Elon: Cybertruck will have Autopilot HW4. Production still coming in Summer. Beta Cybertrucks coming next month. CT will be Musk's personal vehicle

[Ogre]

Mark my words. We will be lucky to see 2k Cybertruck's manufactured in 2023. Similar to Rivian a lot of production will be going to employees and suppliers.

There are 45 Cybertruck rear castings sitting on the ground at Giga Texas. We’ve seen front castings. The 4680 production lines in Texas are operating. We’ve seen the robots in place for assembling the truck. There is stamping equipment for the truck which is operational.

While I don’t see 40k as likely, I think 40k is more likely than 2 right now. Maybe 0.5% chance we see 40k and 0.1% chance we see less than 2k.

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[Mini2nut]

Deliver day will be late September. That leaves only 12 weeks left in the year. No way in hell is Tesla going to crank out 3,333 Cybertruck’s per week to manufacture 40k trucks.

Why? New product, new manufacturing/assembly techniques, new assembly line workers, vendor limitations, etc.

 

[Ogre]

Deliver day will be late September. That leaves only 12 weeks left in the year. No way in hell is Tesla going to crank out 3,333 Cybertruck’s per week to manufacture 40k trucks.

Why? New product, new manufacturing/assembly techniques, new assembly line workers, vendor limitations, etc.

Totally agree.

But production actually starts in late June/ July (all signs suggest), not late September.

They will be producing trucks for nearly 6 months. The likelyhood they will average fewer than 100 trucks a week (as you suggested) over that time is pretty much nil. The first couple hundred go to employees/ insiders. Then they inventory them until production is high enough to start deliveries. Most likely they will have 2,000 in inventory before deliveries start.

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