Elon Musk replies to a Tweet about Pricing on the Cybertruck

[Ogre]

And then things like their front and rear motor/turning design being repeated to reduce total unique parts.

Really curious if they end up doing this. Seems like the space would be different enough they would need a different design.

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[CyberCFP]

Here's my guess:

Affordable version:
$60k + FSD
Dual motor
300 mile range
Single screen
Normal tonneau
No ramp
Fixed suspension
FW steering

Mars Rover Version:
$120k + FSD
Quad motor
500+ mile range
Dash, center and rear screen
Solar tonneau
In built ramp
Air suspension
4W steering

Tesla has dropped trims in the past and based on that trend and what we're seeing I wouldn't be surprised if there's a "bare bones work truck" version and a "super king ranch lariat trd 4x4x16 ultra duty vegan meat chewing" version to compete with the luxury suburban truck market.

That would be incredibly disappointing.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

After the Rivian Price bump someone got Musk to reply about Cybertruck pricing a bit.



Not entirely sure what this means. Seems like a bit of a dodge to me.

It’s the usual Musk Rorschach test for the reader. Everyone will read into it what they want.

"It’s the usual Musk Rorschach test for the reader"

How true. He rarely speaks in concrete terms. Given that he runs an aerospace company and is said to be deep into engineering details, I always assume that this vague BS is intentional. I guess it all means that he doesn't know what the price will be, yet, but that he believes that Tesla is better able to offer a reasonable price than anyone else.

 

[PK3]

The big issue with legacy manufacturers is they don't profit from the dale

Here's my guess:

Affordable version:
$60k + FSD
Dual motor
300 mile range
Single screen
Normal tonneau
No ramp
Fixed suspension
FW steering

Mars Rover Version:
$120k + FSD
Quad motor
500+ mile range
Dash, center and rear screen
Solar tonneau
In built ramp
Air suspension
4W steering

Tesla has dropped trims in the past and based on that trend and what we're seeing I wouldn't be surprised if there's a "bare bones work truck" version and a "super king ranch lariat trd 4x4x16 ultra duty vegan meat chewing" version to compete with the luxury suburban truck market.

Disagree if this was the options I think Elon would just delay it some more to get the costs in check or produce a single top end version under $100k for the 1 year or so then as scale works in Tesla's favor start bringing down the price, and maybe introduce some lower end models.

Ultimately I would think they would introduce a 4 motor version first with all the items but probably a 300mi range at around 70k. After producing like 250k or so (1 year later when battery supply is better) they might start selling an extended range one of 500mi at 90k. After 2 years into mass production, I think they will introduce a 2 motor 300mi one at 50k.

 

[PK3]

The big three will sell EVs as a loss leader. That's why the limited pre-orders. They also can't source more batteries.

Yes I agree the legacy will sell them at a loss, which is why they don't like EVs. They sell there main ICE cars mostly at cost, they make most of their money selling overpriced parts for there ICE vehicles and EVs will kill there current business model. They won't make as much selling maintenance parts to the dealerships since EVs have lower maintenance. They will have to raise there car prices for EVs much more to keep profits up.

 

[Diehard]

I think the cost to build CT only sets the floor for how low it can be. I believe the actual price will be set by what people are willing to pay, Tesla's appetite for Margin, what other trucks (ICE and BEV) are selling for and the individuals fixation with CT. If I am correct on these, in today's market, it is hard to imagine original prices materialize. What market will be like a couple of years from now? your guess is probably better than mine.

 

[Crissa]

Why is it easy to imagine Tesla reneging on prices when they've never done that in their history?

-Crissa

 

[empiredown]

^^^ Because COVID and on-going supply chain issues. Neither of those have happened in modern times and manifested themselves after the initial price projections of the CT. The world is a different place now. And then there is this whole Russia (and China) vs 'The West' thing on-going...

And as for the 'Rorsach Conjecture'... He's on the spectrum. Don't expect him to think or provide information the same way you do. It is very possible he gave the absolute best answer he felt he could and isn't playing games at all.

SS

 

[DarinCT]

^^^ Because COVID and on-going supply chain issues. Neither of those have happened in modern times and manifested themselves after the initial price projections of the CT. The world is a different place now. And then there is this whole Russia (and China) vs 'The West' thing on-going...

And as for the 'Rorsach Conjecture'... He's on the spectrum. Don't expect him to think or provide information the same way you do. It is very possible he gave the absolute best answer he felt he could and isn't playing games at all.

SS

Sure, the world is different but you side-stepped Crissa's point. Musk has never reneged on pricing before. I think you're asserting that there are things outside Musk's control e.g. supply chain issues that would suggest the input costs make it prohibitive to keep the prices original (or close). The CT isn't out yet, supply issues can, are, and will be mitigated. Besides, what supply chain issues would there actually be? The global chip shortage is the only one I know of.

Ditto for COVID, inflation, and everything else. Just because a consumer currently takes it on the nose - we're trying to buy a used car currently, ugh! - doesn't mean a particular manufacture does for a completely new kind of car. In other words, I'm betting on Tesla instead of the world's woes.

