Cybertruck reservation order number -- how to tell your place in line

[Deleted member 12560]

Hey all. Just found his site and joined up. I registered during the reveal and in the ~98k positions. I knew about the reservation tracker and when I first found it, it reported that I was in the 11/2021 group. Now it says 11/2022. I wonder if I can request to pick mine up from GigaTexas and drive it back home?

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[Blue flash]

Maybe we can all get together to drown our sorrows if the U.K. is excluded, the good new is we will have £100 each to put behind the bar.

Let look on the bright side it should have all the latest gear .

 

[John K]

YOUR CYBERTRUCK Tri Motor AWD Full Self-Driving Capability ORDER NUMBER RN112744948 The calculator says I’m roughly 700-800? Don’t know how accurate that is

Do you know what instant envy looks like?
(Awesome and happy you have such a good placement)

 

[Jasonhc73]

RN115384529

 

[Blue flash]

Hi guy and girls
as a ture Englishman I am used to queuing up to wait my tune but I hate peoples who jump the queue
I Order my cybertruck on 20/11/19 #RH 113020736. After seeing supercar blondy online and said to wife just popping out to the shops were my Tesla dealer is and ordered the dream , a new out of this world truck and expected to take the vehicle in early 2022
But Can anyone make out the real number system , as some people with a higher order number have said that they’re in hundreds and in-line to get before Christmas 2021 !!! .i am confuse in my head look as my number put me in 3 million before me ,
Confused or what Help .

 

[Ogre]

Hi guy and girls
as a ture Englishman I am used to queuing up to wait my tune but I hate peoples who jump the queue
I Order my cybertruck on 20/11/19 #RH 112744948 . After seeing supercar blondy online and said to wife just popping out to the shops were my Tesla dealer is and ordered the dream , a new out of this world truck and expected to take the vehicle in early 2022
But Can anyone make out the real number system , as some people with a higher order number have said that they’re in hundreds and in-line to get before Christmas 2021 !!! .i am confuse in my head look as my number put me in 3 million before me ,
Confused or what Help .

The numbers are not a reliable indicator. The higher the number, the less good an indicator it is. It’s not a “Cybertruck” reservation number, its a Tesla wide number.

If you are in the 100s of thousands or less, the number is likely fairly reliable. In the millions? You are mixed in with a bunch of Model Y and Model 3 sales.

It’s also not a perfect indicator that you will be served before the guy with a higher number. If you ordered the single motor truck, you are likely getting pushed way back in the queue. They also ship based on region so it’s likely certain areas get tapped earlier.

Production hasn’t started So we don’t even know the run rate. If you number is 3 million higher than someone else’s… it’s likely you won’t see your truck until 2023 at the earliest. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they are still shipping pre-orders in 2025.

 

[Luftpilot]

Wow...getting excited...only 2 more years to go :-(

 

[Blue flash]

The numbers are not a reliable indicator. The higher the number, the less good an indicator it is. It’s not a “Cybertruck” reservation number, its a Tesla wide number.

If you are in the 100s of thousands or less, the number is likely fairly reliable. In the millions? You are mixed in with a bunch of Model Y and Model 3 sales.

It’s also not a perfect indicator that you will be served before the guy with a higher number. If you ordered the single motor truck, you are likely getting pushed way back in the queue. They also ship based on region so it’s likely certain areas get tapped earlier.

Production hasn’t started So we don’t even know the run rate. If you number is 3 million higher than someone else’s… it’s likely you won’t see your truck until 2023 at the earliest. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they are still shipping pre-orders in 2025.

Hope for

The numbers are not a reliable indicator. The higher the number, the less good an indicator it is. It’s not a “Cybertruck” reservation number, its a Tesla wide number.

If you are in the 100s of thousands or less, the number is likely fairly reliable. In the millions? You are mixed in with a bunch of Model Y and Model 3 sales.

It’s also not a perfect indicator that you will be served before the guy with a higher number. If you ordered the single motor truck, you are likely getting pushed way back in the queue. They also ship based on region so it’s likely certain areas get tapped earlier.

Production hasn’t started So we don’t even know the run rate. If you number is 3 million higher than someone else’s… it’s likely you won’t see your truck until 2023 at the earliest. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they are still shipping pre-orders in 2025.

[Hope for me yet as I order a tri motor AWD so may knock off a year or two of waiting time .

 

[TheJollyRobert]

Now that we've got Tesla confirmation that it's going to be the end of '22 when the first ones roll off the line, and '23 when true production is going... is someone going to adjust the spreadsheet to start with the first CTs in Dec '22 (so that we get a better idea of true timing - or at least true as of this week)?

Thanks!

 

[Crissa]

Now that we've got Tesla confirmation that it's going to be the end of '22 when the first ones roll off the line...

'Late (year)' encompasses 'end of (year)' but it does not mean 'end of (year)' because it can also mean August.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Now that we've got Tesla confirmation that it's going to be the end of '22 when the first ones roll off the line, and '23 when true production is going... is someone going to adjust the spreadsheet to start with the first CTs in Dec '22 (so that we get a better idea of true timing - or at least true as of this week)?

Thanks!

As @Crissa suggests, we really don't have much of an official date right now.

Maybe updating the spreadsheet to say Launch + XX Months instead would make sense. Otherwise we're playing a bit of whack-a-mole.

You can sort-of figure it out yourself. Figure for the first 3 months 750 trucks/ week, the next 6 months, 1500 trucks/ week, then after that 5,000 trucks per week. We should see about 10,000 in the first quarter after launch, 20,000 - 30,000 per quarter for the next two, then sometime between 6-9 months into the process the full spigot should open up and it'll hit a full 60,000 - 75,000 per quarter.

So something like this:

Quarters From Launch	Shipped During Quarter	Pessimistic Total Shipped	Optimistic Total Shipped
1	< 10,000​	6,000​	10,000​
2	20,000 - 30,000​	26,000​	40,000​
3	20,000 - 30,000​	46,000​	70,000​
4	60,000 - 75,000​	106,000​	145,000​
5	60,000 - 75,000​	166,000​	220,000​
6	60,000 - 75,000​	226,000​	295,000​
7	60,000 - 75,000​	286,000​	370,000​
8	60,000 - 75,000​	346,000​	445,000​

There are too many variables to be super precise here. Any estimate the spreadsheet does is going to be piled with assumptions.

EDIT: I cleaned up the format a lot and fixed a bunch of math errors (I hope).

 

[Crissa]

Thirteen weeks in a quarter, they won't release until they can make 1k/week at least.

We also don't know what hiccups the ramp will have.

But I'd say:

Quarter	Output	Total
1st	13k	13k
2nd	26k	39k
3rd	39k	78k
4th	52k	130k
5th	65k	175k

-Crissa

 

[ACV1081]

Thirteen weeks in a quarter, they won't release until they can make 1k/week at least.

We also don't know what hiccups the ramp will have.

But I'd say:

Quarter	Output	Total
1st	13k	13k
2nd	26k	39k
3rd	39k	78k
4th	52k	130k
5th	65k	175k

-Crissa

I’m pretty excited regardless.

 

[Ogre]

I’m pretty excited regardless.

IOWA? Oo, that's a bummer, I've heard Tesla delivers to Iowa last.



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(Or maybe I'm just a little Jely)

 

[ACV1081]

IOWA? Oo, that's a bummer, I've heard Tesla delivers to Iowa last.
Haha, we’ve got 4 in total coming here all pretty close to that range… maybe we can go pick them up in Austin ?


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(Or maybe I'm just a little Jely)

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