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davelloydbrown

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One could argue that the “lesson” should be believing Elon in a non-binding, non-contractual situation. We can debate the price of steel all day; there was never, ever any chance of Cybertruck launching at the prices referenced in 2019. It truly shocks me that people are just now realizing it.
Yeah people were expecting a 10-20% increase, but with the price of all the other vehicles coming down significantly, I don't believe anyone was expecting 50-60l% increases. Do you remember what happened when Rivian increased their prices to reservation holders???
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at least, I would bet that after the initial demand that demand will be less than 100 k at these prices. Ask Rivian.
The interview with top gear host and the VP of engineering and with franz, they mentioned that to keep the truck affordable they did run through options to remove the powered tonneau and I would assume they also talked about removing other pricey equipment like the suspension system or powered frunk probably. That suspension is probably $8k by itself.
 

davelloydbrown

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Rivian vs Cybertruck data

GANqJweXcAABCPS.png

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GANjZzIXEAIUu9p.png
so the CT was introduced in 2019 to come out in 2021, Rivian actually got it produced in 2021, so tesla had an extra two years to become more efficient and cost effective than Rivian, but basically they are the same vehicles (minus the stainless steel). Perhaps tesla is loosing its edge and I should sell my tesla stock and buy Rivian.
 

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with the dropping prices of the x, s, 3 and y, I was hoping that Elon would try to keep the prices at least within 10-20% of the original prices but 40-50% increases is really a hit to his loyal fans
it’s more expensive not just because of inflation…they poured a ton of new technology and features. Hopefully they will be able to reduce prices in 2025, I want to see more them driving around. Tbh getting the first few will be annoying AF because ppl will be asking a bunch of questions all the time.
 


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When trying to make a point, I think clarity and brevity are key. I don't know if I can do that regarding what happened yesterday, to include some of the comments here since then.

I don't own an EV. I've only driven 3/4 ton and 1/2 ton trucks with 8' or 6.5' ft beds for the last 24+ years and I was not even close to interested in the EV trucks on the horizon until the 19' reveal of the CT. My interest had little to do with the wedge design and SS exterior, except that we were told those features played a key role in being able to produce a 500+ mile range full-size truck at a competitive price to ICE. I made my reservation in within 24hrs of the reveal for the tri-motor because of the price and range listed for it.

I was an honest sceptic about my concerns. I've been on this forum for several years. I've mentioned that as an ICE truck owner, I felt range was still king if Tesla is going to try to convert ICE owners; I have concerns with battery degradation over time discussing my ICE loss of range (very very little except when adding 35s...but even then I still get over 500 miles); concerns with optimal battery charge ranges to maintain the stated battery range for as long as possible and was told don't worry about the battery warranty not being good enough because the real world battey longevity performace shows the warranty isn't needed. But...there's always a but; even then I should expect some degration well beyond the ICE range losses over a 10 yr period. Additionally I mentioned concerns with the charging infrastructure today and insurance costs for the CT. I was told repeatedly Tesla underpromises and over delivers. I was told the infrastructure is expanding rapidly. I was told not to believe my lying eyes because my 80k-140k mileage, 6-9 yr old truck is costing me much more in gas and maintetance then what my checking account is telling me.

My hope in the CT held strong. I believed the hype that Tesla was going to build the first ever full size truck that would appeal to the masses out of the gate and not be a niche offering. I pushed back against the naysayers when they said it was going to be 30-40-50-60% more expensive. I believe I was even the first to make the arguement that although Tesla can't plan for everything I'm sure they built in some level inflation protection when they released their price 2 years before their projected delivery and before they even had a factory! To not do so would simply be fool hearty and Tesla aint no fools. I have told everyone and thier moms that I am buying the CT because it makes economical sense over a 10yr period.

Then came the 11/30/2023 delivery event.

340 miles for $80k...Non-starter due to range, so the price doesn't matter to me. My stance from day 1 has not changed. 500 or bust (or at least very close to that as an EPA stated range) because of optimal charge ranges, degration, and a lacking infrastructure, and dare I say Tesla's differnt way of determing their range that seems to inflate their numbers just a bit.

Oh but wait. What is this I see in the corner...
470+ miles with a range extender!!! Sweet! But it's going to cost you $16k so now the minimum price for almost acceptable range is $96k, vs 500+ miles for $70k at the reveal..and by the way this is not even for the tri-motor; oh and also btw it is not a larger battery pack, it is an add on pack that must be factory installed into your now very lumpy bed, so you'll lose a very large portion of an already relatively small bed for a full size truck to get to 470+. Non-starter.

This is not me saying to Tesla; in the words of EM, Go F#@! Yourself! Go F#@! Yourself! Am I clear?. (I was watching that live. It was great TV.) I still like the CT. I'm not cancelling. I'm still holding out hope...just as I am with the 500 mile RAM REV. Just don't ask me to finalize my reservation until it's significantly more reasonabley priced per mile of usable range.

