ACV1081

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IOWA? Oo, that's a bummer, I've heard Tesla delivers to Iowa last.
Haha, we’ve got 4 in total coming here all pretty close to that range… maybe we can go pick them up in Austin 😎


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(Or maybe I'm just a little Jely)
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Ogre

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This is an updated version of the above post (I fixed it up there too because it was confusing and had math errors).

Quarters From LaunchShipped During QuarterPessimistic Total ShippedOptimistic Total Shipped
1
< 10,000​
6,000
10,000
2
20,000 - 30,000​
26,000
40,000
3
20,000 - 30,000​
46,000
70,000
4
60,000 - 75,000​
106,000
145,000
5
60,000 - 75,000​
166,000
220,000
6
60,000 - 75,000​
226,000
295,000
7
60,000 - 75,000​
286,000
370,000
8
60,000 - 75,000​
346,000
445,000

@Crissa and I have slightly different assumptions but looks like we're in the same ballpark. And... my optimistic prediction isn't that optimistic.

If deliveries start in Q4 2022, and your RN is below 150,000 you have a good chance of getting your truck sometime in 2023.

If your reservation is out more than 500,000 you can extrapolate, but don't give up hope entirely. There are cancellations, out-of-country deliveries, a lot of vagaries in the RN system, and most important, given the huge backlog, the possibility that Tesla will be exceed 75,000 trucks per quarter.
 

SONNYDUT

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My RN112754724. I thought 11274410 minus my number would give me my position in line? The reservation spreadsheet show I was in 10k placement (incorrect position?) but there is and error so I am now according to the the spreadsheet, my position is pushed to 124k position (correct position?). I order mine 5 minutes after the unveiling. How was this determined. Can anyone please explain.
 

Crissa

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My RN112754724. I thought 11274410 minus my number would give me my position in line?
Where did you get that second number?

Tesla reservation numbers are shared amongst all their products. So if you just minus the first Cybertruck reservation, you get a count of all the orders - cars, trucks, batteries, solar - that generated a reservation number.

-Crissa
 

ecotrials

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Where did you get that second number?

Tesla reservation numbers are shared amongst all their products. So if you just minus the first Cybertruck reservation, you get a count of all the orders - cars, trucks, batteries, solar - that generated a reservation number.

-Crissa
From the first page of this thread, although he dropped the last zero (should be 112744100). Using the correct number I get 10624, so pretty close to the front of the line.
As the Austin's say, "good on ya mate".
 
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