40,000 Production this year prediction

[cvalue13]

Right, pre-orders do not equate to orders. Especially if the pricing or features (mainly range) change too much.

nor do gross pre-orders equate to pre-orders that can order: the gross pre-order list is global, and CT isn't selling outside North America anytime soon

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[BeastSlayer]

I wouldn’t say chicken and egg here.

If the truck is appealing, pre-order take will be high and new orders will flow in. If it is over-priced or the criticisms of the critics turn out to be a big issue, pre-orders will drop off fast and new orders will not appear. Or perhaps it’ll be somewhere in between.

Regardless, Tesla’s capacity is sort-of locked into units of 250k per year based on Gigapress capacity. Ramping up the first 250k and seeing how demand reacts makes a ton of sense.

There is a pattern on F150Lightning. There was excitement and anticipation for those who made the reservations.

Then huge drop off during productions and when reviews start coming in. Now, the even slightly used ones are all over the pre-owned market.

 

[cvalue13]

There is a pattern on F150Lightning. There was excitement and anticipation for those who made the reservations.

Then huge drop off during productions and when reviews start coming in. Now, the even slightly used ones are all over the pre-owned market.

this is such trash - you’re some sort of FUD plant

By far, drop in demand resulted from the combination MSRP raises, uncertainty around federal credits, a 3X of interest rates, all amid the used/trade-in price bubble bursting

go peddle this intellectually dishonest claptrap elsewhere

 

[Ogre]

There is a pattern on F150Lightning. There was excitement and anticipation for those who made the reservations.

Then huge drop off during productions and when reviews start coming in. Now, the even slightly used ones are all over the pre-owned market.

Rivian was similar.

I keep saying this. There is no “Electric Truck” market. There is a truck market. Prices start around $40,000 and go up to about $70,000. There are also a small number of trucks sold in the $70k+ range, but it is a small number. Definitely not 250,000.

I’ve been beating this drum for a long time, but this is why the Cybertruck **** Must **** be affordable. Once the shiny wears off, it has to compete price-wise against trucks.

When Musk talks about the Cybertruck being affordable, this is what he’s talking about. He’s not looking at how it competes with the Rivian or the Ford Lightning, he’s looking at how it competes with ICE trucks because within 6-12 months that’s what it’s going to be selling against.

 

[BeastSlayer]

Rivian was similar.

I keep saying this. There is no “Electric Truck” market. There is a truck market. Prices start around $40,000 and go up to about $70,000. There are also a small number of trucks sold in the $70k+ range, but it is a small number. Definitely not 250,000.

I’ve been beating this drum for a long time, but this is why the Cybertruck **** Must **** be affordable. Once the shiny wears off, it has to compete price-wise against trucks.

When Musk talks about the Cybertruck being affordable, this is what he’s talking about. He’s not looking at how it competes with the Rivian or the Ford Lightning, he’s looking at how it competes with ICE trucks because within 6-12 months that’s what it’s going to be selling against.

Agree with you completely.

Ford's mis-step was rushing their EV to be among those to be first-in-market but they turn out to be not ready for the big leagues tech-wise. Then Ford and their dealers got greedy pricing and markup-wise misinterpreting those reservations as real high demand.. Now they are nagging, the 6th time, to proceed with my order, their used units flooding the used-car lots and the online car traders --- and those who made the mistake had to keep applying salve in their butt-hurt and avoiding every possible way their wives nagging them to sell their new pricey lemon.

Some spent their remaining lifetime in this forum composing kilometric post to tell those who care to listen that the world outside of his F150 Lightning is hell trying to pull everyone else for company in his misery..

 

[cvalue13]

Some spent their remaining lifetime in this forum composing kilometric post to tell those who care to listen that the world outside of his F150 Lightning is hell trying to pull everyone else for company in his misery..

and others have done exactly the same, except barking for the opposite conclusions - but from the disadvantage of having never even owned a Lightning, and so absent any actual information other than that gleaned from YouTubers who themselves also cant or dont care to understand nuance.

i get it

you're obsessed with the notion that wives decide what cars men can purchase

and you're butt-hurt

and uninformed

basically, an automobile version of an incel

 

[BeastSlayer]

In my Pavlov's dog experiment.

It's automatic.

Though I'm little disappointed with the 25 minutes response turn-around.

 

[Ogre]

Agree with you completely.

Ford's mis-step was rushing their EV to be among those to be first-in-market but they turn out to be not ready for the big leagues tech-wise. Then Ford and their dealers got greedy pricing and markup-wise misinterpreting those reservations as real high demand.. Now they are nagging, the 6th time, to proceed with my order, their used units flooding the used-car lots and the online car traders --- and those who made the mistake had to keep applying salve in their butt-hurt and avoiding every possible way their wives nagging them to sell their new pricey lemon.

I’m not sure Ford releasing the Lightning when they did was a mistake. At current prices, it is certainly a very compromised/ overpriced design, but Ford learned a lot doing this. Think of it like Starship launch. Just getting it off the ground was a victory. People who got them at launch pricing, particularly the ~$43k worktruck price are pretty happy with them. They are not fully functional road-trip capable vehicles, but they had to start somewhere.

Lots of people paid too much for the top end Lightnings… and Ford lost a bunch of money per truck. But Ford got their toe in and next generation will be better.

Not rushing out to buy a Ford, but it’s starting to look like they might actually survive this if they don’t go broke first.

Some spent their remaining lifetime in this forum composing kilometric post to tell those who care to listen that the world outside of his F150 Lightning is hell trying to pull everyone else for company in his misery..