 

[Ogre]

^^^ Because COVID and on-going supply chain issues. Neither of those have happened in modern times and manifested themselves after the initial price projections of the CT. The world is a different place now. And then there is this whole Russia (and China) vs 'The West' thing on-going...

Just releasing a truck with much higher price would be easy. Musk has said they are not doing the easy thing. They are doing the incredibly difficult thing, and making the truck affordable.

What exactly do you think Musk means when he said they are making the truck “Affordable” here?

That’s what doesn’t jive with me. He’s repeated this phrase. It was also an important part of the launch. When people talk about huge price increases and dropping tentpole features it’s hard to take it serious when the only messaging from Musk and Tesla has been that the truck pricing will be competitive with ICE.

The pitch from day 1 and every day since has been a truck which is price competitive with ICE but better. Not “Much more expensive than ICE and comparable”.

The pitch has always been the Cybertruck versus ICE trucks.

 

[empiredown]

I guess we'll see... I have long said they can't raise their prices too much because they would rather sell a million trucks for x than 100,000 trucks at 2x... And no, I didn't side step the issue. EVERYTHING is connected now and wishing something away doesn't make it go away. Will Tesla and the vast majority of us survive all this? Undoubtedly. But for you all to pin your hopes to the past and not take into account the shift that has occurred is... well, it's sad. There is this thing called reality we all have to reside in outside the internet. The reality is the CT is made out of things, things that cost more now, things that cost more to produce now, and things that cost more to transport now. Workers and keeping workers working also costs more now. How are those costs going to be offset? Out of Musk's pocket? Nah...

Musk has never reneged on pricing before, which I have also pointed out previously, because he didn't have to. Time is going to tell who is right and what the price is in the end... All of this is conjecture at this point, outside of Tesla holdings, and Musk certainly didn't (whether inadvertently or purposefully) provide any concrete data that the majority of us can understand as to what pricing will be when these vehicles launch.

Good luck on your vehicle purchase. You're going to need it...

SS

 

[Crissa]

I'll repeat:

Tesla's gross margin per car - how much profit came from each sold - increased 10% last year.

That's 10% over the costs of supply chain, pandemic, and inflation. That's a year they weren't able to sell a quarter as many of their luxury models.

Right now Tesla is maxed in production, so why wouldn't they take some profit? But that doesn't mean they'll go back on their word for their target prices.

In fact, much of the inflation people have been complaining about is straight up profit taking by corporations. Corporate profits went down in 2020, sure, but in 2021 they made up the difference, climbed as much as they did in 2019, and then climbed more atop that.

You may not like the messenger, but check those facts.




Elon isn't Starbucks.

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

Why is it easy to imagine Tesla reneging on prices when they've never done that in their history?

-Crissa

First let me say the only reason I still have a reservation is that I hope and wish you are correct and still believe there is a chance you are. But I think that chance is less than 50%.

I think the philosophical difference we have here is that you think of the pricing we got as a commitment. I think of it as a goal Tesla had. Not all goals are achieved and like stock market past performance does not guarantee future outcome. If I remember correctly, when the pricing were taken off the website, there were already close to 2 million reservations. If Tesla can get $20K-$30K more for even half of those and decide not to just so they can meet our expectation, that is a high price for integrity. Looking at Rivian forum, you can see a lot of people that looked at a business as their personal friend and feel mighty disappointed right now.

I think Tesla is shooting for affordable CTs because that is the best way to take over the truck market and to make an environmental impact but they will start with the high margin CTs first. Once they run out of demand for those, they will get to high volume low price CTs. The thing is we don't seem to run out of wealthy people that can and will pay for expensive trucks.

Tesla is still changing the truck. If there is no single motor when they go to production, you can not hold them to the promise of a $40K truck. In the same way, if the specs of the truck has changed for other trims, they really are not the same trucks so they legitimately can price them differently. That way they have not broken with tradition. They just give a different price for a different truck.

All that said, I keep my fingers crossed that Tesla's ability to build the truck at lower cost, does translate to the lower price for customers. I remain hopeful but not emotionally invested.

 

[Crissa]

I don't think of it as a promise. Prices change. They were a target.

But past performance is predictive of behavior. And Tesla has always lowered prices to get more sold - and made its reservation promises.

Do I think the single-motor version will be canceled? Very likely, unless Tesla beat Elon-time with batteries. Which pretty much never happens. Demand is too high.

Do I think we'll see lower prices? No, again, demand is too high.

Do I think additional features and options will raise the price? Most likely. They've always offered overpriced wheels and performance levels to pad the bottom line.

Do I think they'll raise the price like they did with the Y, post-reservation list? Why would they? It won't change the backlog of orders.

-Crissa

PS: Do I think some profit-taking is bad? Heck no. That's why it's always more fun to sell things which are truly optional. Like toys. Because then if you price someone out of the market you're not causing them harm.

But I abhor scalpers. Getting in the way of transactions hurts both the maker and consumer.

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