40,000 Production this year prediction

[cvalue13]

That was part of what was really impressive to me about the Semi video showing 500 miles of range fully loaded. They were basically all Freeway miles, which is way harder in EVs. Of course the Semi was driving around 55mph.

Curious by your post, I looked around, and found the semi tractor itself has a Cd of 0.36 - pretty good

and yes, driving 55mph is a key

in the US, the National Maximum Speed Law of 1973 established a national maximum speed limit of 55mph on all highways in order to conserve fuel in response to the oil crisis of that year. It was eventually repealed in 1987.

rule of thumb is that, depending on Cd and frontal area of a vehicle, for every 1mph over 55, drivers should expect to loose 1-2% of fuel economy

so the difference between 55 and 75 can be between 20-40%

Also a key reason why a lot of fleet vehicles are governed to 55ish.

and semi drivers I’m sure watch their OpEx

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[HaulingAss]

10-15 paragraphs posts? Too much peeps!

I would rather read a long and interesting post than a short post that is either wrong or has no real content.

 

[HaulingAss]

That was part of what was really impressive to me about the Semi video showing 500 miles of range fully loaded. They were basically all Freeway miles, which is way harder in EVs. Of course the Semi was driving around 55mph.

All Tesla can get the EPA rated range, or close to it, while driving a steady 55 mph in calm, mild air. Especially in the mountains where the air resistance is less.

The trouble is, people are stupid. They have mismatched tire pressures left to right, causing the differentials to operate with more drag, they keep their fog lights on 24/7, they fluctuate from regen to power because they follow too closely, etc. etc. etc.

People are terrible drivers, even most of the 87% who are better than average.

 

[Sirfun]

Curious by your post, I looked around, and found the semi tractor itself has a Cd of 0.36 - pretty good

and yes, driving 55mph is a key

in the US, the National Maximum Speed Law of 1973 established a national maximum speed limit of 55mph on all highways in order to conserve fuel in response to the oil crisis of that year. It was eventually repealed in 1987.

rule of thumb is that, depending on Cd and frontal area of a vehicle, for every 1mph over 55, drivers should expect to loose 1-2% of fuel economy

so the difference between 55 and 75 can be between 20-40%

Also a key reason why a lot of fleet vehicles are governed to 55ish.

and semi drivers I’m sure watch their OpEx

The speed limit for tractor trailers in California is 55mph. So that was probably part of why Tesla did that test/video in California.

 

[BeastSlayer]

That was part of what was really impressive to me about the Semi video showing 500 miles of range fully loaded. They were basically all Freeway miles, which is way harder in EVs. Of course the Semi was driving around 55mph.

That's what made me optimistic on Cybertruck. Whatever battery and mechanical tech Semi is using will be on CT. Someone here insist that his F150 Lightning towing and operating in cold weather will suck similarly as the Cybertruck.
l
Tesla semi got the range fully loaded and climbing the notorious long uphill in Grapevine. It was tested and now shuttling between Fremont and Giga Nevada along the Donner Pass at I-80.

 

[uscbucsfan]

That's what made me optimistic on Cybertruck. Whatever battery and mechanical tech Semi is using will be on CT. Someone here insist that his F150 Lightning towing and operating in cold weather will suck similarly as the Cybertruck.
l
Tesla semi got the range fully loaded and climbing the notorious long uphill in Grapevine. It was tested and now shuttling between Fremont and Giga Nevada along the Donner Pass at I-80.

The Semi has an 850 kwh battery.

 

[Bill906]

People are terrible drivers, even most of the 87% who are better than average.

This statement caused my brain to lock up for a second.

 

[cvalue13]

The Semi has an 850 kwh battery.

strange isn’t it, how bigger batteries make for longer range, especially if going 55mph not 75mph - sounds familiar /s

 

[cvalue13]

The speed limit for tractor trailers in California is 55mph. So that was probably part of why Tesla did that test/video in California.

absolutely, And in the case of semi’s that is a safety-driven law

was pointing out instead the instances where 55mph has been prioritized or mandated not for safety, but due to the fuel savings/range losses that increase exponentially between 55 and 75+

which mandates people sometimes confuse as having been safety-related

 

[BeastSlayer]

absolutely, And in the case of semi’s that is a safety-driven law

was pointing out instead the instances where 55mph has been prioritized or mandated not for safety, but due to the fuel savings/range losses that increase exponentially between 55 and 75+

which mandates people sometimes confuse as having been safety-related

Yeah, the California government is very concerned about truck company's profitability to mandate 55 mph speed limits for truck and for us puling RVs.

