40,000 Production this year prediction

[uscbucsfan]

It was in the Q1 2023 call, he stated end of Q3 for Cybertruck delivery event.

Then followed it with "probably".

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[RVAC]

Then followed it with "probably".

Yeah, which in Elon speak usually means it's going to be later than that.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Well, it is supposed to be easier to manufacture… Or wait is it more difficult?

Getting the manufacturing line built will be a new thing for Tesla, so they would be ill-advised to predict the ramp rate. Once they have a reliable manufacturing line they ‘should’ be able to manufacture Cybertruck more quickly and reliably than previous models (as you reminded us).

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yeah, however Elon previously stated the delivery event is going to be end of September so it's not going to be earlier than that.

Before the Cyber Rodeo Model Y delivery event Tesla had built a few hundred Model Ys. Might they do the same with the Cybertruck?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Did Elon actually say the end of September? I thought he said the delivery event would be in 3rd Qtr and we assumed (based on the delays of everything else) that it would be the last week of 3rd Qtr, hence the end of September.

He actually did say ‘probably the end of Q3.”

 

[Greshnab]

40K between ~Sept 30 and Dec 31 2023????

that seems … optimistic

would likely look like a ramp of, what, 3,000 in October, 10,000 in November, and 26,000 in December?

which would then even if plateaued put 2024 production at 312,000 units?

I think that “reader” is … too optimistic

As context, yesterdays Q&A on the point:

• Q: once CT is fully ramped in Austin what is the target production "we'll start production and handing over cars later this year, there will be an S-curve of production, and I guess we'll see what the demand is, we're likely to do a quarter million a year, maybe more, very much dependent on what the demand is like.”

if the delivery event is near the end of Q3 i would guess it would late august or EARLY september otherwise they have no wiggle room.. assuming it is middle to end of august if all goes well that gives them 6 extra weeks of production on your estimates.. which is possible although not probable.

IOW i think it COULD happen if they don't hit any major roadblocks.

 

[greggertruck]

Tyler Mathisen of CNBC also reported on Tesla production floor. He sort of slipped that Cybertruck production is on going. We can speculate if it's just a pilot production, one line (but definitely not full or mass production).

Apparently, the stock market is taking it as good news with the price up 5%+ or any other good news coming out of the stockholders' meeting.

Got a clip?

 

[RVAC]

Before the Cyber Rodeo Model Y delivery event Tesla had built a few hundred Model Ys. Might they do the same with the Cybertruck?

Yes, my comment was in relation to the 40k units in 2023 prediction. One hundred or so Cybertrucks aren't going to move the needle in that regard. Production won't really start until the delivery event in my opinion, in order to hit 40k by end of year it would have to be much sooner than that.

 

[intimidator]

A Tesla "reader" like everyone of us here, (he said he was a formerly part of Tesla management team and apparently still an active Tesla stockholder), said just now on CNBC that he thinks Tesla will produce 40,000 Cybertruck this year.

Raise your hand if you are getting one of 'em this year?

Yes, I am a bleeding and suffering Tesla stockholder, one of the Godots, that's why I am paying attention.

IMO they will not deliver 40,000 Cybertrucks to buyers in 2023.

Elon himself said it would be "slow at first".

If Tesla DELIVERS 10,000 Cybertrucks before Christmas I would be very surprised. Prove me wrong Elon! I am ready to take delivery now! LOL

 

[BeastSlayer]

Got a clip?

Sorry, I was doing sell trades on my stocks when I heard it. I was not even able to catch his name after the anchor described his background.

 

[BeastSlayer]

Yes, it will not be all of sudden that Cybertrucks will be flooding the streets.

Most likely we will see a few being driven by Tesla employees in Texas or Fremont.

 

[Jeepster]

40K between ~Sept 30 and Dec 31 2023????

that seems … optimistic

would likely look like a ramp of, what, 3,000 in October, 10,000 in November, and 26,000 in December?

which would then even if plateaued put 2024 production at 312,000 units?

I think that “reader” is … too optimistic

As context, yesterdays Q&A on the point:

• Q: once CT is fully ramped in Austin what is the target production "we'll start production and handing over cars later this year, there will be an S-curve of production, and I guess we'll see what the demand is, we're likely to do a quarter million a year, maybe more, very much dependent on what the demand is like.”

The Q/A quote seems odd. "Very much dependent on what the demand is like?" Correct me if I am wrong (I know someone will! ) but don't they have at least 1 million pre-orders? Or more? Say 1.5M, that would still likely be at least 4 years at full production capacity even accounting for 1/3 of pre-orders cancelling.

 

[BeastSlayer]

The Q/A quote seems odd. "Very much dependent on what the demand is like?" Correct me if I am wrong (I know someone will! ) but don't they have at least 1 million pre-orders? Or more? Say 1.5M, that would still likely be at least 4 years at full production capacity even accounting for 1/3 of pre-orders cancelling.

And all Elon had to do is send someone here and count all the Godots and see the smears of saliva on the keyboards whenever someone post a photo of a Cybertruck.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The Q/A quote seems odd. "Very much dependent on what the demand is like?" Correct me if I am wrong (I know someone will! ) but don't they have at least 1 million pre-orders? Or more? Say 1.5M, that would still likely be at least 4 years at full production capacity even accounting for 1/3 of pre-orders cancelling.

Those pre-orders mean very little. It's $100 refundable based on pricing that Elon already said wouldn't be the same.

If the price is much higher, range/performance/towing much lower, etc than they planned it could result in Model S/X-like demand until they get things figured out.

 

[Vegetaban]

I wonder if I’ll be able to pick up at the factory once it does start delivering. Would be a fun road trip.

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