40,000 Production this year prediction

[BeastSlayer]

A Tesla "reader" like everyone of us here, (he said he was a formerly part of Tesla management team and apparently still an active Tesla stockholder), said just now on CNBC that he thinks Tesla will produce 40,000 Cybertruck this year.

Raise your hand if you are getting one of 'em this year?

Yes, I am a bleeding and suffering Tesla stockholder, one of the Godots, that's why I am paying attention.

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[cvalue13]

A Tesla "reader" like everyone of us here, (he said he was a formerly part of Tesla management team and apparently still an active Tesla stockholder), said just now on CNBC that he thinks Tesla will produce 40,000 Cybertruck this year.

Raise your hand if you are getting one of 'em this year?

Yes, I am a bleeding and suffering Tesla stockholder, one of the Godots, that's why I am paying attention.

40K between ~Sept 30 and Dec 31 2023????

that seems … optimistic

would likely look like a ramp of, what, 3,000 in October, 10,000 in November, and 26,000 in December?

which would then even if plateaued put 2024 production at 312,000 units?

I think that “reader” is … too optimistic

As context, yesterdays Q&A on the point:

• Q: once CT is fully ramped in Austin what is the target production "we'll start production and handing over cars later this year, there will be an S-curve of production, and I guess we'll see what the demand is, we're likely to do a quarter million a year, maybe more, very much dependent on what the demand is like.”

 

[BeastSlayer]

Tyler Mathisen of CNBC also reported on Tesla production floor. He sort of slipped that Cybertruck production is on going. We can speculate if it's just a pilot production, one line (but definitely not full or mass production).

Apparently, the stock market is taking it as good news with the price up 5%+ or any other good news coming out of the stockholders' meeting.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Tyler Mathisen of CNBC also reported on Tesla production floor. He sort of slipped that Cybertruck production is on going. We can speculate if it's just a pilot production, one line (but definitely not full or mass production).

Apparently, the stock market is taking it as good news with the price up 5%+ or any other good news coming out of the stockholders' meeting.

Incredibly low chance at 40k CTs in 2023. That would be an insane ramp, the MY in Austin just hit 5k per week a few weeks ago.

I've seen estimates from a few hundred to a few thousand, but no one knows. They aren't going to start mass production until 2024, so that tells me no to 40k this year.

 

[TBONO]

Well, it is supposed to be easier to manufacture… Or wait is it more difficult?

 

[BeastSlayer]

I am incredulous myself.

But then I tend to concede easily to those who are out there in the war theater or the possibility that he is indeed an insider having an accurate reading.

And had to be hopeful since I am an early adapter having booked my reservation on the night of the launch even if I am not crazy with the looks.

 

[BeastSlayer]

Well, it is supposed to be easier to manufacture… Or wait is it more difficult?

Easier supposedly by eliminating a lot of complexities. The issue is more on supply chain challenges of components.

 

[Crissa]

Easier supposedly by eliminating a lot of complexities. The issue is more on supply chain challenges of components.

And it's complex to eliminate complexities.

That doesn't mean it will remain complex!'

-Crissa

 

[SolarWizard]

I think my chances of winning the CT raffle are better than tesla making 40k this year.

 

[BeastSlayer]

And it's complex to eliminate complexities.

That doesn't mean it will remain complex!'

-Crissa

And the law of unintended consequences: introduce more complexities.

 

[Dusty]

Step #1: Apply Elon filter to statement (+/- 30% as necessary)

Step #2: Remove Hopes & Dreams goggles (+/- 20% as necessary)

Step #3: Come to grips with reality (+/- 15% as necessary)


Probably 8-10k from August-December. With perfect execution and late July approval and employee sales... 15k at best.

I did a look at the Model 3 launch a while back. I think they only cranked out 9k from September to December (Note: they sold M3s to employees in July prior to wide release) then production exploded in Q1 the following year all the way to end of the year.

 

[CyberGus]

Incredibly low chance at 40k CTs in 2023. That would be an insane ramp, the MY in Austin just hit 5k per week a few weeks ago.

I'm also skeptical of the 40k number for '23, BUT it seems like everyone is interpreting the statement "3rd quarter production start" to mean Sep 30. The 3rd quarter starts July 1.

 

[Dusty]

. . . it seems like everyone is interpreting the statement "3rd quarter production start" to mean Sep 30. The 3rd quarter starts July 1.

See step #2 and #3 on my list... That puts you squarely in September.

 

[BeastSlayer]

Step #1: Apply Elon filter to statement (+/- 30% as necessary)

Step #2: Remove Hopes & Dreams goggles (+/- 20% as necessary)

I would have also given it a larger -80% factor for Elon exaggeration except that it's not Musk who said it.

But my hopes and dreams are admittedly off the charts!

 

[RVAC]

I'm also skeptical of the 40k number for '23, BUT it seems like everyone is interpreting the statement "3rd quarter production start" to mean Sep 30. The 3rd quarter starts July 1.

Yeah, however Elon previously stated the delivery event is going to be end of September so it's not going to be earlier than that.

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