📈 Q4 2022 Tesla Earnings! Cybertruck Production Remains ON TRACK! Status Still Sits at Tooling

[TyPope]

I don't think that's crazy, 5000 a week but probably more like April or May.

They're arguably still ramping S/X even if 5k a week is the anticipated volume production run rate.

This is where I agree a lot with you, WHAT means "volume production??"

I don't think Tesla is still ramping S/X. It's most likely they are keeping those two at lower volumes on purpose. Out of the 4 factories they have that make cars, they only produce the X/S at one.

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[GlockandRoll]

Say "I can't confirm" one more time Jack Bauer Things are weird up in Area 51 I guess.

Hey, if its 3.. Sweet. Don't know how they will do independent torque each wheel. It'll be interesting to see Tesla go head to head with an R1t quad motor DT.

COGS will be less if it's 3 versus 4 I'd imagine.

And that weight... You're very very wrong.
That's more than a Lightning Extended Range. And an R1T. I'd imagine the vehicle weighs less than 6000lbs.

But again if you're right, sweet. 100% write off for me that year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Bauer isn't a relevant analogy, he was a DHS agent that didn't know how to hold a pistol.
Think more of a character who has a broad network of people he gets information from because of some of the engineering and social circles he runs in.

The CT has a cost goal to attain, and also a simplicity of construction and reliability goal.
You dont really gain anything with a 4rth motor but more weight, cost, complexity, and battery draw. The front motor is for efficiency and extra traction.

I dont know what you currently drive, but I'm guessing 1500hp is going to be pretty peppy for anyone in a daily driver, I know it will be for me.

 

[greggertruck]

Bauer isn't a relevant analogy, he was a DHS agent that didn't know how to hold a pistol.
Think more of a character who has a broad network of people he gets information from because of some of the engineering and social circles he runs in.

The CT has a cost goal to attain, and also a simplicity of construction and reliability goal.
You dont really gain anything with a 4rth motor but more weight, cost, complexity, and battery draw. The front motor is for efficiency and extra traction.

I dont know what you currently drive, but I'm guessing 1500hp is going to be pretty peppy for anyone in a daily driver, I know it will be for me.

Dude, I drive a flying Lucid. I'm kidding. All jokes aside.

I just tend to really lead with evidence, proof, and platform. You can see this frequently in what I post/ share with the Cybertruck gang. Love you all!

 

[greggertruck]

I don't think Tesla is still ramping S/X. It's most likely they are keeping those two at lower volumes on purpose. Out of the 4 factories they have that make cars, they only produce the X/S at one.

Bet they WISH they'd sell more.

They are in fact UP in production, though. They are "ramping" in that sense.

 

[GlockandRoll]

There is absolutely no way it'll take Tesla 2 years to ramp up production, especially coming off doing that ramp up process with so many factories. The Cybertruck, while looking wild and having those folded instead of stamped body panels, is NOT much different than any other vehicle.

Full, 5,000 a week production by next February.

They will be rolling off the line in July from what I've been told, and during the remainder of the year transitioning out of making both model Y's and CTs, and going full tilt with CT's starting in 2024.

Not sure how many per week the goal is, but they aren't going to be able to make them fast enough no matter how many they make.

 

[Ogre]

Are you opposed to four motors? Arguably, that would actually create more regen as well. So more efficient in a way.

If you watch the latest video from The Limiting Factor, he talks about regen and motor count. One of the big reasons the Tesla semi has 3 motors is so it has enough regen for the weight. Back that out a bit. The semi can fully max out regen with 3 motors. The Cybertruck with 1/4 the battery and 1/4 the weight (with a maxed out trailer) can get all the regen they need out of a single motor.

That’s not 100% ideal because if they only used 1 motor for regen they could only use 1 axel for slowing the vehicle, so for the purposes of regeneration, 2 motors will easily recapture as much energy as 4 motors.


