Cybertruck a flop?!?!

[hemiarch]

So you're saying the Cybertruck will be a late bloomer?

Like that skinny flat-chested girl you went to high school with who turned into a sexy young woman by age 21?

That’s exactly what I’m saying. As the sales suffer Tesla will have to continue to lower the price and that will also drive down used prices. Once it hits the hands of people not cross shopping it with an Escalade/Range Rover or a Porsche, it will become very popular. Everyone on this forum already knows why.
If you think about it, right now it’s a utility truck competing pricewise with cars world leaders are chauffeured around in. A little less so now that the FS scam is over but still the case. And before everyone proceeds to lynch me for saying that, remember, I bought two foundation series trucks but I still think it was a scam.
Basically the market will buy it at the price they should have set for it to start with.
As for whether production and sales (basically cost and margin) can survive that late puberty remains to be seen.
We can only hope that all this investment in stamping production, battery capabilities and cars that self deliver etc. wil result in enough savings that they WILL allow it to survive.

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[Beetlebug62]

I thought I'd post the product adoption curves. Everyone can make up their own minds on where they think the EV transition currently sits, but I think we're in the Disillusionment Chasm area.

The top red line is the Hype Curve. The bottom is your standard Bell Curve. It has not helped that the gov't has backed off their EV transition plans as the Big-3 have slowed their roll. It's almost like one company is pulling and the others are lagging.

The Chasm seems wider because the laggards are losing money. If they were profitable making EVs, they'd all be pushing forward, and the Chasm likely would be narrower. Because of that the FUD is high and the Chasm is wide.

Now, you can put countries like Norway and China further up the adoption curve, and US EV car adoption further in the Chasm, but I think EV trucks are their own category, and further behind in the Chasm. Sort of like where we are with FSD, at least a year behind.

 

[hemiarch]

I thought I'd post the product adoption curves. Everyone can make up their own minds on where they think the EV transition currently sits, but I think we're in the Disillusionment Chasm area.

The top red line is the Hype Curve. The bottom is your standard Bell Curve. It has not helped that the gov't has backed off their EV transition plans as the Big-3 have slowed their roll. It's almost like one company is pulling and the others are lagging.

The Chasm seems wider because the laggards are losing money. If they were profitable making EVs, they'd all be pushing forward, and the Chasm likely would be narrower. Because of that the FUD is high and the Chasm is wide.

Now, you can put countries like Norway and China further up the adoption curve, and US EV car adoption further in the Chasm, but I think EV trucks are their own category, and further behind in the Chasm. Sort of like where we are with FSD, at least a year behind.

Now this…is a fabulous post. Thank you @Beetlebug62

 

[Sjohnson20]

If the AWD CT was priced at the anticipated $49,900 MSRP would the TX assembly lines be cranking out 125,000 trucks annually?

I would say no. It would sell much better than now. But 125k is a lot of large EVs. No one has come close to that in a year. 50-60k in a year maybe.

 

[BrockN]

I thought I'd post the product adoption curves. Everyone can make up their own minds on where they think the EV transition currently sits, but I think we're in the Disillusionment Chasm area.

The top red line is the Hype Curve. The bottom is your standard Bell Curve. It has not helped that the gov't has backed off their EV transition plans as the Big-3 have slowed their roll. It's almost like one company is pulling and the others are lagging.

The Chasm seems wider because the laggards are losing money. If they were profitable making EVs, they'd all be pushing forward, and the Chasm likely would be narrower. Because of that the FUD is high and the Chasm is wide.

Now, you can put countries like Norway and China further up the adoption curve, and US EV car adoption further in the Chasm, but I think EV trucks are their own category, and further behind in the Chasm. Sort of like where we are with FSD, at least a year behind.

I don't think you're wrong.

But in the case of trucks, I suspect that the chasm is wider than for cars and the left side of the bell curve will be much wider and less steep than the right. Truck buyers are a different breed and - I think - much less willing (or able) to accept change. Their identity is more tightly tied to their vehicle than the average car and minivan buyer. Pragmatic they are not. So EV truck adoption will be slower, until the people on the right side of the curve figure out they're no longer in the cool group and scramble to purchase and be accepted again.

