Cybertruck Breaks Down in Mojave + F-150 Raptor Size Comparison + ~350mile Range Prediction?

[kbolt]

It's simply an observation. I prefer to not get my hopes up and assume that the initial released version will have a 500 mile range when we have seen no evidence of it and a lot of noise that it won't. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does have 500 mile range at release along with a decent price point.

Also, the Model X is not the highest range Tesla. They didn't say "as good as or better than a Model S", which is at about 400 miles for the LR, instead selecting a model that does match the rumors. Not that this is a particularly strong assertion since they said they can't see the range numbers, and the rumored 350 range has never been sourced.

We also don't know what version the employee was driving.

Tesla seldom releases all trims with announced specs at launch, normally rolling additional trims out as production picks up later in the first year of production. It does not mean they wont release a 500 mile version in the future to match the announcement specs.

Actually we've only seen evidence that the tri will be 500+ miles from the launch event. It's only been noise that says less than that. Maybe the employee didn't think of the S and it's range. Maybe he used an X as the comparison because it's the current largest Tesla.

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[Diehard]

after 4 years, if no 500miles version, TSLA will be under $100.

Tesla probably will cover both reservation holders and investors' expectations at the reveal by something that will come soon and something that will come later. The later stuff probably will be more impressive.

As far as a CT that can tow toe to toe long distance with a diesel truck...... that is more of a charging infrastructure and charging speed issue than battery pack size. And that is definitely not going to be ready at the announcement. If CT can juice up 100 KWh in 10 minutes, I don't think people would mind stopping every 100 miles to juice up with a 350 mile CT as long as there is a high power pull through where they need them. And that is not happening overnight. Until it does, alternative propulsion still have a shot.

 

[Regenshire]

The batteries are definitely the restraint, but i think that is a good problem to have. I dont think they are going to go out of their way making a smaller pack, just to produce more CTs. Call me crazy again, but i do not think that Tesla is that short sighted.. The CT is a radical new product, and they know it. They can't afford to have it flop.

They will make as many trucks as battery production allows, but i hope that they do not compromise just to make their end of quarter delivery numbers look good.. In the past they've shown me that they care more for their customer than they care for their investor. That is one of the biggest reasons i AM an investor. I watch the legacy car companies squirm and burn, with great pleasure.

Our views are different here. I think Tesla's biggest concern is always the run rate of their lines as this directly affects margins per vehicle as well as the quarterly delivery numbers which is one of their key metrics. Making less vehicles means every vehicle costs more to make. Its their biggest concern in my opinion and the thing that makes manufacturing vehicles "hard". Making a profit on the vehicles is all about scale and number they can produce per day.

 

[cvalue13]

We seriously just don't know at this point. People saying they know are kidding themselves.

people who do know, do know

 

[CyberGus]

people who do know, do know

Source? ?

 

[HaulingAss]

Next time you’re on the highway, count the number of 1/2 ton trucks towing a boat or something similar…

I've done that. But just because they are on the highway, doesn't mean they are being towed cross-country. But now you have me curious. What is similar to a boat, that is not a boat?

Those towing big RV's on the open road all seem to have F-250, F-350 (or equivalent) at a minimum.

 

[cvalue13]

I don't see how terminology changes anything.. Are you implying that in the future there will be a "true tri" variant? That doesn't make any sense.. If they add a third motor surely it will add performance, but im pretty sure it will be a separate trim level entirely.. Illustrated by the B/W interior, for example.

terminology *Does* change everything, because you keep being confused in virtue of your terminology

to get clear on terminology:

yes, a base 'Cybertruck' (which happens to have 2 motors) is a different "trim level" than the same Cybertruck 'peformance' model (which happens to have 3 motors. Just like the Model S is a different "trim level" (on that view) as a "Model S Plaid."

but that is not what people stuck in 2019 *terminology* are thinking. they are thinking that, by definition, a Cybertruck with 3 motors will be not only faster, etc., but also be a "long range" variant.

call it what you want, but it's *your* terminology that isn't changing anything - and appears to be stuck in a framework of "the trim level called a 'Tri Motor' will be a LR trim level"

and all I'm telling you is, that's not what is getting released on Nov. 30. Yes, there will be a Cybertruck and a Cybertruck 'performance,' but the differences in number of motors is not tied to the hip of any "long range" sort of trim departure

which brings me to:

And we've already been over the fact that if you add performance, you must also add capacity.. Take a basic physics class..

