Latest From Musk: Production Cybertruck almost exactly same but better. No door handles. 4 wheel steering. Self opening doors.

[tidmutt]

OPINION:
I realize this will be an unpopular opinion, but I wouldn't use this option even it was available. Here's why:
1. I want my car charged when I need to use it, not discharged running my AC.
2. As batteries stand today, they do not have unlimited cycles. I'd prefer to isolate battery usage to miles since that's what they're optimized for. My home can have it's own batteries.
3. I can get a much better price on home battery backups per kWh by just buying batteries. When they're wrapped up in a car, I'd be paying quite the premium in the long term to run my house (or anyone else's!!) with my car. A 62 kWh car is around $45k, OR I could just get 62 kWh added to my refi for about $25k. I'd rather brutally cycle the cheaper ones WITHOUT the car premium.

Cheers!

I think there are various posts including my own that explain that there would be limits on battery charge used and how frequently. So I could say I want to guarantee my car will have 80% charge by 7am in the morning... the utility could use 10% if my battery, but resume charging at 6am to ensure I have 80%. With sufficiently large numbers of EVs this can work really well. Or imagine getting home in the evening, power consumption is up because everyone is home cooking dinner, watching netflix etc. the EVs are pushing power out to the grid during this time, but then start charging later to ensure adequate charge. You can opt out of this if you wish, but you lose a credit on your utility bill. Just a quick thought about how it could work.

You also have to think really big on this one... Imagine 50 million EVs on the road in 2030 or whatever the number is. You don't need to power the entire grid from them, just use them to smooth out the bumps.

Eventually, as the numbers get really big you'd probably hardly notice. Maybe more so in smaller, more remote areas, but then those EVs might be a huge advantage in those locations.

Lastly, what is the cycle life of the 4680 cells? If the existing cells can last 500K miles without too much loss of range... is 10% of that (maybe less) a big deal? What if it's just a few percentage points? What if the 4680s can do 750K miles or 1M miles? Does it matter then?

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[JBee]

OPINION:
I realize this will be an unpopular opinion, but I wouldn't use this option even it was available. Here's why:
1. I want my car charged when I need to use it, not discharged running my AC.
2. As batteries stand today, they do not have unlimited cycles. I'd prefer to isolate battery usage to miles since that's what they're optimized for. My home can have it's own batteries.
3. I can get a much better price on home battery backups per kWh by just buying batteries. When they're wrapped up in a car, I'd be paying quite the premium in the long term to run my house (or anyone else's!!) with my car. A 62 kWh car is around $45k, OR I could just get 62 kWh added to my refi for about $25k. I'd rather brutally cycle the cheaper ones WITHOUT the car premium.

Cheers!

1. In my post I stated less than 15% cycle. That is unlikely to affect your day to day driving range. You can still choose when you want what SOC.
2. A million mile battery pack is 33000miles a year for 30 years. How far do you need to go and just how old will you be in the end?
3. What Crissa said, but its cheaper to buy a CT with the car included than the same capacity of batteries in Powerwalls. (SM CT is at least 100kWh for $39k)

 

[tmeyer3]

2. A million mile battery pack is 33000miles a year for 30 years. How far do you need to go and just how old will you be in the end?

Can't disagree any of those points! I just hope the value of home batteries/generation will take off a little better.

I'm not gonna hold my breath on a million mile battery that is still over 70% cap at that much cycling until I see it. But yeah, that'd be dope!!

 

[happy intruder]

what I'm worried about is the remake associated to Elon that the Cybertruck could flop....and he didn't care I think....thats got my attention

 

[Ogre]

Even better is that the property developer does not put in grid power saving you $10-15k on the property and that pays for your solar and storage on a passive home that uses less than 1kW continous, so you don't need to pay $30k for power you will just waste in a normal house. I paid $9k for 30Kw of offgrid inverters with 24kWh of battery, and got the panels from the gov for free.

IMO mandating homes which don't require air conditioning or heating where possible should be the first step.

Our home is about half-way there, we made some mistakes when we built it so we need a bit of heat in the winter, but we've been reasonably comfortably AC free since we built even with streaks of days in the high 90s and 100s.

Similarly, appliances should be a lot more efficient. Refrigerators are a big culprit. As a bonus, highly efficiency fridges keep food cooler longer when there is power loss.

Then many homes could be built with smaller solar setups and only sipping power from the grid rarely.

 

[JBee]

Ct TM 1,000,000miles / 500miles = 2000 cycles.

How far do you think we're away from 2000 cycles? We're pretty much there I think.

 

[Throwcomputer]

No argument here! Given that it generates a return it's a pretty easy sell. In fact, the mortgage holders should be jumping at this opportunity. Guaranteed revenue generating asset... in fact, there has to be a way to structure it so the homeowner doesn't even take on the debt, unless they want to I guess.

If the world worked logically we would be working on systems like this. Instead we'll get politics, corruption, bribes in the form of campaign donations, FUD, fear mongering about socialism and so on ad nauseum.