 

[TJCJr9999]

I would like to give a shout out to Tesla, the team that engineered and built it and Elon Musk for making it all happen. The Cybertruck is absolutely the most amazing vehicle that I've ever driven (and I've driven some really cool vehicles). When people ask I tell them, "It handles like a sports car, rides better (and is quieter) than my Escalade, accelerates like a super car and does it all on all terrain tires!" What's not to love?!?!

I've had my CyberBeast for a year and a half now and it's my second EV ever (my first was a Hummer EV edition 1). Cybertuck is the clear winner here as the steering and handling (and acceleration) FAR surpasses the Hummer on the road. The electronics are also VASTLY superior as is the ability to drive itself. I'm glad that I don't have to worry about paint and shopping carts, tree branches or anything else that might scratch my paint. BTW, I've only ever sprayed my truck off at the car wash 2 times since I've owned it (that's the extent of me washing my truck), the rain washes it off more than anything.

I DO NOT like to hear all of the negativity that the CT gets and don't think it's fair. I ABSOLUTELY LOVE MY TRUCK and if I wrecked it and had a total loss, I'd buy another one just like it in a half of a second!

To all of the people that flip me off, throw s*** at me, scream derogatory names at me, ect... I drive a vehicle that is (for me) VASTLY superior to whatever the hell it is that YOU drive. Perhaps you should consider the possibility that you're just obtuse and follow the sheeple that listen to fake news. Why don't you take a drive in a Cybertruck and then you'll have a better position to make claims about it.

Grow up. People are afraid of change (not me) and there is something on the horizon that is better than what we're accustomed to. Embrace it, you won't be disappointed.

Relax, do what I do to the five lousy idiots who have given me the finger (always going the opposite direction, compared to the hundreds that love the truck), three of them I have turned around followed them into where they parked, rolled down my window and asking them if they got something to say to me, and without a doubt, I scared the crap out of them, and they sheepish shied away..

 

[CyberGus]

The CT is absolutely a flop for Tesla. They spent billions on creating a specific line, process, etc that can support 125k trucks per year and expand to 250k.

That’s a bit of an exaggeration. It’s true that Tesla spent billions on GigaTexas, but only about 1/4 of the factory floor is for Cybertruck. Most of the space is for Model Y, and for 4680 production. That also includes a cathode plant, and 100MW solar megapack power station! So it’s not like they would shutter the factory if the CT was cancelled.

The 240k/year figure was based on running multiple shifts around the clock. Even the 120k capacity is oversized, but that does not mean the Cybertruck is not profitable.

 

[CyberZephyr]

I would like to give a shout out to Tesla, the team that engineered and built it and Elon Musk for making it all happen. The Cybertruck is absolutely the most amazing vehicle that I've ever driven (and I've driven some really cool vehicles). When people ask I tell them, "It handles like a sports car, rides better (and is quieter) than my Escalade, accelerates like a super car and does it all on all terrain tires!" What's not to love?!?!

I've had my CyberBeast for a year and a half now and it's my second EV ever (my first was a Hummer EV edition 1). Cybertuck is the clear winner here as the steering and handling (and acceleration) FAR surpasses the Hummer on the road. The electronics are also VASTLY superior as is the ability to drive itself. I'm glad that I don't have to worry about paint and shopping carts, tree branches or anything else that might scratch my paint. BTW, I've only ever sprayed my truck off at the car wash 2 times since I've owned it (that's the extent of me washing my truck), the rain washes it off more than anything.

I DO NOT like to hear all of the negativity that the CT gets and don't think it's fair. I ABSOLUTELY LOVE MY TRUCK and if I wrecked it and had a total loss, I'd buy another one just like it in a half of a second!

To all of the people that flip me off, throw s*** at me, scream derogatory names at me, ect... I drive a vehicle that is (for me) VASTLY superior to whatever the hell it is that YOU drive. Perhaps you should consider the possibility that you're just obtuse and follow the sheeple that listen to fake news. Why don't you take a drive in a Cybertruck and then you'll have a better position to make claims about it.

Grow up. People are afraid of change (not me) and there is something on the horizon that is better than what we're accustomed to. Embrace it, you won't be disappointed.

