Foundation Series Cybertruck Invites still going out?

[MyKidCouldDrawThat]

I’ve seen knowledgeable reports saying that, industry-wide, EV adoption rate is decreasing. And separately, obviously, new car sales in general are slowing if only due to interest rates and increases depreciation in trade-ins.

Meanwhile, for these stated reasons Ford specifically has recently said they are going to cut production of the Lightning.


However, having followed Ford closely, I can’t tell what to make of the production cuts. Reason being, with the Lightning Ford is always talking out both sides of its mouth because in 2025 it’s slated to reveal it’s all-new, ground up, BEV truck - which won’t be an F150, but instead an entirely new line of F-series.

So, like every Ford Lightning iteration before this BEV one, back to the ‘80s, the BEV Lightning was always going to be a temporary offering and loss-leader for essentially marketing and R&D purposes. They know they’re about to produce a whole new full-sized BEV truck, and the Lightning will he let to fade away.

Meanwhile Lightning sales have done fine, and so with the production cut especially, I don’t foresee them dropping prices like a rock. If anything, they keep prices high in order to throttle back orders, until the new truck is revealed in 2025.

Who knows ??‍

Crazy, interested to see what they come up with. Annoying that they will abandon the lightning again like that. Maybe it will become a collector piece like the last one

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[Darth abbott]

feels like a trickle at best, doesn’t it?

man’s a trickle seems conceivably consistent with backfilling against prior invites that back out

either way, a trickle is *not* pushing to keep orders going at the pace they were before


increasingly considering that Tesla is in fact sticking with 1,000FS units, or at least slowing down to consider their options / survey the field.

There is absolutely no way it's 1000 only. There are over 500 logged on here and that would mean 50% + of people who placed and order not only belong to this forum but also filled out the spreadsheet logging it. It's at least 20k. 5% sounds a lot more likely to join the forum and fill in info that 50%.

 

[DeadSetElectric]

There is absolutely no way it's 1000 only.

Data suggests that was and still is the plan. TBD if it changes though.

 

[bmoorewiz]

I ordered a cyberbeast a couple of weeks ago. My RN was RN11275

 

[cvalue13]

There is absolutely no way it's 1000 only.

That’s one opinion. And I get it.

but this:

It's at least 20k.

is utter nonsense


First, the notion that there have been 20,000 orders to date is based on zero actual evidence.

Second, it’s based instead only on some *feeling* and “wet finger in air” number pulled out of an emotional hat.

Third, it’s incongruent with a few pieces of data actually available. For example, Tesla is still signaling that for AWDs deliveries will happen by end of March. Now, we all know how Tesla timing estimates can go, but so too go their production estimates. The idea that even Tesla miss-believes that in the first quarter of its ramp it will produce and deliver all those AWDs, is unbelievable.


I get it. 1,000 seems equally unlikely for many of the same “wet finger in air” reasons.

But, at present? Know what that equally unlikely seeming scenario has going for it that 20K doesn’t?

Some evidence whatsoever: for one, that the Tesla VIN program has pretty clearly set aside and slotted 1000 FS VINs for FS. For two, that I’m telling you that is still the internal official number (even if it’s subject to change).

Then there’s the indirect evidence. While it may be hard to believe that 70% of total orders made their way into this forum’s order tracing chart, it’s no more hard to believe that only 3% made it here.

Again: people receiving orders right now are a highly screwed polling batch, far more likely to (A) be on this forum, (C), be on xwitter, (D) be on some other Tesla forum, and (E) once invited/ordered, go looking for information at those places, and see well-known eg X Twitter influencers like Sawyer Merit employing them to come to this forum and fill it out.

So while you might find a 70% capture rate unbelievable, as unbelievable as it is it’s still better than the notion that only 3-6% of people have been captured.


So, this is all to say:

Given the above, any reasonable person can at best say “fuck if I know, it all seems crazy”

But nobody with their head screwed on right thinks Tesla has 20K orders, for which they sent out - what 40-60-80K invites?

 

[lowtek]

I love my Raptor! Too many hobbies or I'd have a Raptor R!

 

[Dazajj]

That’s one opinion. And I get it.

but this:





is utter nonsense


First, the notion that there have been 20,000 orders to date is based on zero actual evidence.