I really dig the steer by wire. It might be my favorite feature of the truck. Thank you for keeping the the 35s standard (it would look terrible with anything less). The adjustable air suspension and 4 wheel steering will be super comfortable and convenient. I'm also really glad they improved on the battery warranty!

I'm a little stunned the rear window doesn't have access to the bed. I do not mean I'm suprised it is not a mid-gate. I never thought the mid-gate was going to happen. Just suprised the window seems fixed in place. Didn't EM say (yeah, I know he says alot of things) the vault would have heating and cooling? I did not think he meant via a plug-in portable heater or A/C unit. Also suprised an on-board air compressor isn't avaible. I laughed a little when I read the charging speed on the new CT page, " 128 miles in 15 minutes". I can add 128 miles worth of gas in about 1 minute with my current 15 MPG truck. But whatever; it's progress and as terrible, and long, as that 15 minutes will seem, it's tolerable if and when needed, and it is definitly a cheaper 128 miles.

Oh and yes I also recieved the email from Tesla saying I'm in the cue and offering $1k off something else to hold me over while waiting. Unfortuneately they don't offer anything else I'm interested in at this time.
 

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Nothing about Hardware Four? Are we getting the fancy computer?
 

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So, I'm slogging through 28 pages of posts in less than 24 hours. I am searching for the reason behind the pricing. At (rounded) $80k and $100k, the chart below shows that you eliminate 70% of the public as potential consumers. Drop the price 10-15K and you add another 32% of the population. So, maybe, the pricing is to minimize the order/delivery ratio for the first year or two, and then a reduction helps maintain a full reservation log?

Screenshot 2023-10-25 at 4.21.06 PM.png
That chart really shows you why it was priced the original way. You're absolutely right that they went this high to try trim customers. They wouldn't be able to meet demand at previous pricing, so keep it high and make more profit while you figure out production of the vehicle and the cell. I think they'll eventually go back to original pricing, but it'll be a year or so. At least, that's my hope. They could pivot when their $25k model starts production at that time. By pivot, I mean, use those cells for the cheap one and keep cybertruck production exactly where it's at right now. We'll see
 

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They don’t have to. Attrition will take 50% off the list by the time their number comes up. Reasons don’t matter, it’s just life. I’m at 150,000 but I’m planning for 75,000.
I'd plan higher if that's where you're at in the queue. Half it again. :)
 

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so the CT was introduced in 2019 to come out in 2021, Rivian actually got it produced in 2021, so tesla had an extra two years to become more efficient and cost effective than Rivian, but basically they are the same vehicles (minus the stainless steel). Perhaps tesla is loosing its edge and I should sell my tesla stock and buy Rivian.
I don't think that I would characterize it exactly like that. That last 24 hrs has shown that they did a lot of engineering, planning, and lining up things like accessories. The perspective, at a high level, could be internals (engineering - 48v, etc) vs externals (what users sees - seats, legroom, etc [ignoring the obvious SS]). I'm more impressed today than I was before.

I'm a fan of Rivian and have been an early adopter for a number of years (GM Volt, Tesla TMX) but not sure I want to go through some of the challenges again.

I'm an investor in TSLA for a lot more than just their vehicles (ie. storage). Anyway, you likely were just pulling my leg.
 


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Agreed except:
it's not to make more profit by presenting high prices; it's here to reduce loss. Every single CT rolled off the line in the first year or two or even three, brings in net loss, 10k plus loss each, not a dime of profit, even at the current price.
Managerial accounting tells us that most of these captial expenses, design, tooling, jiggs and fixtures, overhead, R&D, regulation, patents, testings, anything dedicated to CT project alone, will have to be allocated to the finished goods, stretching over a period of time. It's an accounting practice and also a tax topic, not a cash flow issue though - Tesla currently does not have that problem. Therefore at least on paper, it's a loss. Investors care about this number and will watch closely when CT will break even.
Musk by all means is first a sneaky slimy businessman (ahole), then an outstanding programmer and engineer, finally something else you've been dreaming about.



That chart really shows you why it was priced the original way. You're absolutely right that they went this high to try trim customers. They wouldn't be able to meet demand at previous pricing, so keep it high and make more profit while you figure out production of the vehicle and the cell. I think they'll eventually go back to original pricing, but it'll be a year or so. At least, that's my hope. They could pivot when their $25k model starts production at that time. By pivot, I mean, use those cells for the cheap one and keep cybertruck production exactly where it's at right now. We'll see
 
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I am with you 100%. In the same boat. Keep my reservation for the tri and see what happens.
Two things must happen for me to jump in again:
1. 500 miles or close. 450 would do. F---K that range extender. What a horse sh--t load of F joke!
2. Price drop of the Tri after Tesla collects boat load of subsidies from the early adopters. This will follow a similar curve of Model X or CT will be selling the same crappy volume as Model X, which is a great vehicle but will remain a great vechile with crappy volume, indefinitely.

