Elon explains why Cybertruck not out yet... battery cell production is limiting factor

[Jhodgesatmb]

In yesterday's earnings call I heard Elon answer a question about new products coming out. He was talking about new products that they haven't even revealed. But it really fits with why they didn't start production on the Cybertruck or any other new products over the last year or more. It's in this video at 0:49:19.

Here's what he said:
What is the limiting factor for new vehicles? Because for the longest time we've been constrained on total cell, you know lithium-ion production output, and some people said like why not this car to market or that other car to market? Well it doesn't really help if all you're doing is shuffling around the batteries from one car to another. In fact, it hurts because you add complexity, but you don't add incremental volume. So it's pointless, in fact it's counterproductive to add model complexity without solving the availability of lithium-ion batteries. We want new product introduction to match where the cells are available for that new product to use without cannibalizing the cells of the other cars. That's the actual limiting factor for new models, NOT anything else really.

He has said that so many times it shouldn’t even be noted anymore. But Tesla has also said that batteries will not be an issue for the Cybertruck, so you either believe him or you don’t but you shouldn’t selectively decide what to believe.

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[android04]

Have they addressed the bulletproof glass issue?

They never said the glass would be bulletproof, and it won't be. It's "Armor Glass" designed to resist debris that would go through it break regular glass.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

They never said the glass would be bulletproof, and it won't be. It's "Armor Glass" designed to resist debris that would go through it break regular glass.

On our recent road trip to Denver we were driving a healthy distance behind a semi that we subsequently noted was missing a mud flap and had a pebble kicked up into my new Model Ys windshield and cracked it. I do not need the CT windshield to be bulletproof but I do hope it can tolerate this kind of thing.

 

[Mini2nut]

The number of battery cells needed for volume production, let’s say 150,000 Cybertruck’s annually, is mind boggling.

Many experts believe the CT battery pack will have roughly 900 4680 cells, so let’s do the math.

150,000 CT‘s would require 135,000,000 cells annually just for Cybertruck production. Tesla needs to be spitting out 4680’s like Tootsie Rolls before volume production can begin.

 

[cvalue13]

And 4680 output is around 4-5 gWh or roughly enough for 500 trucks a week.

Sounds like it’s finally happening though? Their first line in Austin is operational and 3 mare are “in various stages of installation and start up”. Also the Giga Nevada announcement, I think they waited until their 4680 production was nailed before they started ramping that up.

The optimist and even mildly skeptical take would be that the ATX giga assembly plus Elon’s comments on this week’s call (continuing to commit to build something this year) mean that battery production is guaranteed established enough soon to introduce a new model, the CT, soon.

Straggling out at the extreme tail of skepticism, however: one could instead wonder if there are exceptions to Elon’s maxim RE not providing unneeded model segmentation absent sufficient batteries. Exceptions including counter-considerations like those faced by public companies under pressure to deliver nameplate promises. At some point, a company could decide there are overpowering reasons to introduce model segmentation and manufacturing complexity despite continued constraint. Especially if they’re still genuinely betting on the come (ie in this case, battery availability).

I wouldn’t normally find myself out in that extreme tail of skepticism of public company perverted incentives, and I’m not quite there yet with the CT - but I’ll admit no small degree of frustration that causes me to not write it off entirely.

I *can* however withhold judgment until March announcements!

 

[charliemagpie]

Elon said they would come out like a machine gun. You would need a strobe light to see one.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The number of battery cells needed for volume production, let’s say 150,000 Cybertruck’s annually, is mind boggling.

Many experts believe the CT battery pack will have roughly 900 4680 cells, so let’s do the math.

150,000 CT‘s would require 135,000,000 4680 cells annually just for Cybertruck production. Tesla needs to be spitting out 4680’s like Tootsie Rolls before volume production can begin.

Aren’t there like 828 4680s in the 4680 Model Y which is not even LR? I would expect the CT to have more like 2,000. Elon said that CT full production would be 250K per year so I am not sure where you got the 150K number. Since the ramp will start slowly and be exponential we should mark the point where they hit 1,000 per week and expect a doubling every month up to 5,000 per week. Model Y production is closing in on 4,000 per week now about a year after they were making them in small quantities. It seems like they will need about 2 million cells for every 1,000 CTs. If it takes them 4 months to hit a run rate of 1,000 per week then they have almost a year to get 4680 production up to that level. Not a problem. My bigger concern is that the CT use gen 3 4680 cells and not gen 2 cells and those really need the dry cathode technology.

 

[Alan]

They are making enough 4680’s for 1000 model y packs a week. The rest of the Y’s are still 2170’s

 

[SolarWizard]

Many experts believe the CT battery pack will have roughly 900 4680 cells, so let’s do the math.

Which experts and what do they say that equates to in range?

 

[firsttruck]

There is no limit that says there can only be one cash cow in addition a cash cow does not last forever.

Companies can have more than one cash cow at a time and also they can slightly slow a current cash cow and use the resources to start the ramp of a replacement cash cow.

 

[jerhenderson]

Have they addressed the bulletproof glass issue?

they never had a bullet proof glass issue as they never had bullet proof glass.

 

[anionic1]

In yesterday's earnings call I heard Elon answer a question about new products coming out. He was talking about new products that they haven't even revealed. But it really fits with why they didn't start production on the Cybertruck or any other new products over the last year or more. It's in this video at 0:49:19.

Here's what he said:
What is the limiting factor for new vehicles? Because for the longest time we've been constrained on total cell, you know lithium-ion production output, and some people said like why not this car to market or that other car to market? Well it doesn't really help if all you're doing is shuffling around the batteries from one car to another. In fact, it hurts because you add complexity, but you don't add incremental volume. So it's pointless, in fact it's counterproductive to add model complexity without solving the availability of lithium-ion batteries. We want new product introduction to match where the cells are available for that new product to use without cannibalizing the cells of the other cars. That's the actual limiting factor for new models, NOT anything else really.

It was the gigapress. They could have had warehouses full of batteries but they couldn't make the truck without the presses. He could always buy more batteries from other vendors or pay more for them than Ford our VW etc. No one can make a 9000 ton gigapress to make the castings. Thats also why Germany wasn't making the structural pack Ys and 3s. You think Idra was just letting that thing sit in their factory for a year. No, they shipped it as soon as they could. It recently arrived in Texas and gues what production is getting started in the next few months. Wow. If Elon let people know in 2020 that it could take a few years to get the gigapress how do you think the public would have responded. They would have laughed and forgotten about it. He is a show man and he has been keeping the carrot just out of reach for about 5 years.

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