Are you a CyberTruck reservation holder who made multiple reservations and why?

[RMK!]

It will be interesting how this all shakes out. Tesla clearly stated in the Pre-Order Agreement no resellers. They may have some splaining to do come product rollout time.

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[John K]

It will be interesting how this all shakes out. Tesla clearly stated in the Pre-Order Agreement no resellers. They may have some splaining to do come product rollout time.

An enterprising person could lease with a buyout to a third party. They can also negotiate the deal before finalizing build so the can enter the third party’s preferences. After payment is made.

After the stock dip, I am selling mine for $4,999,998. All I need is one.

 

[Tinker71]

This should shake itself out with final pricing, official delivery estimates and a substantial deposits. Multiple orders under the same name and credit card shouldn't be too difficult to ferret out. Beyond that flipping could be mitigated by:

1.) Tesla should plan a rapid ramp to 5000 per week. If this is well advertised and believed, this will really help with the secondary market. Most sane people can wait a few months more to save $10,000 plus.

2.) There is only so many people with stupid money. Some of them just want a zippy EV truck. They will buy the Hummer or Lightning at a premium. That leaves Tesla fans with stupid money.

3.) Produce a premium quad or plaid first. That will soak up the flipping demand in a hurry.

4.) Once the flip margin gets to around $10,000 transaction cost to flip a truck will further minimize flipping.

I am surprised at the volume of repeat orders. I only did the one but wish I did another on the off chance that my CT gets totaled. I am seeing the take rate for the first million at only 60% right now. Maybe late 2024 for me now?

 

[RMK!]

This should shake itself out with final pricing, official delivery estimates and a substantial deposits. Multiple orders under the same name and credit card shouldn't be too difficult to ferret out. Beyond that flipping could be mitigated by:

1.) Tesla should plan a rapid ramp to 5000 per week. If this is well advertised and believed, this will really help with the secondary market. Most sane people can wait a few months more to save $10,000 plus.

2.) There is only so many people with stupid money. Some of them just want a zippy EV truck. They will buy the Hummer or Lightning at a premium. That leaves Tesla fans with stupid money.

3.) Produce a premium quad or plaid first. That will soak up the flipping demand in a hurry.

4.) Once the flip margin gets to around $10,000 transaction cost to flip a truck will further minimize flipping.

I am surprised at the volume of repeat orders. I only did the one but wish I did another on the off chance that my CT gets totaled. I am seeing the take rate for the first million at only 60% right now. Maybe late 2024 for me now?

I agree that there are certainly steps Tesla could take to mitigate flipping. I have trouble seeing their motivation in doing anything to discourage and thus reduce reservations. WIth zero spend on advertising, Tesla's having massive reservation numbers for the CyberTruck is an effective marketing tool in itself. Could all be by design ...

You seem like an analytical person, what is your reservation position that led you to a late 2024 delivery?

 

[Deleted member 5322]

What Tesla should do or should not - is not our business. They run business the way they want. If you so smart to say what tesla SHOULD do, why don’t you work for Tesla?
We can discuss whatever we want and give a thousand options on it. It does not affect how tesla does its business.
i see it as “empty” talks.

 

[RMK!]

What Tesla should do or should not - is not our business. They run business the way they want. If you so smart to say what tesla SHOULD do, why don’t you work for Tesla?
We can discuss whatever we want and give a thousand options on it. It does not affect how tesla does its business.
i see it as “empty” talks.

And you have the option to ignore this thread so please do ...

 

[Tinker71]

I agree that there are certainly steps Tesla could take to mitigate flipping. I have trouble seeing their motivation in doing anything to discourage and thus reduce reservations. WIth zero spend on advertising, Tesla's having massive reservation numbers for the CyberTruck is an effective marketing tool in itself. Could all be by design ...

You seem like an analytical person, what is your reservation position that led you to a late 2024 delivery?

Flipping is lost revenue for Tesla. It is money on the table that they could put to better use.
Tesla doesn't have to deal with dealer gouging which is damaging to the brand, but still.

