Cybertruck Demand: How many will sell in Q4?

[CyberGus]

Tesla sold about 8,000 Cybertrucks in Q2, and 16,000 Cybertrucks in Q3. Given that many are speculating about demand, what do you believe will be the final tally for this quarter? Place your bets now!

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[YDR37]

Tesla sold about 8,000 Cybertrucks in Q2, and 16,000 Cybertrucks in Q3.

Questions have been raised about that 16,000 number. It comes from the quarterly KBB EV Report. The number in that report was 16,692 Cybertruck sales in the US for 3Q 2024.

The KBB number is only an estimate, because Tesla doesn’t provide exact numbers for any of their models. Tesla only provides two numbers: for Model 3 and Model Y combined, and for “other models” combined. The “other models” category includes the Model S and Model X, as well as the Cybertruck.

For 3Q 2024, Tesla reported 22,915 deliveries of “other models” worldwide. KBB estimated that 16,692 of those were Cybertruck sales in the US. But if that’s true, it doesn't leave much space for the Model S and Model X.

KBB’s number implies that there were only 6,223 worldwide sales of Models S/X combined during 3Q 2024. For comparison, Tesla reported 15,985 worldwide sales of Models S/X combined in 3Q 2023 (there were no Cybertrucks at that time).

So KBB’s numbers imply that Model S/X sales in 3Q 2024 collapsed by about 61% relative to 3Q 2023. They also imply that Tesla sold 2.7 Cybertrucks for every Model S/X. Both of those seem unlikely.

Another well-known Tesla analyst, Troy Teslike, has a lower estimate for 3Q 2024 Cybertruck sales, at 12,709. This leaves room for 10,206 worldwide sales of Models S/X combined, which is still down from 3Q 2023, but only by about 36%. It would also imply that Tesla sold around 1.25 Cybertrucks for every Model S/X. This seems like a more reasonable ratio, given that the Models S/X were available worldwide in 3Q 2024, while the Cybertruck was only available in the US.

 

[CarMan ElecTruck]

I will hopefully vouch for at least one..

?‍

 

[SCTesla]

Questions have been raised about that 16,000 number. It comes from the quarterly KBB EV Report. The number in that report was 16,692 Cybertruck sales in the US for 3Q 2024.

The KBB number is only an estimate, because Tesla doesn’t provide exact numbers for any of their models. Tesla only provides two numbers: for Model 3 and Model Y combined, and for “other models” combined. The “other models” category includes the Model S and Model X, as well as the Cybertruck.

For 3Q 2024, Tesla reported 22,915 deliveries of “other models” worldwide. KBB estimated that 16,692 of those were Cybertruck sales in the US. But if that’s true, it doesn't leave much space for the Model S and Model X.

KBB’s number implies that there were only 6,223 worldwide sales of Models S/X combined during 3Q 2024. For comparison, Tesla reported 15,985 worldwide sales of Models S/X combined in 3Q 2023 (there were no Cybertrucks at that time).

So KBB’s numbers imply that Model S/X sales in 3Q 2024 collapsed by about 61% relative to 3Q 2023. They also imply that Tesla sold 2.7 Cybertrucks for every Model S/X. Both of those seem unlikely.

Another well-known Tesla analyst, Troy Teslike, has a lower estimate for 3Q 2024 Cybertruck sales, at 12,709. This implies 10,206 worldwide sale sof Models S/X combined, which is still down from 3Q 2023, but only by about 36%. It would also imply that Tesla sold around 1.25 Cybertrucks for every Model S/X.

Troy is and always has been the most accurate with numbers in regards to Tesla. He's not always 100%, but he's close.

 

[YDR37]

Troy is and always has been the most accurate with numbers in regards to Tesla. He's not always 100%, but he's close.

