Would Tesla lower price quicker if a bunch of cancellations happen?

[Tedacules]

Here’s my question, if someone reserves a CT overseas and I reserve my after them (United States) will my reservation jump the line?

Yes just like right now everyone in Texas and California are jumping the line.

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[cvalue13]

Does the EV tax credit include the base price only or is it all in, including options. If they make us include upgrades like tires or hitches or even storage bins for under the rear seats, we'll immediately be over the max 80k. Does anyone know?

Off the Base MSRP., is my understanding. They want you to be able to get the $7500 off so as to beat the competitions comparable equipment/trim pricing... ie: Ford Lighting.

if it’s physically attached to the truck and on the Monroney sticker, it’s in the MSRP and counts.

There will be factory-only accessories that, if selected at purchase, will bust the MSRP cap.

don’t plan on folding accessories or options into your financing, and hope that things you want can be purchased off the website and installed by service centers later

 

[Crissa]

No, they will just produce fewer CyberTrucks. CyberTrucks are difficult to make, so that works out fine for Tesla. They’ll be ramping up production to 200,000+ a year by 2025...

...Hence, if 75% of reservation holders bail, they'd need to seek options, like price cuts.

Making fewer means not ramping. So which is it?

Lets say that there are 1 million reservations. Initial wisdom was that the conversion rate would be 40%, now...

What wisdom?

Tesla has always had conversion rates higher than 75%.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

Remember when Rivian raised the price on the release of the R1T by 20% and a huge number of people canceled their orders? Rivian ended up honoring the original price and asking people who canceled to come back. It could happen, but it is not likely with 2+ million reservations. If you can wait 2-3 years, the price will decrease.

The difference here is that Rivian was already selling it to the earliest reservation holders at the anticipated price, but then decided to raise the price on the remaining reservation holders at some arbitrary point.

In this case, Tesla established the actual price before the first delivery.

 

[HaulingAss]

...Hence, if 75% of reservation holders bail, they'd need to seek options, like price cuts.

Making fewer means not ramping. So which is it?

Exactly. Tesla will continue to ramp until they reach the capacity of the production line.

What wisdom?

Tesla has always had conversion rates higher than 75%.

It's not clear to me that the Tesla Model 3 conversion rate was higher than 75%. I recall Tesla starting a bunch of promotions in fall of 2018, far before they had exhausted the reservation list. There were still tons of people waiting for their reserved Model 3 when I put in an order for my Performance Model 3 and got it in about 2-3 weeks. They even sweetened the deal with free Supercharging for life.

Because the prices were higher than originally announced, more than 25% dropped out.

I expect Cybertruck reservation conversions will only be about 25%, in part because of the low price to make a reservation. We had to deposit $2000-$2500 (IIRC) on our first and second Model 3. The low conversion rate won't matter to Tesla though, because new reservations will come in to replace original reservations that are cancelled. Reservations made next year will likely have a much higher conversion rate because the price won't be higher than anticipated. Once people see how nice Cybertruck is, how well it drives for a truck, how much it can do, there will be plenty of new buyers. Especially after they see them on the road and it's polarizing styling starts to seem more normal.

 

[Fleetwood75]

Not trying to be mean or rude, but there are PLENTY of us who have been saving for 4 years and have ample financial resources to be able to afford the higher priced truck. There have been enough indicators through the past 4 years that this truck was definitely going to be higher priced than the guidance put out initially. It’s also priced competitively for other high trim trucks. Check out a Platinum or Limited Ford Super Duty or Denali/High Country Sierra/Silverado from GM. All three at or near $100k. Demand wont be an issue for at least 2 years. Supply will be the biggest issue, especially since they think they can only make 250k per year. I am an early 112 reservation holder and I’m not expecting to have my truck until mid to late 2024. Most reservation holders won’t see theirs till 2025 or later. Save up now. There’s still plenty of time to get a bigger down payment, plus don’t forget the $7500 tax incentive can be used at time of purchase starting in January. That gets AWD down to $72400 right off the bat.

amen brother! Same situation here but I don’t even qualify for the $7500 tax incentive which I just recently learned. People complaining about price have had literally years to be saving up, and even if you only saved $50k for your dual motor that’s still a hell of a down payment on $80k!

 

[Cyberman]

Shit.. Goodbye kidneys, hello Cybertruck.

I wish Larry Hagman needed another liver

 

[Dumb Game]

Yes just like right now everyone in Texas and California are jumping the line.

if Tesla's only shipping to Texas and or California that’s BS. I live in Manchester Missouri, which is about roughly 10 hours from Dallas Texas. I have no problems with flying to giga Texas to pick up my cyber beast then drive back to Manchester Missouri. I made my cyber truck reservation December 24, 2019 and if someone currently living in Texas in or California reserve their Tesla cyber truck in 2020 and they received their vehicle before I do that’s not right again it’s almost pointless to make a reservation. If they only going to release these vehicles and certain regions in the US, that makes absolutely no sense to me. give us the option to fly down, pick up our vehicles and drive it back or set our own delivery service.

