Cybertruck reservation order number -- how to tell your place in line

[edzpan]

Hello everyone,

I know everyone here can't wait to get their Cybertrucks! Unfortunately, I missed the chance to preorder one myself in the earlier stages, so i am now on a mission to find someone who has secured a spot in an early batch(the earlier the better!) and is open to negotiation. I understand the value of your preorder and intend to respect its significance. I am willing to offer an incentive in the tens of thousands range added on to whatever you will have to pay for the truck. If you're open to discussing the possibility of selling your expected vehicle upon its delivery or have any related information, please reach out to me at [email protected]. Thank you for considering my request!

-Edward

Sponsored

 

[Warbird]

I reformatted the output of the program to hopefully make more understandable.
Updated results below. Hopefully it makes it more readable.

So if you just subtract 112744100 from your reservation number. It will give you your place in line for all vehicle types. Model Y, 3 etc.

So, the analysis takes into account the number of auto deliveries published by Tesla. It subtracts the Tesla delivery numbers from each quarter, to get your place in line for just CyberTrucks.

It also tracks Foreign and Texas reservations. The Foreign reservations will be probably moved to the back of the list. While the Texas reservations could be moved up in the list. The foreign and Texas reservations adjustments shouldnt be significant. But I included them for more data.


Analysis results

Quarter: 2019 Q4
112,000 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 92,550 S/X: 19,450) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
- 5,600 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 449,222 Cyber truck orders for quarter.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

So you contend Tesla has one reservation number pool for all products S3XY (and Crissa thinks also solar and energy). And that is why just subtracting 112744100 from your reservation number is not accurate, especially for the later quarters higher numbers. You also suppose that Texas reservation holders will somehow get priority because they are local to the plant.

So lets pretend someone calculates 100,000 as their gross number (subtracting 112744100 from their reservation number). This would place them in the first quarter CT reservations were available, 2019Q4. Looking at the numbers in that first 2019Q4 section of yours, please walk me through how you calculate their actual reservation number.

Here is my guesstimate of what your data says. Since the non CT reservations were roughly 1% in 2019Q4, reservation number 100,000 is more like 99,000? And then how would you calculate same for gross reservation number 1,000,000?

Finally, I just reserved another CT and my gross reservation number is 6,877,167. What is that actual CT number?

 

[KHappe]

My calculations attempt to show the place in line for a CT order, compared to other CT orders.
As you said, subtracting 112744100 from your order number gives your place in line compared to all car orders and maybe solar.
I just subtact out Tesla's published delveries for the various quarters to give a better place in line for a CT order.
In the past Tesla has delivered locally first and then began delivering to other locations.
Unsure if the will stay true for Texas. Texas has horrible laws in regards to auto manufactures being able to deliver locally. Orders outside of North America will definitly get moved to back in list.

 

[Warbird]

...I just subtact out Tesla's published delveries for the various quarters to give a better place in line for a CT order...

Sorry, please explain like I'm five. If my reservation number is RN113744100, which calculates to a gross number of 1,000,000, what is my effective CT reservation number?

 

[Crissa]

So you contend Tesla has one reservation number pool for all products S3XY (and Crissa thinks also solar and energy). And that is why just subtracting 112744100 from your reservation number is not accurate, especially for the later quarters higher numbers. You also suppose that Texas reservation holders will somehow get priority because they are local to the plant.

Yes, that's what the spreadsheet attempts to calculate, and why it exists vs just the simple calculation.

And yes, new technology vehicles Tesla puts out tend to one region, so they can catch unforeseen problems early on.

-Crissa

 

[Warbird]

Yes, that's what the spreadsheet attempts to calculate, and why it exists vs just the simple calculation.

And yes, new technology vehicles Tesla puts out tend to one region, so they can catch unforeseen problems early on.

-Crissa

Yes, I used your spreadsheet. Thank you, that worked great. At least searching for the range of my reservations did. I block most google stuff, so the macros/scripts won't run, but that's OK.

Curious what KHappe's approach calculates too. If you checked his/her data, does yours correlate?

 

[Crissa]

Yes, I used your spreadsheet. Thank you, that worked great. At least searching for the range of my reservations did. I block most google stuff, so the macros/scripts won't run, but that's OK.

