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FutureBoy

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I only heard that the Cybertruck would get the hardware first. Like the Model 3 got the last iteration first, the first Model 3s had to be upgraded later. Tesla didn't hold back the cars for the FSD computers.

-Crissa
Good point actually. It sounded like the CT would be 1 year from now. But as you point out, the statement isn’t conclusive on that point. The next version of FSD hardware is stated to be about 1 year from now. The hardware is stated to be going into CTs first. But that doesn’t exclude some earlier date shipping of CTs with the current hardware.
 

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Well, with all your (and mine) desires to have CT ASAP, I think it would be wise to wait a little. Maybe after first few thousand at least. As we all know the first cars often have unforeseeable issues. My heart and my mind always fight over that 😱
I am around 4200 and will gladly take mine right away, even if it has the older HW. I also currently have one of the first 20k model S vehicles they built. I trust Tesla will put out a solid product, as that car, with 111k miles, still has fewer rattles and creaks than any other car I've ever driven.
 
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I only heard that the Cybertruck would get the hardware first. Like the Model 3 got the last iteration first, the first Model 3s had to be upgraded later. Tesla didn't hold back the cars for the FSD computers.

-Crissa
I think the statement “in a year or so” for CT was more due to 4680 than due to FSD. My memory is not that reliable these days but if I am not mistaking, it was about six months ago when he said 4680 should be ready for volume production in eighteen months.
 

rodmacpherson

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I think the statement “in a year or so” for CT was more due to 4680 than due to FSD. My memory is not that reliable these days but if I am not mistaking, it was about six months ago when he said 4680 should be ready for volume production in eighteen months.
Yes, My take on that comment last night was that in Elon's mind he's already said that CT would be starting roll out next summer, and that FSD on HW4 would be around that same time.

From a presentation we had at work a while back, before the whole pandemic thing, about managers helping staff to deal with change in the workplace... the folks at the top meet and discuss and bat about ideas then make a decision. By the time they have made a decision they have all been immersed in the idea for a while. Long enough that they are now used to it being the new normal for them. When they let the people below them know about the decision they need to realize that this is new info for those people, and that it will take some time for them to adjust.
How does this relate to Elon and CT timelines? To him he's so used to the idea that CT is a 2022 product and that it won't be shipping to customers till probably Q2 or Q3. To him, having staff update the web site to say you will be able to pick your final options in 2022 "as production nears" means he's already told us all that we shouldn't expect to see one in our driveway at the end of 2021 or even in Q1 2022 as it usually takes a few months between picking options and delivery.
He's been talking about this among Tesla people for months. This is old news to Elon. We are lower than the lowest ranked Tesla employee on the communication ladder. No one has told us when exactly they expect to see a roll out, but Elon himself has had ages to adjust to the idea that the CT product line is going to be a mid 2022 thing. That is why he just casually says HW 4 will probably be in about a year, rolling out at the same time as CT, like we all should know CT will roll out next summer.
 

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That is why he just casually says HW 4 will probably be in about a year, rolling out at the same time as CT, like we all should know CT will roll out next summer.
As long as I'm in my N64 truck before next harvest, I'm good.
 

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As long as I'm in my N64 truck before next harvest, I'm good.
I received my official Mattel Hot Wheels Cybertruck "Trainer Model" in the mail today. Gonna go out on the driveway and snap a picture and Inform my son I have a Cybertruck in the driveway and see how fast he gets here.
 

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I think the statement “in a year or so” for CT was more due to 4680 than due to FSD. My memory is not that reliable these days but if I am not mistaking, it was about six months ago when he said 4680 should be ready for volume production in eighteen months.
Tesla will not be risking a lot to hit a timeline. They want near perfect manufacturing efficiency and zero recalls. They want margins to match what they are achieving on the Y. With the bang for the buck that we are getting they need to be perfect on the rollout. As long as the competition is not producing in volume the pent up demand will continue and Tesla has little risk with the delay.

At this point, Tesla is as good as anybody with a new vehicle roll out. The competition will have equal or greater problems ramping production.

I am in agreement that FSD developments are not closely tied to CT Rollout. That said maybe non FSD orders will go out first to avoid having to replace a $300 chipset in 6 months of delivery.
 

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As someone who is hoping for a sooner delivery of a Cybertruck to my driveway, that comment made my heat skip a beat. But based on the way he said it so nonchalantly, I really don't think Elon was slipping in there an announcement that the Cybertruck is further delayed.

On the other hand, I'm having trouble making sense of it any other way. One explanation is that there are two main components to hardware 4, the Ver. 4 FSD computer and Ver 4 camerashe did say FSD 4 included new cameras). It could be Cybertruck will start production with the new cameras but as he was saying that he realized his comment would set expectations for FSD 4 chips early next year so he clarified it by adding on "later next year". Then, early production Cybertrucks would get a FSD computer upgrade (but only for vehicles ordered with FSD) while all Cybertrucks will have ver. 4 camera hardware.
Elon really doesn’t seem to like his assets sitting idle. Quite the opposite. They seem to be cranking out model y parts in Texas before the roof is even complete.
That being said I find it very hard to believe they would spend hundreds of millions on part of a factory that was going to sit idle. I am torn though between thinking that they may start to produce the CT with older hardware just to get it going then offer to upgrade it later at a large cost vs. if they just waited to put their latest tech in at the advertised cost.
 

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They had to upgrade some of the Model 3s that came out before the FSD v3 hardware was ready.

Advantage paying the full FSD price: You get free hardware upgrades.

-Crissa
That will very likely change. They are already trying to charge people to upgrade to new FSD hardware. I think we will see future FSD purchases lock you in to the hardware that came with your vehicle when you bought FSD. And then to upgrade hardware required as new FSD software comes out you will need to pay to upgrade. It seems like the open source give stuff away for free Elon of the past is fading away and the industrialized and calloused Tesla that needs to see solid profits is what the future looks like. And really that’s fair.
 

ecotrials

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Last night when answering a question about the next FSD Computer version, Elon said it would be ready in about a year. Then he said it would go into the cybertruck.
WHAT? Does this mean we are a YEAR away from first deliveries? Yikes!

I will be patient, not happy, just patient. I am not interested in any other vehicle than the trimotor (mostly for range when towing). I'm guessing a toy hauler trailer ~5000ish pounds is going to at least halve the range, so perhaps 250 - 300ish miles while towing.

The ok news is it will have the latest FSD hardware. Hang in everyone.
 

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Yeah I think Q3 2022 is a realistic estimate.
 

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I wouldn't necessarily stack those two statements, except to say that pretty much every Cybertruck will have the then-latest FSD hardware. Tesla doesn't build a lot of vehicles with designs it has left behind. This could mean that an early trimotor has a different FSD hardware suite than a later one.
Batteries, I think, will remain the key dependency. Oh, yeah, and how do you manufacture that stainless steel origami thing at scale...
 
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