Yeah he's good. According to Troy, KBB (= Cox) overestimated Foundation Series sales and therefore underestimated Model S/X sales:

Cox Automotive estimates 16,692 Cybertruck sales in Q3. They assumed that Tesla delivered all Cybertrucks they produced. That's not the case because Tesla ran out of Foundation Series buyers and had a lot of unsold Cybertrucks at the end of Q3. That's a good thing for Q4 because it will help with Q4 deliveries.

Because Cox Automotive's Cybertruck number is too high, they had to reduce their Model S/X sales number too much. Tesla releases total deliveries of all three models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck). So, if the estimate for Cybertruck is too high, you have to reduce the estimate for Model S/X to remain below Tesla's total.

Troy's interpretation would be consistent with recent reports that Foundation Series Cybertrucks are still available in the US, if you look hard enough.

 

[CyberGus]

Questions have been raised about that 16,000 number. It comes from the quarterly KBB EV Report. The number in that report was 16,692 Cybertruck sales in the US for 3Q 2024.

It's true that we're all guessing, I posted the 8k and 16k figures as estimates. Of course, we will be guessing at the Q4 numbers, too.

 

[HaulingAss]

Yeah he's good. According to Troy, KBB (= Cox) overestimated Foundation Series sales and therefore underestimated Model S/X sales:

Troy's interpretation would be consistent with recent reports that Foundation Series Cybertrucks are still available in the US, if you look hard enough.

They are not available to me in Washington State! I've heard there are 3 or 4 FS Cybertrucks available in Georgia, but that doesn't do someone in another area of the country any good. Plus, they still have the $20K premium attached to them when we know it's worth ~$5K less than that.

 

[Jose99n2000]

Tesla sold about 8,000 Cybertrucks in Q2, and 16,000 Cybertrucks in Q3. Given that many are speculating about demand, what do you believe will be the final tally for this quarter? Place your bets now!

If they already went through their 1.5 million reservation list and only got less than 16k that’s a price point problem! At this rate they should just refund everyone their $100 or lower the price by $20k.

 

[CyberGus]

The group is evenly split between an increase in sales, and a decrease. Good job on the nice bell-curve distribution!

The poll closes in 9 days, so no changing your vote after the quarter ends

 

[sys700]

Any idea on how many AWD vs. Cyberbeast were sold in Q3? Q4? 2024?

 

[Mini2nut]

Why are people purchasing 2024 CT's when 2025 is right around the corner?

 

[canyoncarver]

Why are people purchasing 2024 CT's when 2025 is right around the corner?

The only reason to prefer a 2025 is that it might have slightly better resale based on model year number if you re-sell it quickly, like in 2-3 years.

Functionally it's going to be identical to 2024s currently being produced since Tesla almost never adds specific new things during model year "switchovers" like legacy automakers do.

 

[Daryoon]

If one waited this long for the $80k truck. I would wait a little longer to determine if the truck will qualify for the fed credit.

 

[canyoncarver]

If one waited this long for the $80k truck. I would wait a little longer to determine if the truck will qualify for the fed credit.

My understanding is that CT will not get the new cells with the domestically sourced components until middle of next year, so that's likely the earliest it would qualify for the tax credit.

If you lease the CT (which I am doing to lock in the residual value of the truck) then you get the $7500 immediately in the form of down payment on the depreciation (rent charge) on the truck.

 

[YDR37]

Any idea on how many AWD vs. Cyberbeast were sold in Q3? Q4? 2024?

Tesla does not release those numbers. In fact, Tesla will not even release the total numbers of Cybertrucks sold, much less provide a detailed breakdown of AWD vs CyberBeast.

However, Troy Teslike makes estimates based on review of publicly available VIN data. His numbers:

4Q 2023: 103 AWD, 3 CB
1Q 2024: 1,382 AWD, 269 CB
2Q 2024: 6,261 AWD, 1,565 CB
3Q 2024: 7,486 AWD, 5,223 CB

Large number of CBs in 3Q 2024. Troy suspects that Tesla deliberately pushed CB sales into 3Q to improve profitability, and that CB sales will fall in 4Q.

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