As a stock holder I think they should mitigate the flipping and take what profit is available. I would be better off if the share price hit $2000 than saving $20k on the truck.

I was late to the party. Roughly 650k in line overall. 250k for the CT2. If they make 400,000 units by the end of 2024 I might get there.

 

[RMK!]

Flipping is lost revenue for Tesla. It is money on the table that they could put to better use.
Tesla doesn't have to deal with dealer gouging which is damaging to the brand, but still.

As a stock holder I think they should mitigate the flipping and take what profit is available. I would be better off if the share price hit $2000 than saving $20k on the truck.

I was late to the party. Roughly 650k in line overall. 250k for the CT2. If they make 400,000 units by the end of 2024 I might get there.

Different perspectives are always good. As a stock holder, I prefer they keep the vehicle priced aggressively low based upon their lower cost to build and a higher volume of sales vs any other EV manufacturer. Their current margins are much higher than anyone so focus on increasing production and price aggressively for maximum sales. ICE is still king and Tesla needs to build for long term dominance, not short term gain.

 

[John K]

There will be a point in the future someone sells their CT. I don’t care if they sell sooner or later. My reservation number will come up so no stress from me. Besides, when I receive mine, the cup holder will be perfected. Poor @Crissa, @Ogre and all you 5 digit and below reservists will have spilled drinks. My sympathies.

 

[Tinker71]

Different perspectives are always good. As a stock holder, I prefer they keep the vehicle priced aggressively low based upon their lower cost to build and a higher volume of sales vs any other EV manufacturer. Their current margins are much higher than anyone so focus on increasing production and price aggressively for maximum sales. ICE is still king and Tesla needs to build for long term dominance, not short term gain.

I agree to an extent.

The pricing with Tesla and the competition will be very interesting in the next 3-5 years if raw materials are the major constraints. If Tesla has a cost advantage in manufacturing they will be able to price their comparable offering 5-10% below the competition. That may be the plan. I contend there is no reason to go lower.

I am not an economist but pricing less 10% below market is probably counter productive to net profit at the 4-5000 units per week we are currently envisioning. Higher volumes won't significantly reduce cost at this level. Maybe an economist can chime in with the chart/theory that approximates market share/volumes/revenue/profits for durable goods with a 10 year service life.

If the factory is sized for 5000 units per week they might eventually be able squeeze 6000 per week before they build another. Exceeding that will be the big decision point, whether it is worth it to build another factory. I think Tesla is assuming per capita ownership of vehicles will actually decrease with Robotaxi. I started this post with the idea that Tesla might not build another CT factory. Looking at the data I changed my mind.

Currently in the USA there are roughly 60 million light trucks and 28 million full size SUV on the road. Guessing at an average service life of 7 years, sustaining production would need to be 12.6 million per year which matches the 2nd chart.

The data is a little confusing since the sales of the top 5 manufacturers is only 38% of the total. But if Tesla just had a 20% market penetration of 3 million units from the top 5 that would equate to ~600k units per year for Tesla. This should be easy since the CT will likely be superior in each class and less expensive. Easily justifying a 2nd factory. Wildcards would be introduction of the smaller "rest of world" CT, or CT based SUV/Van.

Bottom line CT is just one of many products for Tesla. With limited human and raw material resources, they won't care about market pentation or volume specifically. It will all be about maximum gross profits. I bet we are 6 years away from Tesla focusing on CT volume to increase profits.

 

[Sirfun]

Looking at this chart, the future doesn't bode well for Ford or GM. They have both put most of their eggs in one basket. The light trucks!!
Look at what happened when light truck production went down the tubes in 2008. GM went broke, and Ford barely survived. Reading reports that half of current truck owners are looking to buy an EV truck for their next purchase could be devastating. It means their "gravy", ICE truck sales, is going to take a big hit. And they have yet to figure out how to make much/if any profit off EVs.
If Tesla wanting to, they could put their foot right on the OEMs throats. Produce enough Cybertrucks to keep up with demand, and maintain a low enough price, that hardly anyone will want to buy the OEMs trucks. Starve them of money, and they will no longer be the competition.