Curious what KHappe's approach calculates too. If you checked his/her data, does yours correlate?

The macros are broken, anyhow, as the spreadsheet has gotten too large.

The spreadsheet is not mine.

-Crissa

 

[Warbird]

The macros are broken, anyhow, as the spreadsheet has gotten too large.

The spreadsheet is not mine.

-Crissa

Thanks. The spreadsheet is great. Do you know who maintains it?

One question I have about the spreadsheet is why the "Motor" column lists "Quad Motor"?
The only choices on the original configurator were "Single", "Dual", and "Tri". To my (limited) knowledge, that initial ability to configure motor went away and there was never a "Quad" option. So how is "Quad" getting into the spreadsheet?

 

[KHappe]

Yes, that's what the spreadsheet attempts to calculate, and why it exists vs just the simple calculation.

And yes, new technology vehicles Tesla puts out tend to one region, so they can catch unforeseen problems early on.

-Crissa

So the linked spreadsheet also tracks deliveries? I wasnt aware that it did that.
K

 

[KHappe]

Yes, that's what the spreadsheet attempts to calculate, and why it exists vs just the simple calculation.

And yes, new technology vehicles Tesla puts out tend to one region, so they can catch unforeseen problems early on.

-Crissa

Sorry, please explain like I'm five. If my reservation number is RN113744100, which calculates to a gross number of 1,000,000, what is my effective CT reservation number?


Was your RN from 3rd quarter 2020?
So at the start Q3 2020 there were roughtly 1.1M Cybertrucks already orderd.




Quarter: 2020 Q3
139,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 124,100 S/X: 15,200) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 399,588 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 833,749 Previous CT orders.
- 90,650 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,142,687 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

 

[Derek]

Cybertruckownersclub.com Update: As of May 28, 2020, the reservations spreadsheet (reference it below) shows 713k+ Cybertruck reservations since pre-ordering began on November 21, 2019!

The last time Elon Musk disclosed Cybertruck reservation figures was on November 26, 2019 when he tweeted that 250k pre-orders had been received. That means approximately 463k orders have been received since his update.

To compare, the Model 3 received around 518,000 total reservations between its unveiling in April 2016 and August 2, 2017 (when Musk disclosed the gross reservation figure on Tesla’s Q2 2017 earnings call).

______________________________________

How to tell your place in line for the Cybertruck based on your reservation #:

Your order numbers is just a sequential number, starting at about 112744100 (the number that reservations began). So subtract that from your number for your (approximate) place in line. Keeping in mind the rollout will be regional, so your position in line is only good for your rollout region.

Here is the reservation spreadsheet being updated by showing inputted reservation orders and the approximate # of reservations so far:

(Be patient, it takes a few seconds to load).




To enter your # into the spreadsheet go here: "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--6OR9ECwSwZdkOtWkuslJVCyAAfQv1e..."

Nice. I’m at 38,108 which could get me behind the wheel before the end of 2024. ?

 

[cvalue13]

does anyone know if the tracker sheet still reflects the assumptions stated on the tracker's website?

i didn't pay close attention, but the website's assumptions seem outdated and a bit on the wild side

e.g.,:

• Gigafactory Texas will eventually ramp up to 1,500,000 Cybertrucks per year.
• Cybertruck production will hit 500,000 units per within 16 to 20 months
• Cybertruck production will ramp to 1,000,000 units per year by the end of 34 to 38 month
• Steady state demand in the future will be around 1,500,000 Cybertrucks per year [global]

 

[SparkChaser]

350-375k /yr (or there abouts) is the most recent that I recall hearing

 

[Crissa]

One question I have about the spreadsheet is why the "Motor" column lists "Quad Motor"?
The only choices on the original configurator were "Single", "Dual", and "Tri". To my (limited) knowledge, that initial ability to configure motor went away and there was never a "Quad" option. So how is "Quad" getting into the spreadsheet?

The spreadsheet is crowdsourced. Some people entered hopeful jibberish.

-Crissa

 

[Throwcomputer]

We are getting close to initial deliveries. Whoever coded this tracker should update it so that we can all add our delivery date to the tracker so that they can update the estimated delivery dates more accurately as people start getting theirs.

Sponsored