You don't in Florida. As far as i know, FPL pays for the install and keeps any extra generated power for themselves. You get the lower power bill from less draw from the grid in exchange.

Personally I'd rather be able to store and keep my own excess power.

 

[tmeyer3]

what I'm worried about is the remake associated to Elon that the Cybertruck could flop....and he didn't care I think....thats got my attention

Oh, he cares about the Cybertruck VERY much. He's putting a ton of effort into it.

Why would he defend himself against a click bait article when he's clearly got the reservation numbers and demand. The article he was responding is so laughable... I don't think you should expect a legit answer from him when he's responding in almost obvious sarcasm.

Haha follow him long enough and you'll see what I mean.

 

[tmeyer3]

Ct TM 1,000,000miles / 500miles = 2000 cycles.

How far do you think we're away from 2000 cycles? We're pretty much there I think.

OMG I hope! If only it was that straight forward ?

 

[JBee]

IMO mandating homes which don't require air conditioning or heating where possible should be the first step.

Our home is about half-way there, we made some mistakes when we built it so we need a bit of heat in the winter, but we've been reasonably comfortably AC free since we built even with streaks of days in the high 90s and 100s.

Similarly, appliances should be a lot more efficient. Refrigerators are a big culprit. As a bonus, highly efficiency fridges keep food cooler longer when there is power loss.

Then many homes could be built with smaller solar setups and only sipping power from the grid rarely.

Being connected to the grid won't be worth it. We already have "grid defection" occuring where the networks cannot make enough money to maintain the grid because people are flooding the network with solar. They are already introducing measures so that household solar have to pay the networks to give them their solar power!

Grid is also #1 cause for bushfires...time to get rid of it except for cities and industry.

 

[JBee]

OMG I hope! If only it was that straight forward ?

LFP already guarantee 2500 cycles at 80%. Get a chinese M3 otherwise.

(Remember this was for a 15% DOD cycle for grid support from parked CTs)

 

[Crissa]

We already have "grid defection" occuring where the networks cannot make enough money to maintain the grid because people are flooding the network with solar.

This is not true. It's FUD by astroturf groups.

Maybe. In some future. That might happen. But that time is not today.

https://www.realclearenergy.org/art..._are_what_power_consumers_deserve_785688.html

Utilities have been specifically buying power from more expensive sources and raising prices while taking profits instead of reinvesting it into the grid.

The wildfires are more of a problem in that our PUD was blind to future risks. Our grid was not built for the weather we had in the last decade. 50mph winds used to be a ten year storm and 10% humidity was unheard of... Happening together? Regularly? Of course not.

-Crissa

 

[tmeyer3]

Being connected to the grid won't be worth it. We already have "grid defection" occuring where the networks cannot make enough money to maintain the grid because people are flooding the network with solar. They are already introducing measures so that household solar have to pay the networks to give them their solar power!

Grid is also #1 cause for bushfires...time to get rid of it except for cities and industry.

While a tad aggressive, haha, you're not completely wrong! Not completely right either.
With modern technology, there's no reason a home can't be built to sustain itself for much less than it costs to run lines to it. This goes for gas lines too.
Gas is cheap, but running copper gas lines IS NOT. It's all invisibly added to mortgage costs.

Grid should remain though, but for distribution rather than delivery. A big load balancer instead of a delivery system.

 

[JBee]

This is not true. It's FUD by astroturf groups.

Maybe. In some future. That might happen. But that time is not today.

https://www.realclearenergy.org/art..._are_what_power_consumers_deserve_785688.html

Utilities have been specifically buying power from more expensive sources and raising prices while taking profits instead of reinvesting it into the grid.

The wildfires are more of a problem in that our PUD was blind to future risks. Our grid was not built for the weather we had in the last decade. 50mph winds used to be a ten year storm and 10% humidity was unheard of... Happening together? Regularly? Of course not.

-Crissa

Lol. No group involved. Just fact.

Grid defection happens as soon as you install solar on your roof and are still connected to the grid. Its because your "load" defects from the grid to your solar instead, meaning the network and generators can't sell you anything except higher service charges. This was a major concern back in 2008 when I was part of the FIT workgroup. Its a downwards spiralling feedback loop.

Re paying to export hosehold solar to grid:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100098668

 

[JBee]

While a tad aggressive, haha, you're not completely wrong! Not completely right either.
With modern technology, there's no reason a home can't be built to sustain itself for much less than it costs to run lines to it. This goes for gas lines too.
Gas is cheap, but running copper gas lines IS NOT. It's all invisibly added to mortgage costs.

Grid should remain though, but for distribution rather than delivery. A big load balancer instead of a delivery system.

At some point energy storage will be so embedded the grid will be mostly redundant.

Have a look at powertools, notebooks, phones, evs. How do you make the grid or anything wireless? Embedded storage. Imagine you go shopping and take a weeks worth of power back from the supermarket SC along with your groceries.

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