 

[Tinker71]

Looking at this chart, the future doesn't bode well for Ford or GM. They have both put most of their eggs in one basket. The light trucks!!
Look at what happened when light truck production went down the tubes in 2008. GM went broke, and Ford barely survived. Reading reports that half of current truck owners are looking to buy an EV truck for their next purchase could be devastating. It means their "gravy", ICE truck sales, is going to take a big hit. And they have yet to figure out how to make much/if any profit off EVs.
If Tesla wanting to, they could put their foot right on the OEMs throats. Produce enough Cybertrucks to keep up with demand, and maintain a low enough price, that hardly anyone will want to buy the OEMs trucks. Starve them of money, and they will no longer be the competition.

The big 3 are screwed. There just isn't a good answer for them. I would hate to loose the competition. I don't think Tesla wants or needs to kill the competition off through any pricing strategy.

 

[Ogre]

I agree to an extent.

The pricing with Tesla and the competition will be very interesting in the next 3-5 years if raw materials are the major constraints. If Tesla has a cost advantage in manufacturing they will be able to price their comparable offering 5-10% below the competition. That may be the plan. I contend there is no reason to go lower.

I am not an economist but pricing less 10% below market is probably counter productive to net profit at the 4-5000 units per week we are currently envisioning. Higher volumes won't significantly reduce cost at this level. Maybe an economist can chime in with the chart/theory that approximates market share/volumes/revenue/profits for durable goods with a 10 year service life.

If the factory is sized for 5000 units per week they might eventually be able squeeze 6000 per week before they build another. Exceeding that will be the big decision point, whether it is worth it to build another factory. I think Tesla is assuming per capita ownership of vehicles will actually decrease with Robotaxi. I started this post with the idea that Tesla might not build another CT factory. Looking at the data I changed my mind.

Currently in the USA there are roughly 60 million light trucks and 28 million full size SUV on the road. Guessing at an average service life of 7 years, sustaining production would need to be 12.6 million per year which matches the 2nd chart.

The data is a little confusing since the sales of the top 5 manufacturers is only 38% of the total. But if Tesla just had a 20% market penetration of 3 million units from the top 5 that would equate to ~600k units per year for Tesla. This should be easy since the CT will likely be superior in each class and less expensive. Easily justifying a 2nd factory. Wildcards would be introduction of the smaller "rest of world" CT, or CT based SUV/Van.

Bottom line CT is just one of many products for Tesla. With limited human and raw material resources, they won't care about market pentation or volume specifically. It will all be about maximum gross profits. I bet we are 6 years away from Tesla focusing on CT volume to increase profits.

Competition is not electric trucks. It is all trucks.

Tesla made this clear at launch.
There are big parts of the gas truck market who wont consider trucks at Rivian prices.

 

[Crissa]

Not only would it look bad if Tesla were to raise prices (see the furor Rivian had)...

...It changes the perception of the trucks. Too many people think Teslas are super-expensive, even when compared to similarly capable vehicles, they are not. Even with the raised prices!

And that'll hurt them when they can and will want to lower prices to penetrate other markets.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

Competition is not electric trucks. It is all trucks.

I agree Tesla should eventually try to capture the ICE truck market. We have a long way to go before Tesla/Ford/xx even has the capacity to supply the entire truck market. So why underprice now? Prices will drop relatively.

If good batteries get down to $50 per kWhr EVs should kill off ICE based on TCO. EV are simpler to build with fewer parts/systems. Competition will drive margins down. Tesla doesn't have to do it alone.

Oh I wish there was a carbon tax. Allowing some to pollute to save money at the expense of the environment and the many sucks so hard. The carbon tax would accelerate the transition. They should have started to phase it in years ago. Manufacturing capacity for EV would be 2-3x what it is now.

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