Elon: Cybertruck will have Autopilot HW4. Production still coming in Summer. Beta Cybertrucks coming next month. CT will be Musk's personal vehicle

[EVCanuck]

Why the WD-40 again?

So I see you don't know yet how to care for stainless steel...

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[Cyberman]

40,000 order numbers, which is where I get mine. Just wondering if I should book a flight for this Christmas to pick it up.

From what I've seen, as many delays as there have been (yes, we can say that now), figure on later. It sucks to wait even more, but I made up my mind: I ain't giving 'em my money 'till they gimme me Cybertruck. So there's that.

 

[greggertruck]

So I see you don't know yet how to care for stainless steel...

I’ve got time to learn apparently

 

[Gurule92]

I am super impatient, but if my CT doesn't come till next year it'll be beneficial for me personally.

My last semester for my bachelors is fall 23, I'll be able to get back to full time at work, MY should be like 75% paid off, credit cards should be all paid.

Could basically roll out the red carpet for the truck.

If it comes earlier though I'm not gonna not get it lol.

Oh and if the tax credit is usable on purchase price in 24 that'll be sick too

 

[Cyberman]

I am super impatient, but if my CT doesn't come till next year it'll be beneficial for me personally.

My last semester for my bachelors is fall 23, I'll be able to get back to full time at work, MY should be like 75% paid off, credit cards should be all paid.

Could basically roll out the red carpet for the truck.

If it comes earlier though I'm not gonna not get it lol.

Oh and if the tax credit is usable on purchase price in 24 that'll be sick too

Yaa.

 

[Cyberman]

Per Elon Musk on the 2022 Q4 earnings call:

Elon:

Cybertruck will have HW4. HW3 to HW4 retrofit is not needed.​

​

For 2023 Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year (2024). ​

​

I can't wait to drive it. It's the car I will drive personally.​

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We do expect production to start some time this summer. ​

​

Volume production (which is more important) won't happen until 2024. ​

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More Beta Cybertrucks are coming next month.​

What a bunch of excellent stuff. Finally, something I can sink my teeth in. Can't wait to see beta CT on the road out there.

 

[Ogre]

If you are 40k in line and say 60% of the early orders don't complete which puts u about 16,000 in line yeah u might get urs.
Before people get all huffy saying 60% is too high please remember it's been about 5 years. People die, they get married, they have a kid, that kid grows up and goes to college. Interest rates go up, stock market goes down, they get laid off from Twitter.
There is a world of difference between putting $100 down and then waiting 5 years and then actually purchasing $60,000 vehicle.

I don’t think it’ll be quite that high, but it could be. Most of the first 100k are pretty die hard fans.

Another thing to account for. International orders accounted for about 25% of early orders. Those are not getting delivered for at least 2 years after production start.

I could see someone with an RN in the 40,000 range getting the 20,000th truck off the line.

The more people in front of me who drop out, the better. Your 60% number puts me around 26,000th. If 60% of US buyers back out, I’d be 19,500th. That would not hurt my feelings.

 

[Ogre]

I can't wait to drive it. It's the car I will drive personally.

Funny thing about this is most of the time I see Musk getting into a car, it’s in the back seat.

But considering his heightened concern for security, I think the Cybertruck would be his first choice. Preferably with upgraded glass and Kevlar reinforcing on the doors.

 

[Qball]

True BUT they also said 2023 should hit 1.8 million units…….with Q4 annualized rate of 1.72 million unit. I’m hanging my hope on Elon is sandbagging big time this year.

 

[RandyS]

It may not be applicable, but maybe some sort of parallel story is how they rolled out the Model 3 in 2017. They started with a few cars in the summer and ramped up the production. I was lucky enough to take delivery in late December 2017 (previous owner, located in California, and made my reservation at 11 minutes after 10am in the store on opening day). My VIN number ended up being 1927...So, unfortunately, my educated guess is that there's no way they're going to deliver anywhere near 40K trucks by the end of this year given what we know...

 

[HaulingAss]

Elon did not say there would be no meaningful volume until next year.

He said Cybertruck production wouldn't contribute meaningfully to the bottom line until next year. For those who don't know, "the bottom line" refers to the profit or loss at the end of an accounting period, not the revenue. All vehicle ramps are unprofitable until large volumes are being cranked out every day. Until then, the expenses overwhelm the sales revenue. Elon was talking to analysts whose job it is to model expected profits.

I would be super pleased if they manage to put out 15-20K this year and would not be dissappointed if they only manage 6K (that's still a lot of trucks). The initial part of a ramp is always slow, perhaps more so with so much new manufacturing technology incorporated, including new tech from suppliers.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

It is worth mentioning, I think, that Tesla does not know how many they can make. They designed specifically for production efficiencies, no paint, robotic weldability, but they don't know how those things will actually effect production until they try it. They'll find out only slightly before we do if the result is crushing disappointment or revolutionary optimization.

 

[ED_SFO]

I read through all the past posts...

My own goal was 12k CT this year...but based on Elon's speculation in realistic numbers...it's prob less than 5k...

Why: it takes 4-6 months of testing and validation before TRUE production starts...

They will test build march 2023.... finalizing those build in June 2023....build those trucks to end spec in July...but won't have a full reveal until 3rd quarter or 4th 2023...they don't need to rush.

 

[Prime8]

Hmm, I'm under 4k in line, I guess there's a chance I'll be picking up my truck this time next year....

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