 

[BeastSlayer]

I’m not sure Ford releasing the Lightning when they did was a mistake. At current prices, it is certainly a very compromised/ overpriced design, but Ford learned a lot doing this. Think of it like Starship launch. Just getting it off the ground was a victory. People who got them at launch pricing, particularly the ~$43k worktruck price are pretty happy with them. They are not fully functional road-trip capable vehicles, but they had to start somewhere.

Lots of people paid too much for the top end Lightnings… and Ford lost a bunch of money per truck. But Ford got their toe in and next generation will be better.

Not rushing out to buy a Ford, but it’s starting to look like they might actually survive this if they don’t go broke first.

Contrary to the conspiracy theory being spread here with butt-hurt on being the first adapter, I have not given up by cancelling my reservations. I am hoping that their 2nd generation will be better.

Ford is busy patching the leaks with advisories telling weeping owners to do this, do that before driving, while on the road, turning off a/c, not using the heater, avoid too much uphill, drive only when ambient temperature is 70s to 80s...etc.

But yeah, I want my truck to be plug-and-play, err, start-and-go and I don't want to adjust to my truck for it to perform to manufacturer's specs -- and my expectations. If it, no-buy for me, no-sale for them.

 

[Ogre]

Contrary to the conspiracy theory being spread here with butt-hurt on being the first adapter, I have not given up by cancelling my reservations. I am hoping that their 2nd generation will be better.

Ford is busy patching the leaks with advisories telling weeping owners to do this, do that before driving, while on the road, turning off a/c, not using the heater, drive only when ambient temperature is 70s to 80s...etc.

But yeah, I want my truck to be start-and-go and I don't want to adjust to my truck for it to perform to manufacturer's specs -- and my expectations. If it, no-buy for me, no-sale for them.

I get you.

I think perhaps Ford should have put a “Beta” label on this generation.

Tesla’s big advantage has always been time. They started this when there was very little demand for EVs and they could make mistakes and learn how to get it right when volumes were low. Ford is trying to figure this stuff out with moderate volume vehicles which means they are losing a lot more money and a lot more people are impacted by their goofs.

There is no great way forward for Ford at this juncture. In 2021 when they launched the Lightning, all paths forward were bad. They didn’t make the perfect choice, but they weren’t paralyzed with indecision either which is good.

Compare where they are to GM or Ram though and it’s a different story. GM and Ram are going to end up going through many of the same issues Ford did… but they have to do it in a market where there is a 2nd generation Lightning and a Cybertruck to compete with.

 

[cvalue13]

I’m not sure Ford releasing the Lightning when they did was a mistake. At current prices, it is certainly a very compromised/ overpriced design, but Ford learned a lot doing this. Think of it like Starship launch. Just getting it off the ground was a victory. People who got them at launch pricing, particularly the ~$43k worktruck price are pretty happy with them. They are not fully functional road-trip capable vehicles, but they had to start somewhere.

Lots of people paid too much for the top end Lightnings… and Ford lost a bunch of money per truck. But Ford got their toe in and next generation will be better.

All this.

And to add the relative value compared to the alternative: waiting to have any BEV truck until after the TN factory is operational, first deliveries circa 2026 (assuming all goes ~according to ~plan).

For Ford, there's no reasonable questioning the rationale and value-swing between option A [Lightnings delivered in mid-2022] vs option B [no BEV F-series platform delivered until 2026]

Anyone who understands Ford's history knows what the "Lightning" nomenclature means: a temporary, low volume, R&D-fueling, and textbook loss-leader strategy vehicle.

Prior Lightning gens, for the limited periods offered, produced only ~5,000 units/year, all at a loss, and for MSRP's that were unobtainable for most. But Ford gained history-making records (e.g. world's fastest production pickup), paved the R&D towards more powerful standard production models, captured the imaginations of "truck people," and brought new buyers towards their standard line models.

Textbook loss-leader product development.

Lightning Gens I, II, III-SVT, and present:

Ford Lightning Production Numbers (1999-2004)

	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Black	1,601	1,596	1,908	1,198	1,036	843
Bright Red	1,533	1,405	1,722	1,086	735	648
Oxford White	866	928	1,170	294	606	428
Silver Metallic	N/A	1,037	1,581	1,018	N/A	618
True Blue	N/A	N/A	N/A	1,130	N/A	N/A
Dark Shadow Grey	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1,170	648
Sonic Blue	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	723	596
Total	4000	4966	6381	4726	4270	3781

 

[BeastSlayer]

You think Ford, being 100+ years in the business should have known better.

I remember buying their stocks when they introduced the aluminum version. I also thought that this would be a break-through since it will be a lot lighter and hence can haul more.

But then, the geniuses on the company forget to fortify the body such when owners and their workers on job sites started dropping tool boxes on the bed, they are saw holes and big dents on the its body.

 

[cvalue13]

I have not given up by cancelling my reservations. I am hoping that their 2nd generation will be better.

your Lightning reservation means nothing regarding the other truck Ford is producing in TN.

That future BEV is not a Lightning, and you're just continuing to demonstrate your lack of attention to detail or understanding.

 

[BeastSlayer]

your Lightning reservation means nothing regarding the other truck Ford is producing in TN.

That future BEV is not a Lightning, and you're just continuing to demonstrate your lack of attention to detail or understanding.

Yes, this 5-minute response time is a huge improvement.

If Ford cancel my reservations while waiting for their 2nd gen, it's their loss not mine, while you are still in a huge butt-hurt by being too unthinkingly eager.

 

[Rutrow]

People are terrible drivers, even most of the 87% who are better than average.

HaulingAss has been driving around Lake Wobegon

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