PS: I got no bones in this debate, 4 motors is most likely based on Musk’s comments. But I still think a 3 motor LR config is likely due to efficiency gains. Very possible 4 motors comes first and 3 later… or the reverse. Also possible they do a dual motor LR which should be as efficient as a tri motor.

 

[greggertruck]

If you watch the latest video from The Limiting Factor, he talks about regen and motor count. One of the big reasons the Tesla semi has 3 motors is so it has enough regen for the weight. Back that out a bit. The semi can fully max out regen with 3 motors. The Cybertruck with 1/4 the battery and 1/4 the weight (with a maxed out trailer) can get all the regen they need out of a single motor.

That’s not 100% ideal because if they only used 1 motor for regen they could only use 1 axel for slowing the vehicle, so for the purposes of regeneration, 2 motors will easily recapture as much energy as 4 motors.


PS: I got no bones in this debate, 4 motors is most likely based on Musk’s comments. But I still think a 3 motor LR config is likely due to efficiency gains. Very possible 4 motors comes first and 3 later… or the reverse. Also possible they do a dual motor LR which should be as efficient as a tri motor.

They aren't gonna release an end all be all out the gate, are they? Gotta leave something to change in future???

 

[GlockandRoll]

If you watch the latest video from The Limiting Factor, he talks about regen and motor count. One of the big reasons the Tesla semi has 3 motors is so it has enough regen for the weight. Back that out a bit. The semi can fully max out regen with 3 motors. The Cybertruck with 1/4 the battery and 1/4 the weight (with a maxed out trailer) can get all the regen they need out of a single motor.

That’s not 100% ideal because if they only used 1 motor for regen they could only use 1 axel for slowing the vehicle, so for the purposes of regeneration, 2 motors will easily recapture as much energy as 4 motors.


PS: I got no bones in this debate, 4 motors is most likely based on Musk’s comments. But I still think a 3 motor LR config is likely due to efficiency gains. Very possible 4 motors comes first and 3 later… or the reverse. Also possible they do a dual motor LR which should be as efficient as a tri motor.

A reasonable response.

Personally, I have heard that it is too complex to engineer 2 motors in the front given the space and the fact that the power isn't needed. They are trying to make this affordable, efficient, and reliable. And with 1500 hp from 3 motors, do you need any more?

 

[Ogre]

I think Musk’s statement was pretty clear, but the facts on the ground have changed quite a bit since he made them. I’ve put my prediction out there and I’ll stick to it until something significant changes. If 4680 production doesn’t pick up though, the dual motor might be all they can get out in volume.

I’m super curious about how much energy savings those dual clutches on the semi bring to the table (and how much they increase cost).

 

[Bill906]

A reasonable response.

Personally, I have heard that it is too complex to engineer 2 motors in the front given the space and the fact that the power isn't needed. They are trying to make this affordable, efficient, and reliable. And with 1500 hp from 3 motors, do you need any more?

I can't confirm how I know this but... it isn't too complex to engineer two motors in the front. Case in point, Rivian did it. Also, if the front is going to be 500HP, the amount of space needed for the 500HP motor won't be much less than the space needed for two 250HP motors. And the placing of the two smaller motors would be more flexible than one large one. Also, I doubt Elon would have mentioned it before some engineering was done to at least say it's feesable.

Not sure where the 1500HP comes from, but regardless, the number of motors and total horsepower are not linked. You can increase the number of motors without increasing power. Three 500HP motors give you the same total power as four 375HP motors. Yes, as you add motors you will increase inefficiencies, but I don't believe it's significant compared to what you gain. That being full vector control of each wheel. Which is the reason for going to a four motor version, not to increase power.

I also don't understand the phrase "Do you need any more?" as part of a discussion like this. NO I don't need more. I don't NEED a CyberTruck. but I do REALLY REALLY want one. And I do really want a four motor variant. Jeeps have different 4 wheel drive systems. The top of the line one, "Quadra Drive" does some kind of magic that very closely replicates 4 wheel vector control. I think it uses clutches, but I never found a good answer as to how exactly it works. I had that option on a 2005 Jeep Grand Cherokee and I really loved it. Regardless of how much snow, or which tires had traction and which ones didn't It always drove like it was on dry pavement. I'm expecting Rivian and hopefully Tesla to work that well or even better.

