Cybertruck will be the last Tesla to use stainless steel exoskeleton

[dalton108]

I work with clients, in a large organization. When walking from my parking spot to the office (back when that was a thing lol) I would see plenty of political bumper-stickers espousing candidates or causes that I vehemently oppose, and yet all of my co-workers are (mostly) rational and agreeable people to work with. Avoiding political topics around the water cooler helps keep it that way.

I would never delve into controversial topics with clients. It's a career-limiting move.

People used to understand that you don’t talk about politics or religion in business. We have a new crop of people who think that their opinion is something that the rest of us need to know and that everybody who has a different opinion is stupid or evil. Get over yourselves!

I’m from the George Carlin school of peopling; I’m not gonna hate you because of some bogus stereotype or bias. There’s plenty of good reasons for me to hate you individually and specifically! ?

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[Crissa]

I would never delve into controversial topics with clients. It's a career-limiting move.

That's a choice that others don't always get, though.

Hence diversity, equity, inclusion and Popper's Paradox.

?‍ I can't say how to fix it, but staying aware and inclusive without sliding into specific politics seems the way to go to me. There are more things as humans we have in common than we don't.

-Crissa

 

[cybercricket]

People used to understand that you don’t talk about politics or religion in business. We have a new crop of people who think that their opinion is something that the rest of us need to know and that everybody who has a different opinion is stupid or evil. Get over yourselves!

I’m from the George Carlin school of peopling; I’m not gonna hate you because of some bogus stereotype or bias. There’s plenty of good reasons for me to hate you individually and specifically! ?

Men are generally rational and will usually get along despite the differences of opinions and life preferences. So then you can guess what the source of issues in the workplace is...

 

[dalton108]

I’d add there’s a third group: car people that want something different. Something iconic.
I’m not a truck guy or an EV guy but I’ve always had vehicles that were a little different.
And I was in a position to afford one.

People like me…we’ve already bought the Cybertruck…there aren’t many of us left that want one.

So my guess would be in a year or two Tesla will introduce a more traditional looking truck that will appeal to the masses and get the truck guys.

but the Cybertruck as it current is….wont get mass market appeal.

+1 my next car will be in Aptera. Not because I need it.

 

[CyberGus]

We have a new crop of people who think that their opinion is something that the rest of us need to know and that everybody who has a different opinion is stupid or evil.

Everyone that fails to share my opinion is both stupid and evil. It's just not my job to fix them ?‍

 

[noobla3]

+1 my next car will be in Aptera. Not because I need it.

Are they still around? I remember them from 2008 when it was supposed to have a small motor that got good mileage. They reinvented themselves to be electric but still had the same body.

 

[dalton108]

1. Thank you for correcting me. I did fail to acknowledge that these labels are not mutually exclusive and our enemies being both is totally feasible, if not likely.

2. You’ve stumbled on yet another important forgotten virtue. Live and let live. I will often close an argument out online by letting the dumb one know that I’m not here to save them. As, you were. ?

 

[dalton108]

Are they still around? I remember them from 2008 when it was supposed to have a small motor that got good mileage. They reinvented themselves to be electric but still had the same body.

Yep, just showed off their release candidate at CES.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I concur 100%. 125,000 yearly CT production will never happen.

The $80k+ premium MSRP and political nonsense associated with Elon Musk will limit CT sales to <50k units annually.

'Never' is a very strong word. I just did a cursory look and the 2025 Ford Raptor R lists for $113K. At $72,500 the Cybertruck AWD is very competitive with its ICE equivalents. The world will figure this out as the dust settles. I cannot say anything about the Elon nonsense. It isn't helping for sure.

 

[HaulingAss]

There could be a tax credit, but I wouldn't expect any price decreases anytime soon. Reports were that the CT lost money in Q4 with non-FS. The earnings showed strong hints at that with Tesla posting their lowest all-time margins per vehicle, despite the fact the deck said that COGs on SEXY were an all-time low.

Historically, Tesla has had much lower margins on vehicle sales than what they just reported. So, it's inaccurate to say they were the "lowest all-time margins per vehicle". Words should have meaning.

Tesla reported Q4 COGS of ~$34,750 per vehicle (including Cybertruck) vs. ~$36,800 in Q2. So you can see how quickly COGS was falling. Unfortunately, those efficiencies were more than wiped out due to falling transaction prices and incentives. The Cybertruck was not immune either.

It should be pointed out that Tesla ended Q4 with only 12 days of sales on hand, the lowest it's been for years. So, the narrative that Tesla was having trouble moving inventory, despite the price cutting and incentives, was false. The incentives were VERY effective in clearing out basically all of the inventory (12 days of sales on hand hasn't been seen since 2021).

Tesla sold an all-time record number of vehicles in Q4 (495,570 vehicles) and Cybertrucks only made up ~2.2% of that total. That said, Tesla sold more Cybertrucks than either Model S or Model X, and that will likely be the case from here on out.

