Ogre

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I don't know that it means anything. I don't think this is a clear sign they are *waiting* for the new hardware necessarily.

Right now we are in Cybertruck limbo. We're not quite sure when production will start. Until we see some beta Cybertruck's rolling around, Giga presses in Texas, and 4680 cells are being produced in volume, it's just a giant guessing game.

I suggest not falling in love with any particular production start date.
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GnarlyDudeLive

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That will very likely change. They are already trying to charge people to upgrade to new FSD hardware. I think we will see future FSD purchases lock you in to the hardware that came with your vehicle when you bought FSD. And then to upgrade hardware required as new FSD software comes out you will need to pay to upgrade. It seems like the open source give stuff away for free Elon of the past is fading away and the industrialized and calloused Tesla that needs to see solid profits is what the future looks like. And really that’s fair.
You could be right but at a 10k premium for software, a $300 hit to Tesla is not enormous to provide a free hardware upgrade. Perhaps a +1 free upgrade could be a tolerable middle ground. This would ensure the customer that they don't need to hold off buying because of risk of being outdated in a few months down the road.
 

Cybertruckee

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It will just take more iterations and more data.
Can you program reverse logic that red means go, green means slow down as my brother's car might be the one beating the red light and yellow means go faster?:eek:
 
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CostcoSamples

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Another year!? That makes me very sad... As order number 546,000 it may well be 3-4 more years before I park a CT in my driveway. My Mazda 6 can't last that long!
 

Jamessmooth007

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I only heard that the Cybertruck would get the hardware first. Like the Model 3 got the last iteration first, the first Model 3s had to be upgraded later. Tesla didn't hold back the cars for the FSD computers.

-Crissa
This is honestly a great point. Just because FSD CPU might not be ready doesn't mean they won't ship CT. Especially since they've done so in the past. If you believe the 1 million reservations for CT, Tesla has huge motivation to get these things into customers hands.

I am around 4200 and will gladly take mine right away, even if it has the older HW. I also currently have one of the first 20k model S vehicles they built. I trust Tesla will put out a solid product, as that car, with 111k miles, still has fewer rattles and creaks than any other car I've ever driven.
Hey, at least we won't have to worry about panel gaps! :LOL:
I'm within the first 1,000 reservations and I'm with ya - give it to me ASAP!
 

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WHAT? Does this mean we are a YEAR away from first deliveries? Yikes!
If you've been following CT developments recently, this shouldn't have been a shock. 4680's, Elon saying CT production would be "hard," no sign of 8 ton giga press... we're AT LEAST a year out.
 

tidmutt

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This is honestly a great point. Just because FSD CPU might not be ready doesn't mean they won't ship CT. Especially since they've done so in the past. If you believe the 1 million reservations for CT, Tesla has huge motivation to get these things into customers hands.



Hey, at least we won't have to worry about panel gaps! :LOL:
I'm within the first 1,000 reservations and I'm with ya - give it to me ASAP!
Yeah, I didn't think Elon's words necessarily meant the CT wasn't shipping for a year, just that the FSD computer would ship then. I do recognize that maybe it MIGHT mean that, but it's not clear.
 

Ogre

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Another year!? That makes me very sad... As order number 546,000 it may well be 3-4 more years before I park a CT in my driveway. My Mazda 6 can't last that long!
Well we knew it wasn't going to ship until at least Q1 2022. So it's not "Another Year", is perhaps "Another 6-8 months". And that is only maybe. Also. Musk didn't say they would wait until HW4 was available, he said it would first ship about this time next year *in the Cybertruck*. Does not preclude shipping some Cybertrucks with HW3.

Though I'd prefer to wait a bit more and get HW4 myself regardless. Going to live with this truck for 10+ years, waiting an extra couple months so it's significantly better the rest of the 10+ years I own it is worthwhile.
 
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shocker

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I'm wondering if the as yet unrevealed Silverado will beat the CT to market.
I have a Lightning reservation as a hedge. Order book on that opens this Fall.
 

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That will very likely change.
They can't change it until they don't retire an FSD version. The loan of the (now $10k) is predicated upon the car being able to achieve level 5 autonomy at some point in the future. The cost, of course, is if they choose different hardware, well, they have to pay for it.

-Crissa
 

Red61224

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Another year!? That makes me very sad... As order number 546,000 it may well be 3-4 more years before I park a CT in my driveway. My Mazda 6 can't last that long!
Apply a little Red Green technology and smack some Duct Tape on that sucker and make it to the finish line.
 

HaulingAss

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Yeah I think Q3 2022 is a realistic estimate.
For what?

You need to specify if you're estimating the first one off the line, when you get yours, when production ramps to 1000/week or what.
 

HaulingAss

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With the bang for the buck that we are getting they need to be perfect on the rollout. As long as the competition is not producing in volume the pent up demand will continue and Tesla has little risk with the delay.
Demand for the Cybertruck is not dependent upon "the competition" failing to produce in volume because the manufacturers who have announced BEV pickups cannot match the value Tesla is offering. And "the competition" is not other BEV makers, it's the other ICE vehicles which make up over 97% of the competition. Not even they can match the value offered by Cybertruck unless you happen to need a truck primarily for long-haul towing (which is very niche case in the light truck market)

At this point, Tesla is as good as anybody with a new vehicle roll out. The competition will have equal or greater problems ramping production.
Ignoring potential chip or battery supply issues, the other manucturers of BEV pickups will not have any trouble ramping production. The real problem is that they don't want to sell BEV's in high volume because every BEV sale is one less sale of their profitable ICE products. They still haven't become lean enough to sell BEV's profitably, especially with Tesla offering more for less.

I am in agreement that FSD developments are not closely tied to CT Rollout. That said maybe non FSD orders will go out first to avoid having to replace a $300 chipset in 6 months of delivery.
That's not going to happen. Tesla sells the most profitable versions first in order to fund the expense of ramping production. In this case that would be Tri-motor with FSD. If the Tri-motor powertrain is not ready or they have limited battery supply they might roll-out Dual Motor with FSD orders first. But in no case would they prioritize non-FSD orders.

People make too big of a deal about the specific hardware version. At a cost of $10K, Tesla sales of FSD will still be wildly profitable even after subtracting the expense of plugging in new FSD computers and, if necessary, replacing eight cameras as well (retro-fitting latest FSD hardware at a later date).

But, if you are still worried about not getting the latest/greatest FSD hardware, just delay delivery until Ver. 4 is shipping. I'll gladly move up one space in line! 😍
 
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