Yes, we are now conceding that you did not make a huge mistake buying your F150 Lightning. And no, the less than 100 mile range while towing was conspiracy theory by paid trolls of big oil.

You can now stop digging yourself in a bigger hole. It's getting pathetic. You are making me weep.

 

[cvalue13]

Yeah, the California government is very concerned about truck company's profitability to mandate 55 mph speed limits for truck and for us puling RVs.

I can’t even tell anymore if you’re serious; it’s the only way I can reconcile how you read something, and walk away with the 180° opposite of what was the obvious point

Yes, we are now conceding that you did not make a huge mistake buying your F150 Lightning. And no, the less than 100 mile range while towing was conspiracy theory by paid trolls of big oil.

bless your heart

• Lightning’s with a 320mi max range at EPA conditions do get only ~100 miles, if eg towing heavy at 75mph, etc.

• ICE F150’s with a 320mi max range at EPA (based on the amount of fuel in their tanks), also do get only ~100 miles, if eg towing heavy at 75mph, etc.

• at the end of the day, under identical conditions there is no material difference between ICE trucks and BEV trucks in terms of towing range - with four key exceptions:

(1) BEV trucks to date, have smaller “fuel” tanks compared to ICE trucks - point for ICE

(2) BEV batteries, unrelated to towing or driving conditions, experience charge degradation in material cold ambient temperatures - point for ICE

(3) BEV trucks, unlike ICE trucks, can regenerate power/charge while driving (if people know how to use the regen well) - point for BEV

(4) BEV trucks have far greater HP and TQ, which means a “1/2 ton” BEV truck can tow (other than range) like a heavy-duty truck (in terms of handling, performance, etc.) - point for BEV

everyone should understand, and has to weigh for themselves and their use cases, the above cost/benefits to decide if BEV trucks are right for them when it comes to range/towing

people who spread misinformation/FUD about BEV truck performance being due to some magical inferiority of the technology, are wrong. It comes down to primarily a matter of the size of the “fuel” tank

which is improving every day. And soon ICE will have no more “points” on its side of the scoreboard

could happen as soon as the release of the CT, if it comes with a 500mi EPA pack - because it will be able to tow heavy for a max of ~200mi if at 75mph (just like an ICE with a ~480mi EPA tank)

 

[Ogre]

The Q/A quote seems odd. "Very much dependent on what the demand is like?" Correct me if I am wrong (I know someone will! ) but don't they have at least 1 million pre-orders? Or more? Say 1.5M, that would still likely be at least 4 years at full production capacity even accounting for 1/3 of pre-orders cancelling.

Production capacity won’t be based on preorder size, it will be based on how many orders are coming in after production starts and customers have seen the truck.

If they get 1 million pre orders and new order volume is slow, it doesn’t make sense to ramp up to 500k trucks per year.

 

[SparkChaser]

Production capacity won’t be based on preorder size, it will be based on how many orders are coming in after production starts and customers have seen the truck.

If they get 1 million pre orders and new order volume is slow, it doesn’t make sense to ramp up to 500k trucks per year.

Chicken and egg. 3 years of full production is currently in place. The orders that are placed after they start being delivered is 3 years out. as long as those orders keep a demand total of 500 k they can ramp up to that number. They have 3 years at full capacity to build that back log.

 

[Ogre]

Chicken and egg. 3 years of full production is currently in place. The orders that are placed after they start being delivered is 3 years out. as long as those orders keep a demand total of 500 k they can ramp up to that number. They have 3 years at full capacity to build that back log.

I wouldn’t say chicken and egg here.

If the truck is appealing, pre-order take will be high and new orders will flow in. If it is over-priced or the criticisms of the critics turn out to be a big issue, pre-orders will drop off fast and new orders will not appear. Or perhaps it’ll be somewhere in between.

Regardless, Tesla’s capacity is sort-of locked into units of 250k per year based on Gigapress capacity. Ramping up the first 250k and seeing how demand reacts makes a ton of sense.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I wouldn’t say chicken and egg here.

If the truck is appealing, pre-order take will be high and new orders will flow in. If it is over-priced or the criticisms of the critics turn out to be a big issue, pre-orders will drop off fast and new orders will not appear. Or perhaps it’ll be somewhere in between.

Regardless, Tesla’s capacity is sort-of locked into units of 250k per year based on Gigapress capacity. Ramping up the first 250k and seeing how demand reacts makes a ton of sense.

Right, pre-orders do not equate to orders. Especially if the pricing or features (mainly range) change too much.

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