Delivery Timelines of Previous Models

[Ogre]

As we start to see what might be the first of the “beta” trucks and deliveries are starting to look possible next year, I thought it might be a good time to review past launches and see how the delivery timeline played out. I didn’t capture all of the dates, but I think I found the most significant for for the Model 3 and Model Y which I think are most like the Cybertruck launch. Curiously there are some big differences.

Model 3
Customers pre-ordered in advance, similar to Cybertruck.

Production Started July 3rd
Tesla Model 3 production to start Friday, deliveries July 28

A small batch of cars delivered to employees at a Handover Party on July 28th 2017
Tesla Model 3 Handover Party Kicks Off at 8:45 PM PST Tonight!

Opens up configuration tool to first batch of non employees (November 20th 2017)
Tesla finally opens up Model 3 orders to regular reservation holders | Electrek

First Actual Model 3 Deliveries (December 22nd 2017)
1st Tesla Model 3 Delivery To Regular Customer (Detailed Walkthrough Video) - CleanTechnica

Eventually, the base/ $35k deliveries start (May 2019) about 18 months after first deliveries
Tesla Finally Begins $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Deliveries

Finally, to put this myth to rest, after nearly 18 months of delivering the $35k Model 3, Tesla no longer offers it to customers (November 2020).
Tesla reportedly won’t sell the $35,000 Model 3 anymore - The Verge


Model Y
Curiously, the Model Y was significantly different from the Model 3. There was no pre-order, they launched the configuration page and they started taking orders and a $2,500 deposit on launch day. Model Y came out FAST, with deliveries about a year after the announcement and ordered opened.

Model Y Order Page goes online—No preorder, just put a deposit in. (March 14th 2019)
Tesla Model Y orders are now open | TechCrunch

Lots of Model Y prototype sightings in the wild (Dec 28 2019)
Spotted: Tesla Model Y Prototypes Start Popping Up In More Places

Tesla informs buyers the Model Y 7 seat option will delay orders and gives them the opportunity to change configurations to speed up delivery. (Feb 2020)
Tesla asks Model Y buyers to change configuration to get sooner delivery, hinting at high volume | Electrek

Model Y inventory starts piling up prior to customer deliveries (Feb 29th 2020)
Tesla spotted stockpiling some brand-new Model Y SUVs at factory | Electrek

Tesla starts scheduling deliveries (March 1st)
Charged EVs | Tesla now scheduling Model Y deliveries - Charged EVs

Model Y LR and Performance deliveries start (March Friday the 13th 2020)
Tesla starts delivering the Model Y | Engadget

The Cybertruck??

So what does this tell us about Cybertruck deliveries?

One thing that really struck me most was the time between customers being informed deliveries would start and the actual deliveries. In both cases, it was about a month. With the Model 3, the configuration tool opened one month prior to the first deliveries. With the Model Y, the configuration tool was open from day one, but customers were informed deliveries were imminent 1 month out.

I think we’re going to see something more like what happened with the Model 3 than with the Model Y. We’re seeing the same pre-order process and there is the same sort of mystery around the final configurations. Hopefully the actual ramp will be a lot more like the Model Y and we’ll see trucks coming off the line much quicker.

If Tesla follows the Model 3 model, we should see some kind of handover/ launch party after production starts when they can deliver a few trucks to employees. That was about 5 months prior to start of customer deliveries. If they follow that pattern (they did similar with the Model X and Model S refreshes from what I recall), we’ll get the specs at that handover party.

I kind of expect Tesla to make a big deal out of that date even though it’s months prior to actual customer deliveries.

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[Crissa]

The month warning was about the same for Plaid pre-orders, although delays mean that refresh Model X pre-orders got their configurations more than six months before delivery.

I think Cybertruck will follow the Model 3 formula more closely, it being a new model line, while Y was similar to a past line.

Hopefully it won't have the pauses the refreshed Y, S, and X have experienced the past two years.

-Crissa

 

[tmeyer3]

Great summary! I hope your very educated guess is right. I wonder if the sheer size and greater need for unique equipment for the CT will impact configurator to delivery time.

 

[Ogre]

Great summary! I hope your very educated guess is right. I wonder if the sheer size and greater need for unique equipment for the CT will impact configurator to delivery time.

They won’t launch the configurator until they are actually manufacturing at least 500 - 1000 trucks a week or so. So I think the 1 month between configurator and deliveries is likely.