you can keep insulting all you like

it's just that come Nov 30, if you have any decency, going to make your feel bad about being unnecessarily regretful about that behavior

but to your incorrect (and personal) bluster:

• The Model S has a EPA range of 405mi, two motors, and a 100kWh pack.
• The Model S Plaid has a EPA range of 396mi, three motors, and a 100kWh pack.

since we're talking about range here, unclear how it's relevant when you say "if you add performance, you must also add capacity.. Take a basic physics class."

regardless, the CT will have one pack size, just like the S/Plaid. so not only with the CT 'performance' have more speed (and so likely, towing/payload capabilities), it will have slightly *lower* range than the base CT

 

[cvalue13]

Yes, but the performance model isn't plaid or quad.. its just the "performance" tri variant, thats all... We've namely seen the performance variant, confirming there are two trims on release. I remember arguing that there would only be one trim, the dual motor on release..

Looks like i was right on this one, at least.. Still got your bookmark?

We haven't seen a Plaid CT, show me one.

you're not following, at all

*I'm* the one telling *you* that the CT 'performance' referenced by musk *is* the tri motor variant being released on Nov. 30

the 'performance' CT is any one you see with white interior - knock your self out on google

 

[cvalue13]

Source? ?

@TheLastStarfighter is my source. he and I have a brilliant bit running, where *he's* my source, but to obscure that fact, he makes a bunch of demands for people to cite their sources

i'll admit, though, there's a gap in his performance in that I've never seen him banging the table at @greggertruck

 

[Arctic_White]

Not useless, just less useful. However, 95% of the target market could care less about towing.

You're right though, a 500 mile trim would dominate.

I've followed Tesla for a long time now. Sure, there are delays but has Tesla ever over-promised and under-delivered?

That's why I'm one of the very few here who thinks that the initial launch will include a 500-mile range variant.

In fact, I would be shocked if they do not have a 500+ mile variant *and* keep the price high.

 

[HaulingAss]

Our views are different here. I think Tesla's biggest concern is always the run rate of their lines as this directly affects margins per vehicle as well as the quarterly delivery numbers which is one of their key metrics. Making less vehicles means every vehicle costs more to make. Its their biggest concern in my opinion and the thing that makes manufacturing vehicles "hard". Making a profit on the vehicles is all about scale and number they can produce per day.

Tesla plans a run rate of 150K by next year vs. the approximately 13K F-150 Lightnings Ford will have made by the end of 2023. In 2022, Ford sold 13,258 Lightning F-150's and in the first 3 quarters of this year they don't even have that many. It looks like they will close out the year around the same as last year. Some ramp, considering that in 2022 they didn't even start until May. In effect, production of Ford's only electric pickup truck has been slowing down, not ramping higher. This is in direct opposition to Ford's stated production goals for the Lightning.

Volume efficiencies are important, but they come with decreasing benefit as volumes ramp higher. Making only 13K/year is wildly less efficient than having a run rate of 150K/year.

 

[cvalue13]

That's why I'm one of the very few here who thinks that the initial launch will include a 500-mile range variant.

ahhh, but if it's a minority, it's a vocal minority

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

Maybe Tesla can provide a 500-mile version with a non-Tesla 4680(or 4695) battery for tri-motors. Same battery enclosure but higher energy density and no tax credit.

 

[TyPope]

Yes, but the performance model isn't plaid or quad.. its just the "performance" tri variant, thats all... We've namely seen the performance variant, confirming there are two trims on release. I remember arguing that there would only be one trim, the dual motor on release..

Looks like i was right on this one, at least.. Still got your bookmark?

We haven't seen a Plaid CT, show me one.

Lets try this out... IF the only range being offered is 350 miles but there are two varieties, maybe they break down like this?

2 motor standard = 350 mile range
3 motor standard = ??? (not available at this time)
3 motor performance = 350 mile range
4 motor plaid = ??? mile range (not available at this time)

Am I close?

 

[Regenshire]

Maybe Tesla can provide a 500-mile version with a non-Tesla 4680(or 4695) battery for tri-motors. Same battery enclosure but higher energy density and no tax credit.

And who would this 3rd party be? I don't think any other suppliers have volume 4680 production going yet. Panasonic delayed volume production until 2024 for 4680.

Has anyone heard anything about LG beginning to produce 4680 yet? I know they had aspirations to start this year, but I haven't heard anything recently.

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