Cybertruck production possibly 900-1,000 weekly rate now, estimates Joe Tegtmeyer

[Cyberman]

Ramp ramp.

Godramp.

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[CyberT1]

"Cybertruck production continues obvious ramp up, possibly near 900-1,000 weekly rate now! New Cybertruck path through new EOL in operation! Many on the N, E & S sides of the W EOL facility & many more in W outbound lot & E testing lot. Cybertrucks also now using testing track on W side of EOL. 1/2"

Thinking about canceling my Cybertruck tired of waiting might just order a new S. I have my vin on the truck have all the paperwork done but just getting tired of all this.

 

[agordon117]

Yeah, I'm not buying this. The wednesday outbound was 43 trucks (and it was very obvious which side of the lot california trucks were on, lol). I'm just not buying what he's selling. There's just no way the number of trucks going out is that high. And the number of trucks stacking up isn't high enough either if you want to pretend that production doesn't include the step of a vehicle being actually finished and shipped rather than staged.

My 1:10 assumption plus vin assignment over the last week, assuming it will increase over the next week (usually people report here a few days after they got their vin), we're still at 90 truck shipping per day. That's the only real number. It doesn't matter how many roll out of the factory. They aren't "produced" until they are no longer being held back from shipping for a piece of trim, airbag bracket, torquing the motor bolts, etc.

Probably 150 trucks are rolling out the door of the factory on the best day each week, while 90 are shipping average (but some days are far less, leading to this build up as the week goes on). Factory only runs 6 days a week but shipping happens all 7 days. Number of trucks shipping per week is ~630 still. We have absolutely not seen an uptick in vin assignments since the 7 days of 3/7-3/13. We are at best flat from that point as of the last 7 days.

He always makes it hard to count too by not doing 2 passes over the outbound lot.

 

[MeadowShade]

You know what, how many they are making is of no concern by itself. I may be next or there might be 50,000 people in front of me. So if they are making 5 per day or 500 per day, who cares? I was 100,000 in line by reservation number. Let's say they have delivered just over 2,000 by VIN's. If they had 10% takers on the FS and maybe a couple hundred on the 30k points and / shareholder offer (which sucks by the way) I am at 10,000th in line now. So 1,000 per week means June at least. Unless they let friends and family line jump too. Hell they have $200 million in deposits at least. Maybe I could just set on that at 5% for a bit. No rush to do anything except to make the line longer and last longer. That is what Line Jumping does.

 

[Solstadwest]

This theory has been going around for 2 months now, and it hasn't been true. As of 3/18 I can tell you for sure they are not deliberately waiting on vin assignments until trucks are at/near the destination. Not in Ohio.

Founder Cyber Beast holder in Ohio...still waiting on my VIN

 

[agordon117]

Founder Cyber Beast holder in Ohio...still waiting on my VIN

Not aware of any beasts here yet. I believe 2-4 trucks have been delivered so far, and we know there is one more batch on the way with at least 2 on it (mine is one of them, both AWD)

 

[canyoncarver]

I am extremely skeptical of that production rate.

They might have gotten to the point where they are cranking out over 1,000 per month though.

When they get to the point that they are building 1,000 a week it seems that they will start delivering test drive mules to the largest markets.

I know I'm not buying an $80,000+ truck without driving a demo at least once.

 

[SentinelOne]

Heard some locations sending service techs to tx to help with finishing trucks - guessing post build fixes to get them shipped - maybe they got some delayed components to install recently or implementing critical service bulletins. who knows, but in theory should get a few of the mostly completed trucks out the door.

 

[cybguy]

"Cybertruck production continues obvious ramp up, possibly near 900-1,000 weekly rate now! New Cybertruck path through new EOL in operation! Many on the N, E & S sides of the W EOL facility & many more in W outbound lot & E testing lot. Cybertrucks also now using testing track on W side of EOL. 1/2"

Joe has real issues with logic and math.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

"Cybertruck production continues obvious ramp up, possibly near 900-1,000 weekly rate now! New Cybertruck path through new EOL in operation! Many on the N, E & S sides of the W EOL facility & many more in W outbound lot & E testing lot. Cybertrucks also now using testing track on W side of EOL. 1/2"

With regards to 'ramps' and LOTS,
here is my Sunday Funday:

'Where do you go in Morrocco to buy a 'Ship Of The Desert'

'C A M E L
L O T'

 

[theholyrice]

Looks like from Nov 2023 - Feb 2024 they were going from 1-3 trucks to maybe 10 trucks per day. Now maybe 40-60 trucks per day. Seeing how they're still delivering orders from early Dec., and assuming 1:10 orders were registered here, I estimate Tesla delivered less than 3,000 trucks so far. There are maybe 20,000 - 35,000 FS orders out there, so about 1/10th of the FS orders were delivered.

I ordered on Jan 10th...so maybe 3,000 - 5,000 trucks later I will get mine? If my estimates are accurate I will get mine around end of May...the wait is killing me...I need my truck now...

 

[Bob-offroader]

Same here @ WA

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