AkaCarioca

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I think we need a bot to reply to questions like this. All it would need to do is any time it detects a question about the Cybertruck’s specs it would reply with “We don’t know. Nobody outside Tesla knows”.

Super flexible and accurate/

Q: What is the milage now?
A: We don’t know. Nobody outside Tesla knows.

Q: What is the quad motor going to cost?
A: We don’t know. Nobody outside Tesla knows.

Q: Are they dropping the single motor truck?
A: We don’t know. Nobody outside Tesla knows.

Q: What does the dual motor cost now?
A: We don’t know. Nobody outside Tesla knows.

Q: How fast is the quad motor going to be?
A: We don’t know. Nobody outside Tesla knows.


It should be the easiest bot in the world to make.
Agree. While creating such bot, create a similar one for snarky replies like yours. 🖕

 
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I think i"m 152k.
Then I saw somewhere 137482. How can we possibly figure out when?
 

Crissa

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I think i"m 152k.
Then I saw somewhere 137482. How can we possibly figure out when?
You can manually add to the reservation spreadsheet, but there's no real way to estimate launch date or ramp at this point. It's all guesses.

-Crissa
 


Kurt'sCyberTruck

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Well, I waited 2 1/2 years to get my 2016 MX 90D. Im now 3 years on the list for the Cybertruck (my Reservation # 112747834) and I honestly think Im still more than a year out. :confused: Im hanging in there and still very excited waiting for my delivery!
 

charliemagpie

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Well, I waited 2 1/2 years to get my 2016 MX 90D. Im now 3 years on the list for the Cybertruck (my Reservation # 112747834) and I honestly think Im still more than a year out. :confused: Im hanging in there and still very excited waiting for my delivery!
In the coming years long wait times may be the norm.

Once the greater majority realizes ICE days are numbered, they will just hold onto their car and wait for their EV.

There will be a window of time where there will be hardly any new ICE purchases but not enough EV's. This window will stretch out wait times.


I think new ICE will die in a fiery spiral, closely followed by the cheaper end used ICE market.

The 2 remaining segments will be EV, and the forever shrinking higher end used ICE models


1667097966718.png
 

Ogre

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In the coming years long wait times may be the norm.

Once the greater majority realizes ICE days are numbered, they will just hold onto their car and wait for their EV.

There will be a window of time where there will be hardly any new ICE purchases but not enough EV's. This window will stretch out wait times.


I think new ICE will die in a fiery spiral, closely followed by the cheaper end used ICE market.

The 2 remaining segments will be EV, and the forever shrinking higher end used ICE models


1667097966718.png
You forgot to include the chart. Which I think is the hero of this conversation Viecha had. Basically it’s suggesting people Will slowly just lose all interest in non-EVs and even though EV sales won’t fill the gap fully, people will just wait until they can upgrade before buying.

This is pretty much worse case for legacy auto. Their revenue collapses and they will be crushed by massive debt.

1667104579017.png
 

Crissa

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...and even though EV sales won’t fill the gap fully, people will just wait until they can upgrade before buying.

This is pretty much worse case for legacy auto. Their revenue collapses and they will be crushed by massive debt.

1667104579017.png
Pretty sure a bunch of us are just that. I'm not going to buy another ICE car. We bought a new Ducati three years ago... on discount with 0% interest and now that spouse has seen the maintenance bills, she wants an Energica.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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Many billions will be wiped out in the next 5 years. It’s goin got be a rough time.

Not just GM and Ford. Dealerships. Auto parts companies that make ORM parts. Down the road, auto shops and muffler shops. Brake shops.

Going to be a ton of churn over the next 15-20 years.
 


charliemagpie

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I actually hadn't looked closely at that chart. Certainly, the fiery end is there.

Excuses will no longer work from 2024.
 

rr6013

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The chart understates apparent demand which is natural+pent up. Death Valley looks like the Grand Canyon considering the price of gasoline.
DCB7B406-2EA6-450A-8735-DFA299E64B3C.jpeg

GM was reported to be financially constrained by cash on-hand by 2025, FORD by 2026 and those are just two of the USA Big Three. There be a kill floor at bottom of the Valley.

BEV GAME is emerging:
EC443E2F-9102-48E3-84D7-59B916DD1166.jpeg


Basically, *All* OEM’s on the LEFTside are at risk of not making it past the yellow bars. The overshoot dropoff in demand from pent up results in flat period which kills the weak.

On the RIGHTside, the OEM’s are locked into their category. The fails will come from categorical failure.

Struggles will be OEM’s LEFT moving to one of the categories on the RIGHT. The RIGHT struggle to move out of their category.

OEM’s LEFT moving up category haven’t TIME or burnrate to outrun Yellow bars as apparent demand flattens.

OEM’s RIGHT goal is to build cash on-hand to bridge over flat apparent demand overshoot to reach the “good times”.

A genius invents a whole new category- can stake first mover advantage either side.
 

AkaCarioca

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Pretty sure a bunch of us are just that. I'm not going to buy another ICE car. We bought a new Ducati three years ago... on discount with 0% interest and now that spouse has seen the maintenance bills, she wants an Energica.

-Crissa
Which Ducati?
I have a 2012 Diavel Carbon Red and have no plans to ever sell it.
 

Ogre

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The chart understates apparent demand which is natural+pent up. Death Valley looks like the Grand Canyon considering the price of gasoline.
DCB7B406-2EA6-450A-8735-DFA299E64B3C.jpeg

GM was reported to be financially constrained by cash on-hand by 2025, FORD by 2026 and those are just two of the USA Big Three. There be a kill floor at bottom of the Valley.

BEV GAME is emerging:
EC443E2F-9102-48E3-84D7-59B916DD1166.jpeg


Basically, *All* OEM’s on the LEFTside are at risk of not making it past the yellow bars. The overshoot dropoff in demand from pent up results in flat period which kills the weak.

On the RIGHTside, the OEM’s are locked into their category. The fails will come from categorical failure.

Struggles will be OEM’s LEFT moving to one of the categories on the RIGHT. The RIGHT struggle to move out of their category.

OEM’s LEFT moving up category haven’t TIME or burnrate to outrun Yellow bars as apparent demand flattens.

OEM’s RIGHT goal is to build cash on-hand to bridge over flat apparent demand overshoot to reach the “good times”.

A genius invents a whole new category- can stake first mover advantage either side.
The chart is more about illustrating an idea, not so much about the exact numbers.

How many people just keep their old cars for 2-3 more years until anEV that meets their needs is available?
 

AkaCarioca

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The chart is more about illustrating an idea, not so much about the exact numbers.

How many people just keep their old cars for 2-3 more years until anEV that meets their needs is available?
I have a 2017 FPace diesel that gives me average 35 miles per gallon. Just turned 60K miles and I am keeping until it dies or I get the Cybertruck. I work from home, so no rush.

 

 
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