Yeah, I think a problem is that people go "lol rich dumb guy have shiny luxury car. bad guy", when in reality, the Cybertruck is SO much more than a "shiny luxury car" lol

 

[CyberGus]

Giving collision centers and service centers new cars that in some cases were well over 100k new to use as loaners seems a bit ominous to me.

Nothing will make people fall in love with Cybertruck faster than driving one. All loaners should be Cybertrucks!

 

[YDR37]

As the sales suffer Tesla will have to continue to lower the price and that will also drive down used prices .... As for whether production and sales (basically cost and margin) can survive that late puberty remains to be seen.

We will get an important clue about Cybertruck production costs and margins in about six weeks, after the expiration of the $7,500 Federal tax credit on Sept. 30. Most Americans qualify for the tax credit, and we can safely assume that it was applied in most 2025 Cybertruck sales.

If Tesla does nothing, then the effective price of the AWD CT will rise from $72,490 to $79,990 for most Americans -- which is a 10.3% jump. The effective price of the RWD CT will rise from $62,490 to $69,990 -- which is a 12.0% jump. When the price of anything goes up by 10-12%, you know it's going to hurt sales.

But Tesla won't "do nothing". They will cut prices on the AWD/RWD CT (and on the Model 3 and Model Y) -- but by how much? If Tesla lowers prices by $7,500, to fully compensate for the loss of the tax credit, it will indicate that they had healthy margins and can afford to discount.

But if Tesla only partially compensates -- say they lower prices, but only by $5,000 or $2,500 -- it will suggest that their margins are slimmer, and that they don't have as much flexibility on pricing. In that case, it is less likely that CTs will get cheaper someday. On the contrary, the effective price of an AWD/RWD CT will go up for most Americans, at least in the short term.

 

[HaulingAss]

But Tesla won't "do nothing". They will cut prices on the AWD/RWD CT (and on the Model 3 and Model Y) -- but by how much? If Tesla lowers prices by $7,500, to fully compensate for the loss of the tax credit, it will indicate that they had healthy margins and can afford to discount.

You can't tell much about margins by the price the manufacturer sets for any particular vehicle. Basically, manufacturers who put a vehicle into production set the prices at what the market will bear, even if it's below the cost to produce.

Just look at basically all other EV manufacturers, they all sell below the cost to produce. You can't tell margins by price adjustments.

 

[YDR37]

You can't tell much about margins by the price the manufacturer sets for any particular vehicle. Basically, manufacturers who put a vehicle into production set the prices at what the market will bear, even if it's below the cost to produce.

We don't know exactly how profitable the AWD Cybertruck is for Tesla. But we can reasonably assume that if Tesla lowers the retail price on October 1, it will become less profitable.

Let's say that Tesla lowers the price of an AWD CT by $7,500 on October 1, to fully compensate for the loss of the tax credit on September 30. That would help to maintain current levels of demand, since the effective price of an AWD CT would remain unchanged. But Tesla's profit on each CT sale would take a significant hit.

Or maybe Tesla lowers the price of an AWD CT by just $2,500 on October 1, which would only partially offset the loss of the tax credit. In this scenario, the effective price of an AWD CT would rise by $5,000, and presumably demand would fall. But Tesla's profit on each CT sale would be higher.

Tesla can either (1) maintain demand while sacrificing profits, or (2) maintain profits while sacrificing demand, or (3) sacrifice a little of both. We should find out their choice in October, and it may provide clues about their priorities.

 

[hemiarch]

My guess is they will first try give people benefits that don’t necessarily cost them that much to “equate” to at least part of the value of the tax credit.
Something like free “upgrade” to all terrain wheels or white interior in the case of the Cybertruck. Probably paint color, wheels or seating arrangement for other models, discounted or free FSD etc.

 

[russ pisano]

I'm so happy with my cyber truck. I don't use it much because my s75 has free charging so I use my truck when going on a longer trip

 

[Mini2nut]

Tesla will need to drop CT prices by $7500 in Q4 or add some nice incentives to keep the CT production line moving.

If Tesla does nothing CT deliveries are going to take a hit. Those who were on the fence regarding a CT purchase and qualify for the $7500 tax credit are going to take delivery in Q3.

CT depreciation should also benefit after the $7500 credit expires.

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