 

[Aces-Truck]

I too think the rollout will be closer to the M3. The MY caries the many of the same parts as M3 (75%, per https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-vs-model-3-differences/). Whereas the CT is radically different than any other existing Tesla.

 

[greggertruck]

As we start to see what might be the first of the “beta” trucks and deliveries are starting to look possible next year, I thought it might be a good time to review past launches and see how the delivery timeline played out. I didn’t capture all of the dates, but I think I found the most significant for for the Model 3 and Model Y which I think are most like the Cybertruck launch. Curiously there are some big differences.

Model 3
Customers pre-ordered in advance, similar to Cybertruck.

Production Started July 3rd
Tesla Model 3 production to start Friday, deliveries July 28

A small batch of cars delivered to employees at a Handover Party on July 28th 2017
Tesla Model 3 Handover Party Kicks Off at 8:45 PM PST Tonight!

Opens up configuration tool to first batch of non employees (November 20th 2017)
Tesla finally opens up Model 3 orders to regular reservation holders | Electrek

First Actual Model 3 Deliveries (December 22nd 2017)
1st Tesla Model 3 Delivery To Regular Customer (Detailed Walkthrough Video) - CleanTechnica

Eventually, the base/ $35k deliveries start (May 2019) about 18 months after first deliveries
Tesla Finally Begins $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Deliveries

Finally, to put this myth to rest, after nearly 18 months of delivering the $35k Model 3, Tesla no longer offers it to customers (November 2020).
Tesla reportedly won’t sell the $35,000 Model 3 anymore - The Verge


Model Y
Curiously, the Model Y was significantly different from the Model 3. There was no pre-order, they launched the configuration page and they started taking orders and a $2,500 deposit on launch day. Model Y came out FAST, with deliveries about a year after the announcement and ordered opened.

Model Y Order Page goes online—No preorder, just put a deposit in. (March 14th 2019)
Tesla Model Y orders are now open | TechCrunch

Lots of Model Y prototype sightings in the wild (Dec 28 2019)
Spotted: Tesla Model Y Prototypes Start Popping Up In More Places

Tesla informs buyers the Model Y 7 seat option will delay orders and gives them the opportunity to change configurations to speed up delivery. (Feb 2020)
Tesla asks Model Y buyers to change configuration to get sooner delivery, hinting at high volume | Electrek

Model Y inventory starts piling up prior to customer deliveries (Feb 29th 2020)
Tesla spotted stockpiling some brand-new Model Y SUVs at factory | Electrek

Tesla starts scheduling deliveries (March 1st)
Charged EVs | Tesla now scheduling Model Y deliveries - Charged EVs

Model Y LR and Performance deliveries start (March Friday the 13th 2020)
Tesla starts delivering the Model Y | Engadget

The Cybertruck??

So what does this tell us about Cybertruck deliveries?

One thing that really struck me most was the time between customers being informed deliveries would start and the actual deliveries. In both cases, it was about a month. With the Model 3, the configuration tool opened one month prior to the first deliveries. With the Model Y, the configuration tool was open from day one, but customers were informed deliveries were imminent 1 month out.

I think we’re going to see something more like what happened with the Model 3 than with the Model Y. We’re seeing the same pre-order process and there is the same sort of mystery around the final configurations. Hopefully the actual ramp will be a lot more like the Model Y and we’ll see trucks coming off the line much quicker.

If Tesla follows the Model 3 model, we should see some kind of handover/ launch party after production starts when they can deliver a few trucks to employees. That was about 5 months prior to start of customer deliveries. If they follow that pattern (they did similar with the Model X and Model S refreshes from what I recall), we’ll get the specs at that handover party.

I kind of expect Tesla to make a big deal out of that date even though it’s months prior to actual customer deliveries.

You and I have had much back and forth, thanks for compiling this for everyone.

I feel like there should be a FAQ page where this can be stickied, along with some other threads.

 

[Ogre]

You and I have had much back and forth, thanks for compiling this for everyone.

I feel like there should be a FAQ page where this can be stickied, along with some other threads.

Then I’d feel compelled to chase down more dates and collect the Model X and Model S timelines.

 

[greggertruck]

Going into the season of deliveries starting, can't wait to see how right this lines up!

 

[CyberGus]

Going into the season of deliveries starting, can't wait to see how right this lines up!

 

[VR Driving]

I think it will be in between the Model 3 and Y launch. The Model 3 ramp got delayed big times, I think they would've already learned a lot and will most likely be a smoother ramp than the Model 3. But it won't be as quickly as the Y was able to ramp.

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