4680 Battery Production Progress

[rr6013]

would you accept CT with 2170 batteries

4680 is a design specification. Its dimensions for fitment into CT structural battery pack. Why would Tesla go to all the effort to make castings, cost savings and improvements structurally then not use them?

Chemistry inside 4680 is Tesla’s business, proprietary, secret and subject to change. This is evident by Panasonic and CATL ramping 4680 cells; each with their separate chemistries.

We all will accept whatever chemistry is inside the 4680 can; your mileage may vary(YMMV).

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[Ogre]

I think worst case is they keep the 4680 cell, but have to lose the dry cell technology that would require some pretty big changes in their production line and eliminate a big chunk of their estimated cost savings.

 

[fritter63]

One of the big holdups with the 4680 production was with a phase of production called calendaring.

thanks, didn’t remember that term,
I’d have called it “pancaking “ ?

 

[swengl]

They are definitely building 4680 cells in Fremont now. It's funny how folks forget about the battery "skunk" labs at Kato. They have been making viable 4680 cells, but just not at the yield they really want to go heavy production with. If someone knew how many viable cells Kato Rd could produce, then we could start to provide an educated guess as to when they will have enough to start production. With the other battery partners gearing up, as well, Tesla should have a multi-pronged 4680 supply plan that doesn't solely rely on their ability to produce them (at least, at first).

 

[Ogre]

They are definitely building 4680 cells in Fremont now. It's funny how folks forget about the battery "skunk" labs at Kato. They have been making viable 4680 cells, but just not at the yield they really want to go heavy production with. If someone knew how many viable cells Kato Rd could produce, then we could start to provide an educated guess as to when they will have enough to start production. With the other battery partners gearing up, as well, Tesla should have a multi-pronged 4680 supply plan that doesn't solely rely on their ability to produce them (at least, at first).

They've been producing them in small scale there for some time. Just not enough to produce 1000s of CT/ week or even 1000s of MY/ week. (Or apparently not even enough for 100s of Model S Plaid+/ week)

They did a big hiring spree there in Fremont recently for various "cell production" positions which seems like good news to me.

 

[Ogre]

Boom.

In the shareholders meeting Musk confirmed 4680 production is starting in Fremont with 10GB capacity. Enough to start Model Y production in Texas with the new cells.

Huge Huge Huge relief. Texas and Berlin 4680 production should follow as fast as they can finish the facilities.

This is me in Rockville park... the bomb just dropped in Fremont.

 

[Ogre]

Also notable:

Musk confirmed 2 chemistries for batteries going forward. Iron (aka LFP) and Nickel. Nickel is for Long Range vehicles, Iron for shorter range. Not clear where the cutoff is. Presumably that means tri-motor is definitely going to be Nickel. Maybe Dual and Single will be Iron? Wasn't clean on that.

 

[JBee]

Also notable:

Musk confirmed 2 chemistries for batteries going forward. Iron (aka LFP) and Nickel. Nickel is for Long Range vehicles, Iron for shorter range. Not clear where the cutoff is. Presumably that means tri-motor is definitely going to be Nickel. Maybe Dual and Single will be Iron? Wasn't clean on that.

Would make sense.
But I'm less optimistic about CT delivery times now because of 4680 production. Wanted to go home to Oz via the US next year...might have to grab a MY instead to bridge the gap.

 

[Ogre]

Would make sense.
But I'm less optimistic about CT delivery times now because of 4680 production. Wanted to go home to Oz via the US next year...might have to grab a MY instead to bridge the gap.

Ouch. Yeah timing is not unexpected, but that doesn't make it easier if you have complicated logistics. Can you pick up your truck here and export it to Oz yourself?

 

[Crissa]

They already have Model Y in Australia, ahead of the UK.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Ouch. Yeah timing is not unexpected, but that doesn't make it easier if you have complicated logistics. Can you pick up your truck here and export it to Oz yourself?

Plan was to move some more business to US and stay a few months every year building it up there. So we need the vehicles in US not just in Oz. CT was the plan for both places.

MY is too expensive (luxury tax) and small for Oz and doesn't have usable range or payload for what I need there. Currently there's one SC (the loneliest in the world) on the west coast and thats 400miles away, the next one is 1500 away... There's a few more being built now, but even then the closest will still be 340miles away. Theres one 50kW charger 150miles out which would work in a pinch but adds too much time, and we're unlikely to see a SC in inbetween on that 340m stretch because of a lack of grid capacity. The goal was to drive between farms and charge from our own solar there with a few TMs for the WISP business, that is all solar powered as well.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Also notable:

Musk confirmed 2 chemistries for batteries going forward. Iron (aka LFP) and Nickel. Nickel is for Long Range vehicles, Iron for shorter range. Not clear where the cutoff is. Presumably that means tri-motor is definitely going to be Nickel. Maybe Dual and Single will be Iron? Wasn't clean on that.

From battery day he said the CT (he didn’t specify a trim so assume all trims) would use nickel cells. So until he says otherwise that is my expectation.

 

[jerhenderson]

I would be excited if it was more than someone saying "70-80% yield" and no backup from Tesla on it. In fact, I think the only thing I would believe, and then get excited about, would be seeing a 4680-based vehicle on the road, even a test car, or if Elon actually said "here is one" or "the factory will be operational in November" or some such. I try not to get excited over something that doesn't exist, but I do worry ...

he did say the Austin MY will be 4680 powered.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

he did say the Austin MY will be 4680 powered.

Did he say when they will begin producing Austin Model Ys? I missed some of the shareholders meeting yesterday.

 

[Ogre]

Did he say when they will begin producing Austin Model Ys? I missed some of the shareholders meeting yesterday.

By end of year.

There was definitely not a ton of definiteness to the Model Y/ 4680 stuff though. It sounded like they were planning on ramping with 4680 and that they were planning on starting production by year end in Austin. But it wasn’t clear if there would be some with 2170s or they would start right off with 4680s. I kind of assumed it but a few people thought it was less clear.

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