Second, it’s based instead only on some *feeling* and “wet finger in air” number pulled out of an emotional hat.

Third, it’s incongruent with a few pieces of data actually available. For example, Tesla is still signaling that for AWDs deliveries will happen by end of March. Now, we all know how Tesla timing estimates can go, but so too go their production estimates. The idea that even Tesla miss-believes that in the first quarter of its ramp it will produce and deliver all those AWDs, is unbelievable.


I get it. 1,000 seems equally unlikely for many of the same “wet finger in air” reasons.

But, at present? Know what that equally unlikely seeming scenario has going for it that 20K doesn’t?

Some evidence whatsoever: for one, that the Tesla VIN program has pretty clearly set aside and slotted 1000 FS VINs for FS. For two, that I’m telling you that is still the internal official number (even if it’s subject to change).

Then there’s the indirect evidence. While it may be hard to believe that 70% of total orders made their way into this forum’s order tracing chart, it’s no more hard to believe that only 3% made it here.

Again: people receiving orders right now are a highly screwed polling batch, far more likely to (A) be on this forum, (C), be on xwitter, (D) be on some other Tesla forum, and (E) once invited/ordered, go looking for information at those places, and see well-known eg X Twitter influencers like Sawyer Merit employing them to come to this forum and fill it out.

So while you might find a 70% capture rate unbelievable, as unbelievable as it is it’s still better than the notion that only 3-6% of people have been captured.


So, this is all to say:

Given the above, any reasonable person can at best say “fuck if I know, it all seems crazy”

But nobody with their head screwed on right thinks Tesla has 20K orders, for which they sent out - what 40-60-80K invites?

I agree with you. For me, it seems more probable that the majority of people that have placed an order for the FS would be on this site. If you were not on the site before you ordered, it’s more than likely that you will be afterwards as everyone is looking for more intel on when they will get their CT. That’s what 9/10 would do. Google what’s next, and you will most likely end up finding this site…

 

[cvalue13]

I agree with you. For me, it seems more probable that the majority of people that have placed an order for the FS would be on this site. If you were not on the site before you ordered, it’s more than likely that you will be afterwards as everyone is looking for more intel on when they will get their CT. That’s what 9/10 would do. Google what’s next, and you will most likely end up finding this site…

And I’m not at all suggesting that it wouldn’t be surprising - in fact I’m explicitly saying it instinctively seems unlikely

unlikely as 1K seems, it’s WAY more likely than 20K orders to date

 

[Ward L]

Just to show how little we know about deliveries and production, not one Owners Club member has recorded a delivery on the “Completed Orders” thread. The 80 guys that ordered on Dec 8th don’t have a “ring and a date” yet? There is too much we have no clue about except it is certainly a feeding frenzy.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

feels like a trickle at best, doesn’t it?

man’s a trickle seems conceivably consistent with backfilling against prior invites that back out

either way, a trickle is *not* pushing to keep orders going at the pace they were before


increasingly considering that Tesla is in fact sticking with 1,000FS units, or at least slowing down to consider their options / survey the field.

Definitely seems that way…

 

[dandor]

Two things are very likely right now. At a minimum there are at least 5000 FS trucks planned. The second is that the January to March deliveries is very unlikely to be fulfilled for all the people who got invites and reserved with no one here even getting a VIN yet. At a minimum it will take until the second quarter for the FS to be finished for dual motor.

No insight here, but this seems like reality. I still think that this ramp will go much slower than most people think and a possibility of almost the entire year being FS vehicles. People expecting to order the regular sub $80,000 AWD Cybertruck with the $7500 anytime soon will be extremely disappointed.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Are you kidding me right now? What have you all been doing for the last 4 years on this forum. It's all speculation literally almost everything on this forum is speculation. Tesla gives out almost no information. The fact that all of you have in speculating for 4 years and now consider yourself experts as sad. Inconsider anybody who joined the forum recently as being naive or unknowing like we couldn't follow Tesla outside of this one forum.

Never said new members are naïve or unknowing. In fact since December there have been some great new additions to the forum that have added great incite and perspective.

This forum is fortunate to have a great group that is growing all the time. You can make your time here what you want or not.

 

[Longranger]

Getting an AWD with rebates is looking less and less likely for 2024. My FS invite from 12/24 is still active which suggests that they have not hit their target number for FS yet.

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