure we'd consider using them at work when they have factory skills!

 

[Tinker71]

world customer base :
600 million households

I can't count the commercial opportunities
Fiipping burgers + millions of other tasks

Cleaning shopping centres after hours - how many shopping centres are there ?
Night fill in supermarkets. Checkout staff during the day - 10 per store ?

1 Billion+ needed for commercial work ?


How many robot factories needed to produce 30 million per year , and now much net @ $12,000 each

Plus app sales

The future is exciting and scary at the same time. Elon's vision for a humanoid robot is interesting. For interacting with people around the house, maybe. But if you wanted to paint a building, would hominoid be the best??

Most robots will be fit for purpose.

I am really excited for agricultural robots and recycling robots. These will be more spider like.
Imaging no more trash sorting and getting it wrong half the time. Instead of spraying poisons or fertilizer across and entire field. Mico doses are applied. Good stuff for the environment.

 

[charliemagpie]

Thinking more about it... there is no limit

It doesn't need to be complicated.

A ludicrously simple 1 example

An immigrant who just got their working visa. Hardly any education, and ex farm worker. But is savvy !!
Has just learned to use a sewing machine, and has set up in a stingy garage doing repetitive piecework.
(working for a company and getting paid for every garment they sew)

Just buy a Robot for $20,000 and have it sewing 24 hours a day , 7 days a week.

Better still, hypothetically find the money to buy 100 robots, 100 sewing machines. Move into a warehouse. Put solar on the roof. All doing piecework.

No sales staff...no employees at all. Buy as many robots you can find piece work for.

Then tell your friends about it. ( turned out to be not that savvy lol)

Reality: Pieceworker loses job, company does it itself. The first mover gets to take the biggest piece of the industry pie.

Earth buys 100 million new vehicles per year.. Robots = limitless

Boggles the mind.

its not going to just take jobs away... its going to add new services, a clean world, food replacing weeds. Practically free labor.

We are about to witness the biggest impact on the human race since the discovery of fire.

 

[ÆCIII]

So the first Cybertrucks may or may not have Hardware 4.

Interesting. I love how vague he is ^-^;

-Crissa

Very true! But I would take Elon's vagueness, over legacy auto or MSM narratives any day

 

[Tinker71]

Thinking more about it... there is no limit

It doesn't need to be complicated.

A ludicrously simple 1 example

An immigrant who just got their working visa. Hardly any education, and ex farm worker. But is savvy !!
Has just learned to use a sewing machine, and has set up in a stingy garage doing repetitive piecework.
(working for a company and getting paid for every garment they sew)

Just buy a Robot for $20,000 and have it sewing 24 hours a day , 7 days a week.

Better still, hypothetically find the money to buy 100 robots, 100 sewing machines. Move into a warehouse. Put solar on the roof. All doing piecework.

No sales staff...no employees at all. Buy as many robots you can find piece work for.

Then tell your friends about it. ( turned out to be not that savvy lol)

Reality: Pieceworker loses job, company does it itself. The first mover gets to take the biggest piece of the industry pie.

Earth buys 100 million new vehicles per year.. Robots = limitless

Boggles the mind.

its not going to just take jobs away... its going to add new services, a clean world, food replacing weeds. Practically free labor.

We are about to witness the biggest impact on the human race since the discovery of fire.

The society impact will be scary. If you are average or below you will be quickly replaced. I guess given a subsistence of some sort to keep you in line. Yet you will try to get ahead. Some sort of black market deal probably. Or sit in a VR chair in a ratty apartment mainlining glucose and stimulants using all your subsistence money for the next VR upgrade.

 

[JBee]

The society impact will be scary. If you are average or below you will be quickly replaced. I guess given a subsistence of some sort to keep you in line. Yet you will try to get ahead. Some sort of black market deal probably. Or sit in a VR chair in a ratty apartment mainlining glucose and stimulants using all your subsistence money for the next VR upgrade.

Lol too many dystopian movies mate!

You need to see the big picture first, before you can draw it. The reason is to save the economy of goods and services because we soon won't have a workforce to do it biologically.

EM is planning for population collapse.

That happens shorty after we have a reverse age pyramid.

Now is the "only" time to do it, not when everyone is already pensioned and the young are burdened with giving old people care. The numbers don't work. We need to create artificial care, goods and service capacity if we want to get old enough to reach pension age and beyond. There will be billions of pensioners, and no one to run the economy anymore.

Look at how the pension age is going up, and pensions are going down with inflation. Older people already have to reverse mortgage their home to get equity out to survive and go back to work because the pension isn't enough. Even if they would get paid more fiat, it wouldn't help.

Problem is fiat currency can't force production much longer, because there simply won't be enough younger people to hold up the pyramid and economy. Simply, fiat currency can't make babies for our future workforce.

This is why Optimus is EMs baby for the world.

(Do I sound like a nutter, or is it just too incredulous?)

Sponsored