What would it take to make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck?

[eswimm]

The development is done, the real question is if continued operations are covered by sales. Political and economic conditions create enough uncertainty that Tesla shouldn't make any rash decisions about cancelling the truck, they should just cut production back to the point that it meets demand. Even with interest rate incentives, the CT is a big purchase in an economy that may or may not be entering a recession.

Those of us that like our Cybertrucks don't have anything to gain by cancelled production. It would only introduce scarcity for parts, crater resale value and leave you with a vehicle you can't easily replace if it gets totaled.

I don't think this has anything to do with the controversial Cybertruck design, there are other traditional truck EVs that aren't exactly flying off the shelves.

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[OldDirtyRobot]

The CT isn't going anywhere. It just wont be a high volume vehicle (relative to the Y and 3). The only reason people thought it might be was based on the reservations numbers, but there's a huge gulf between the $100 reservation fee and actually purchasing the truck. The conversion rate from reservation to purchase was already going to be low, but the spec/price difference drove that number down even further.

 

[Sjohnson20]

The fact that other countries really don't care about large pick ups or they aren't legal there is a big problem for sales. You mainly only have the US market. And the buyers in the US have all kinds of issues with EV trucks. At least the cars when you invest in making one it can be sold in many countries. You have to sell the crap out of the trucks in one country to make any profit. Like Ford and GM do with the gas trucks.

 

[YDR37]

When is RIvian going to discontinue the R1T truck? The R1S SUV is estimated around 75% of total Rivian vehicle sales.

The R1S clearly sells better than the R1T. However, the two vehicles share a common platform. As long as the R1S is selling, it probably doesn't cost Rivian much more to also offer the R1T.

But Rivian apparently does not see a future in EV trucks. They have announced three upcoming vehicles (R2, R3, R3X) and they are all SUVs. I suspect that the R1T will be Rivian's first and last pickup.

This begs the question: what would sales look like if Tesla produced a "CyberSUV?" I would guess 5x more than Cybertruck.

I think that "full-sized SUV people" are much more receptive to EVs than "full-sized truck people". I could see a "CyberSUV" (like the hypothetical design below) outselling the Cybertruck.

 

[scottf200]

But Rivian apparently does not see a future in EV trucks. They have announced three upcoming vehicles (R2, R3, R3X) and they are all SUVs. I suspect that the R1T will be Rivian's first and last pickup.

A critical thinking aspect of this is what's the best selling car size+shape (maneuverability and inside volume) for sales not only inside and outside of the USA ... if you are trying to move toward large volume sales.

 

[GuyV]

But the 3 and the Y butchered those sales numbers by offering similar functionality in a smaller cheaper package.

Perhaps we see Mini CyberTruck soon. ?

Adult Cyberquad first.

 

[Nutron]

I personally think the lack of bringing FSD to parity with at least Hw3 in terms of features (yes I do factor in less truck=less training data so perhaps that the biggest factor) If FDS were more promotable, perhasp an easier sell to John Q Wannaown a CT thats getting regular SW improvements???

 

[Vagis9780]

What volume of sales or other events would make Tesla move on from the Cybertruck? Many years? Or is the time coming soon or never?

Straws are being grasped via offerings and with more to come. Production is slowing. Inventory is climbing. Sales are stagnant.

Tesla has plenty of sunk costs in the product, can they recover sales and excitement without adding range or dramatically lowering price?

How many of 1.2 million reservations have cancelled.

 

[BrickBungalow]

Tesla has never followed industry standard practices. Metrics that would dictate moves at other automakers probably don't apply. I bet Tesla rides it out. I think the CT will come into its own as contractors discover its unique advantages.

 

[SCTesla]

How many of 1.2 million reservations have cancelled.

There have been less than 50k orders total. That doesn't mean all others have cancelled.

 

[Vagis9780]

There have been less than 50k orders total. That doesn't mean all others have cancelled.

What is current build so far? Monthly production rate?

 

[ChiTownCT]

Tesla has never followed industry standard practices. Metrics that would dictate moves at other automakers probably don't apply. I bet Tesla rides it out. I think the CT will come into its own as contractors discover its unique advantages.

Yea probably, most people dont even know I have a bed under the tonneau cover..

 

[SCTesla]

What is current build so far? Monthly production rate?

The VIN is irrelevant, they don't match with sales. We have no idea of the production rate, but we know there were around 6k sold in Q1 and potentially around 10k in inventory.

 

[WormtownKris]

Tesla might be consolidating their CT expenditures for the near future (ie-range extender cancellation). But I think the mere offering of 12 months free FSD (presumably to give more validation and learning miles to the neural network to improve CT FSD) shows that they intend to ride this out. Tesla knows (as most of us owners know, if we are being honest) that this vehicle is a game changer and is the best pickup out there for anyone who doesn't tow their boat 300 miles to the lake and back every weekend.
They just have to ride out the current political storm and wait for the one-on-one interactions to take their toll and enlighten the masses. I feel they intend to do so.
I find that having my truck parked at work, at least once per week I get called outside to show some customer what this weird spaceship thing is that they always see parked at the lumberyard. Every time I do an impromptu mini tour of the truck, I touch on several totally different things. (I haven't nailed the CT elevator speech yet!) There is so much that is cool about this truck, you can't mention it all in five minutes. I've never had a party leave thinking the CT isn't cool. It might not be for everyone, but I guaranty you, NO ONE has left me and thought, "what a stupid vehicle."
Beyond all the truck stuff- (towing and load capacity, variable ride heights, off road capacity, wade mode, trailer mode, etc)- all the high-tech stuff- (FSD, SBW, 4WS, sound system, UI, connectivity, Tesla app, etc), there are still so many little bits of awesome. It rides like a luxury SUV, but parks like a Honda Civic. I actually get a kick out of parking it in my driveway. I have to parallel park my CT in front of my son's car, but behind a bush, out of the travel lane in and out of the garage. The crazy steering ratio makes this precision move a piece of cake. If one of my boys is with me, they always think I am going to clip the Hyundai or hit the garage door or the bush, but I could do this at 20 mph and it would still be easy. When I work from home, if I take a break, I find myself going to the CT to listen to music and play Sudoku for 20 minutes. I think riding in the truck at night is like riding in a night club. Especially if I am blaring EDM or techno from a Tune-In station.
That user experience won't be replicated in the form factor of a full-size pick-up again. And I think Tesla knows it. If Elon can stay in his lane post-DOGE, the sales will slowly turn-up (or fastly turn up if FSD Unsupervised launches soon). The machine that builds the machine is a sunk cost. I do not think they will move on from this unicorn vehicle.

 

[RustyLopez]

Ok I am skipping the stores from our house to 35 miles away and going that story to get it. Be back in an hour.

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I’m glad I’m not the only one who does this.

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