 

[cvalue13]

if Tesla's only shipping to Texas and or California that’s BS. I live in Manchester Missouri, which is about roughly 10 hours from Dallas Texas. I have no problems with flying to giga Texas to pick up my cyber beast then drive back to Manchester Missouri. I made my cyber truck reservation December 24, 2019 and if someone currently living in Texas in or California reserve their Tesla cyber truck in 2020 and they received their vehicle before I do that’s not right again it’s almost pointless to make a reservation. If they only going to release these vehicles and certain regions in the US, that makes absolutely no sense to me. give us the option to fly down, pick up our vehicles and drive it back or set our own delivery service.

First, they currently only selling Foundation units to people they hand select - it’s not exactly jumping the line, insofar as retail sales haven’t begun and these are being sold to folks Tesla seems special. You might have tickets to the first showing of the movie, but the premier was in Hollywood a few months before that and you weren’t in that line.


Second, they’re are currently selling only in CA and TX to keep the trucks close by to the only folks in the world right now that can service these things if something goes wrong.


These are all pretty normal course steps similar to what Tesla’s done in the past

 

[Dumb Game]

First, they currently only selling Foundation units to people they hand select - it’s not exactly jumping the line, insofar as retail sales haven’t begun and these are being sold to folks Tesla seems special. You might have tickets to the first showing of the movie, but the premier was in Hollywood a few months before that and you weren’t in that line.


Second, they’re are currently selling only in CA and TX to keep the trucks close by to the only folks in the world right now that can service these things if something goes wrong.


These are all pretty normal course steps similar to what Tesla’s done in the past

how much of a heads up do you think Tesla will give us. I got that email from Tesla saying we have your reservation in queue. because I plan to take a week vacation before and after I get my vehicle, I see a lot of sleepless nights ahead.

 

[cvalue13]

how much of a heads up do you think Tesla will give us. I got that email from Tesla saying we have your reservation in queue. because I plan to take a week vacation before and after I get my vehicle, I see a lot of sleepless nights ahead.

do you have an idea of what place “in line” you may be, based on your pre-order number?

If it’s less than 60k (assuming a 50% conversion) you *might possibly* have a chance in 2024, and info will be sporadic and this forum constantly trying to guess or understand the process

If your number is greater than 60k, you more likely have over a year or more for the process to clarify and become more predictable

of course, it’s Tesla, so they’re always full of surprises/mind-changes

but ultimately, under any scenario. you’ll get a configuration email and pay a deposit and then have weeks or months before delivery and a sales person to answer questions.

 

[davelloydbrown]

...Hence, if 75% of reservation holders bail, they'd need to seek options, like price cuts.

Making fewer means not ramping. So which is it?


What wisdom?

Tesla has always had conversion rates higher than 75%.

-Crissa

Got that from the analysts (IMO the conversion rate will be more like 20-30%), also Tesla has never before increased the price by 50-60% and reduced the mileage by close to 40%.

Dan Ives says 40% at 8:56 in and I believe this was before the reveal.

 

[Dumb Game]

do you have an idea of what place “in line” you may be, based on your pre-order number?

If it’s less than 60k (assuming a 50% conversion) you *might possibly* have a chance in 2024, and info will be sporadic and this forum constantly trying to guess or understand the process

If your number is greater than 60k, you more likely have over a year or more for the process to clarify and become more predictable

of course, it’s Tesla, so they’re always full of surprises/mind-changes

but ultimately, under any scenario. you’ll get a configuration email and pay a deposit and then have weeks or months before delivery and a sales person to answer questions.

I pre-ordered Dec 24, 2019. It’s was a boring night at the in-laws. Subtracting from the first RN number I’m 443,XXX. Can’t remember the last 3 digits

 

[CYBRSMTH]

The difference here is that Rivian was already selling it to the earliest reservation holders at the anticipated price, but then decided to raise the price on the remaining reservation holders at some arbitrary point.

In this case, Tesla established the actual price before the first delivery.

Tesla should not estimate, speculate, or announce any pricing or specs until a vehicle is actually ready to delivery. It would save them all kinds of blowback.

 

[davelloydbrown]

Tesla should not estimate, speculate, or announce any pricing or specs until a vehicle is actually ready to delivery. It would save them all kinds of blowback.

Yeah maybe they will learn their lesson with the CT.

You notice that the M2 seems to be fairly advanced in the planning but nothing from Elon. Initially I though this was because they didn't want to cannibalize the M3 sales, but maybe this is the reason.

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