 

[GlockandRoll]

I can't confirm how I know this but... it isn't too complex to engineer two motors in the front. Case in point, Rivian did it. Also, if the front is going to be 500HP, the amount of space needed for the 500HP motor won't be much less than the space needed for two 250HP motors. And the placing of the two smaller motors would be more flexible than one large one. Also, I doubt Elon would have mentioned it before some engineering was done to at least say it's feesable.

Not sure where the 1500HP comes from, but regardless, the number of motors and total horsepower are not linked. You can increase the number of motors without increasing power. Three 500HP motors give you the same total power as four 375HP motors. Yes, as you add motors you will increase inefficiencies, but I don't believe it's significant compared to what you gain. That being full vector control of each wheel. Which is the reason for going to a four motor version, not to increase power.

I also don't understand the phrase "Do you need any more?" as part of a discussion like this. NO I don't need more. I don't NEED a CyberTruck. but I do REALLY REALLY want one. And I do really want a four motor variant. Jeeps have different 4 wheel drive systems. The top of the line one, "Quadra Drive" does some kind of magic that very closely replicates 4 wheel vector control. I think it uses clutches, but I never found a good answer as to how exactly it works. I had that option on a 2005 Jeep Grand Cherokee and I really loved it. Regardless of how much snow, or which tires had traction and which ones didn't It always drove like it was on dry pavement. I'm expecting Rivian and hopefully Tesla to work that well or even better.

2x carbon-sleeved 600hp motors in the rear, and 1x 300hp legacy motor in the front = 1500 hp.

Regardless of how much "better" a quad motor might seem, it's not needed to do what they need to do and might not be possible at the price point they are trying to achieve for the 3 levels announced.

You don't need two motors when you can, with clutches, divert 100 % of the power to either wheel or any ratio between them.

A bit part of the single motor up front is room as the cab forward design doesn't leave as much room between the wheel wells and under the dash, and, like the Semi - efficiency. A lot of the time driving the CT at level cruise, the rears will be disengaged and you will be in FWD mode and the rear motors come in seamlessly.

 

[greggertruck]

possible at the price point they are trying to achieve

Wanna speculate pricing?

 

[GlockandRoll]

I think the word is they are trying to keep the original pricing.
In fact, they are cutting prices on other models even.

 

[Ogre]

Wanna speculate pricing?

For a long time, I said the Dual Motor Cybertruck would end up right around the cost of the dual motor Model Y. Recent price cut and some other things have made me reconsider this. It’s very likely Tesla put Cybertruck pricing out there expecting the price of the Dual Motor Model Y would come down. And given some things I’ve seen and hints… I think the Model Y pricing may come down again, possibly before the Cybertruck is launched.

Tesla named their new Model 3 variant “Highland”. It is an interesting name and some have suggested it referenced Highlander “There can be only One”… but someone pointed out another (better) connection. Ford’s Highland Park was the birthplace of the automotive assembly line.

Shortly after Ford launched their Highland Park, the Model T was introduced at about 1/3 the cost of normal cars at the time and then over the next 3 years the price of the Model T plunged 40% in 3 years (twitter linked analyst notes). Tesla’s choice of names here makes me wonder if they are bringing down prices across the board.


Anyhow… long post.

TLDR: Launch prices plus a possible nudge for inflation.

 

[SolarWizard]

There is absolutely no way it'll take Tesla 2 years to ramp up production, especially coming off doing that ramp up process with so many factories. The Cybertruck, while looking wild and having those folded instead of stamped body panels, is NOT much different than any other vehicle.

Full, 5,000 a week production by next February.

How on earth are you implying I indicated two years? Volume production starts “IN 2024” theres nothing to suggest that means January or even Q1 24. Volume production could well mean Q3/4 and volume does not mean full ramp.

Two years would mean the factory is popping them out now

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