RVAC

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For what?

You need to specify if you're estimating the first one off the line, when you get yours, when production ramps to 1000/week or what.
First customer deliveries.
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Jhodgesatmb

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First customer deliveries.
I hope that you are wrong, I really do. We have been waiting since November 2019 and as much as I want the CT to be the best it can be I also want it while I am still able to enjoy it. I wouldn’t blame Tesla for a nine-month delay in the start of production but I don’t see him being that far off. Until a couple months ago he was sticking to late 2021.
 

Ogre

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Until a couple months ago he was sticking to late 2021.
In February he said “if we’re lucky, we’ll ship by year end”. Not exactly a statement you make when you are confident of hitting a deadline. He’s also been evasive when asked about Cybertruck time lines in the months since.

I hope it’s not a year out also. Just preparing myself for the possibility.
 

HaulingAss

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First customer deliveries.
It will probably be before Q3 but there are lots of things that could potentially delay it so we will see.

As far as when most of us who have reserved get theirs, what's more important is how quickly Tesla is able to ramp to volume production. Let's hope for a quick ramp!
 

RVAC

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I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it can be less than a year. James summed it up nicely:

If you've been following CT developments recently, this shouldn't have been a shock. 4680's, Elon saying CT production would be "hard," no sign of 8 ton giga press... we're AT LEAST a year out.
Also retrofitting cameras is just not going to happen, far too labor intensive.
 

Throwcomputer

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I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it can be less than a year. James summed it up nicely:



Also retrofitting cameras is just not going to happen, far too labor intensive.
There was zero mention of new camera hardware upgrades. The discussion revolved around updating the FSD computer hardware. This was shown to be essentially a single PCI card. Labor intensive it is not.

In fact, it was specifically asked about designing or updating the camera technology and Musk outright said there were no current plans to design or upgrade the cameras because they have quite a bit of "bandwidth" left in the existing cameras to achieve his FSD level targets. This means the resolution of the cameras, nor the framerate or the data transfer from the cameras is not a hindrance to any of the processes they run on the live feeds for the neural network server or the FSD computer in car.
 
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There was zero mention of new camera hardware upgrades.
Actually, there was >0 mentions of a new camera upgrade. I know that a single sentence isn’t very much but it is greater than zero.

And the one sentence was very clear and specific.

Answer (Elon):
Well, with hardware 4, we will have a next-generation camera.
You can find this quote in the answer to the last question. See the video at 2:12:04.

 

Throwcomputer

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Actually, there was >0 mentions of a new camera upgrade. I know that a single sentence isn’t very much but it is greater than zero.

And the one sentence was very clear and specific.



You can find this quote in the answer to the last question. See the video at 2:12:04.
I stand corrected about the one mention, but at another point in the qa, he says what i mentioned above about current camera technology being sufficient to achieve level 5 fsd and so he sees no reason to improve the camera technology. Maybe he's including this new camera hardware you mention in his statement about current camera technology, or maybe he misspoke in either of the two answers we are discussing.

Sorry i won't be going searching through the 45 minutes of qa to find the exact time of my reference. :)
 

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Hardware 4 may require better hardware while older hardware wouldn’t be able to handle it
 
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FutureBoy

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I stand corrected about the one mention, but at another point in the qa, he says what i mentioned above about current camera technology being sufficient to achieve level 5 fsd and so he sees no reason to improve the camera technology. Maybe he's including this new camera hardware you mention in his statement about current camera technology, or maybe he misspoke in either of the two answers we are discussing.

Sorry i won't be going searching through the 45 minutes of qa to find the exact time of my reference. :)
I agree that he is pretty clear that he believes FSD can be fully implemented with the current cameras and current hardware. One thread throughout was that with the current hardware he believes FSD can get to be 300 times better than human drivers. Not sure how he defines that measure but 300 times is his estimated upper limit on the current hardware abilities.

He then makes a distinction for the next version of the hardware. The next version is estimated to be able to get to over 1000 times better than humans. To get this improved level will require the hardware upgrade. He also mentions that the upgraded camera is part of the hardware upgrade. But he does not specifically state if the camera upgrade is required for the improved FSD skill or if the camera upgrade is just being done because cameras will be better and cheaper over time so the upgrade is just part of the tech march.

Personally, I want the upgraded cameras so that Teslacam videos are clearer to watch and things like license plates and faces are more easily distinguishable. Even if FSD doesn’t make full utilization of the camera abilities, my eyes would like better clarity and pixel density.

The fact that Elon says these upgrades are coming to the Cybertruck first is icing on the cake. We’ll be getting the most advanced future truck with the most advanced hardware with the most skillful FSD. I really think Elon is half doing all this for Cybertruck because it’s the vehicle he wants to drive so he is adding in all the features that he wants personally.
 

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I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it can be less than a year. James summed it up nicely:



Also retrofitting cameras is just not going to happen, far too labor intensive.
another thing I’m curious about is testing. Is Tesla doing this now? There really are so many unanswered questions.
 

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Not even they can match the value offered by Cybertruck
This, to me, is so overlooked. Cybertruck beats F150 lightning, for example, in just about every category. This is especially true when you take into account you probably won’t pay sticker because of dealer markups. See: Ford Bronco
 

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