With only around 38,000 Cybertrucks sold for all of 2024 (and probably around 11,000-12,000 in Q4), any Q4 losses from the Cybertruck would be a very minor contributor to the low overall margins (which were due to price cutting and incentives). Total automotive revenue in the fourth quarter was a whopping $19.8 BILLION dollars. I'll let you do the math. Cybertruck losses in Q4 (if any) were probably not much more than 40 million. The reason it's unclear whether Tesla lost significant amounts on Cybertruck in Q4 is because that was a period of rapid lowering of COGS and the Cybertruck likely had the most opportunities for lowering COGS. My best guess is they lost around $3-$4K on each one due to the rush for lower cost options without FSD.

Compared to Ford and GM EV truck sales, a loss of only $3-$4K each would be a stellar performance! The cost to produce Cybertrucks is still falling, I expect them to be roughly breakeven this quarter and profitable by Q2.

 

[HaulingAss]

I concur 100%. 125,000 yearly CT production will never happen.

The $80k+ premium MSRP and political nonsense associated with Elon Musk will limit CT sales to <50k units annually.

Conservatives are big truck buyers and they love Elon more than ever.

The political nonsense associated with Elon is a big nothing burger when it comes to sales as is proven by the fact that Q4 sales just blew away any previous quarter's sales in history. And the fact that Tesla has the best-selling car in the world for two years running. Does that mean new car buyers hate Jim Farley and Mary Barra even more? ?

Furthermore, Tesla ended Q4 with the fewest days of inventory/in-transit, since 2021. And with only 12 days of inventory, they beat every other auto manufacturer, including all those companies whose CEO doesn't share their political leanings.

The truth of the matter is the purchase of a new car is the second biggest expense most people will face, after their home, and thus they don't base it upon whether the CEO of the company that makes the car voted for the same person they prefer. It's not even on most people's radar.

 

[Musicurry]

That's a choice that others don't always get, though.

Hence diversity, equity, inclusion and Popper's Paradox.

?‍ I can't say how to fix it, but staying aware and inclusive without sliding into specific politics seems the way to go to me. There are more things as humans we have in common than we don't.

-Crissa

Opinion about politics and religion? Yes, we have in common… We share the common problem of rejecting God over us; we commonly disregard our Creator in the name of “whatever I wanna do”. Thankfully Jesus offers Himself as the common bridge back to God! I couldn’t commonly agree with you more! Thanks for that.

 

[HaulingAss]

If the "Use in Future Vehicles" box is not checked, then it seems like a sign that Tesla doesn't plan to use the technology in future vehicles. But maybe that's just my interpretation.

You are actually agreeing with me when you say the lack of a check mark indicates they have no plans to use the tech in future vehicles. But not planning to use a technology is not the same as saying they won't use that technology, they just don't have any new vehicles in the pipeline that use it.

 

[HaulingAss]

CT will certainly will hit a "wall" in its current shape because of the all 3: price, range and utility. Good news is Tesla only needs to make "minor" modifications to the vehicle in order to expand the market. While the range increase may be a bit tricky (battery capacity increase without taking bed space), there is a very low hanging fruit with towing capacity. I believe that's the biggest obstacle towards CT adoption for a lot of "work truck" customers. I'm basically making the same claim I've made before, but what it boils down to is the following :

Average skid steer (Bobcat, etc) - 8000lb
skid steer attachments - 2000lb
trailer - 3000lb
random stuff buffer - 1000lb

So towing rating for CT needs to be upped to 14-15k, and it's a pretty straightforward task given the limit currently is only in the rear bumper/hitch receiver design. They could even just go straight for making a gooseneck setup to overcome the limit and keep the current rear bumper as-is for lighter loads.

The hitch design is NOT the limiting factor for towing capacity!

The Cybertruck is designed to be a truck suitable for the masses, not a heavy-duty commercial truck. The limitation on towing comes down to efficiency and what kind of tires Tesla wanted to deliver with the Cybertruck. Heavier duty tires would have limited range, comfort, off-road ability, etc. Tesla positioned the Cybertruck to meet the widest variety of market needs and towing a skid-steer with attachments is not a mainstream need. It would have compromised the qualities that make it such a good competitor in the 1/2-ton truck market.

I don't know of ANY 1/2-ton trucks rated to tow 14,000-15,000 lbs. That's a different market that is not nearly as large as the 1/2-ton market.

 

[cybercricket]

The hitch design is NOT the limiting factor for towing capacity!

The Cybertruck is designed to be a truck suitable for the masses, not a heavy-duty commercial truck. The limitation on towing comes down to efficiency and what kind of tires Tesla wanted to deliver with the Cybertruck. Heavier duty tires would have limited range, comfort, off-road ability, etc. Tesla positioned the Cybertruck to meet the widest variety of market needs and towing a skid-steer with attachments is not a mainstream need. It would have compromised the qualities that make it such a good competitor in the 1/2-ton truck market.

I don't know of ANY 1/2-ton trucks rated to tow 14,000-15,000 lbs. That's a different market that is not nearly as large as the 1/2-ton market.

Alright Mr. Engineer, please enlighten us about the limiting factor at play. You can even throw some tensile and shear strength numbers if you like.

To add... I don't know many 1/2-ton trucks with 600HP engines either. Not only that terminology is outdated and is basically arbitrary, but also we're not talking about making CT comparable to something, we're talking about making CT useful in segments where additional market can be captured regardless of the involved terminology.

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