On the side note, Musk has a thing of making features absolutely uncessary yet he insists it as his own brand, such as the chicken wings on Model X, no door handle on CT, etc. It's almost like a by product coming with these great products.

My sincerest advice: keep that 100K and buy some CD, treasury bond whatever and collect 5% APR, instead of forking out 5% intestest car loan to buy this thing at this point.



When trying to make a point, I think clarity and brevity are key. I don't know if I can do that regarding what happened yesterday, to include some of the comments here since then.

I don't own an EV. I've only driven 3/4 ton and 1/2 ton trucks with 8' or 6.5' ft beds for the last 24+ years and I was not even close to interested in the EV trucks on the horizon until the 19' reveal of the CT. My interest had little to do with the wedge design and SS exterior, except that we were told those features played a key role in being able to produce a 500+ mile range full-size truck at a competitive price to ICE. I made my reservation in within 24hrs of the reveal for the tri-motor because of the price and range listed for it.

I was an honest sceptic about my concerns. I've been on this forum for several years. I've mentioned that as an ICE truck owner, I felt range was still king if Tesla is going to try to convert ICE owners; I have concerns with battery degradation over time discussing my ICE loss of range (very very little except when adding 35s...but even then I still get over 500 miles); concerns with optimal battery charge ranges to maintain the stated battery range for as long as possible and was told don't worry about the battery warranty not being good enough because the real world battey longevity performace shows the warranty isn't needed. But...there's always a but; even then I should expect some degration well beyond the ICE range losses over a 10 yr period. Additionally I mentioned concerns with the charging infrastructure today and insurance costs for the CT. I was told repeatedly Tesla underpromises and over delivers. I was told the infrastructure is expanding rapidly. I was told not to believe my lying eyes because my 80k-140k mileage, 6-9 yr old truck is costing me much more in gas and maintetance then what my checking account is telling me.

My hope in the CT held strong. I believed the hype that Tesla was going to build the first ever full size truck that would appeal to the masses out of the gate and not be a niche offering. I pushed back against the naysayers when they said it was going to be 30-40-50-60% more expensive. I believe I was even the first to make the arguement that although Tesla can't plan for everything I'm sure they built in some level inflation protection when they released their price 2 years before their projected delivery and before they even had a factory! To not do so would simply be fool hearty and Tesla aint no fools. I have told everyone and thier moms that I am buying the CT because it makes economical sense over a 10yr period.

Then came the 11/30/2023 delivery event.

340 miles for $80k...Non-starter due to range, so the price doesn't matter to me. My stance from day 1 has not changed. 500 or bust (or at least very close to that as an EPA stated range) because of optimal charge ranges, degration, and a lacking infrastructure, and dare I say Tesla's differnt way of determing their range that seems to inflate their numbers just a bit.

Oh but wait. What is this I see in the corner...
470+ miles with a range extender!!! Sweet! But it's going to cost you $16k so now the minimum price for almost acceptable range is $96k, vs 500+ miles for $70k at the reveal..and by the way this is not even for the tri-motor; oh and also btw it is not a larger battery pack, it is an add on pack that must be factory installed into your now very lumpy bed, so you'll lose a very large portion of an already relatively small bed for a full size truck to get to 470+. Non-starter.

This is not me saying to Tesla; in the words of EM, Go F#@! Yourself! Go F#@! Yourself! Am I clear?. (I was watching that live. It was great TV.) I still like the CT. I'm not cancelling. I'm still holding out hope...just as I am with the 500 mile RAM REV. Just don't ask me to finalize my reservation until it's significantly more reasonabley priced per mile of usable range.

I really dig the steer by wire. It might be my favorite feature of the truck. Thank you for keeping the the 35s standard (it would look terrible with anything less). The adjustable air suspension and 4 wheel steering will be super comfortable and convenient. I'm also really glad they improved on the battery warranty!

I'm a little stunned the rear window doesn't have access to the bed. I do not mean I'm suprised it is not a mid-gate. I never thought the mid-gate was going to happen. Just suprised the window seems fixed in place. Didn't EM say (yeah, I know he says alot of things) the vault would have heating and cooling? I did not think he meant via a plug-in portable heater or A/C unit. Also suprised an on-board air compressor isn't avaible. I laughed a little when I read the charging speed on the new CT page, " 128 miles in 15 minutes". I can add 128 miles worth of gas in about 1 minute with my current 15 MPG truck. But whatever; it's progress and as terrible, and long, as that 15 minutes will seem, it's tolerable if and when needed, and it is definitly a cheaper 128 miles.

Oh and yes I also recieved the email from Tesla saying I'm in the cue and offering $1k off something else to hold me over while waiting. Unfortuneately they don't offer anything else I'm interested in at this time.
 
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The elephant in the room is truly the battery. 4680 is supposed to have sufficient density to substantiate the 500mi range, and offer cost saving to support the price. It's boasted as the biggest thing 4 years ago and would change everything and leave everybody in the dust. 4 years later, it's not happening. What you can get, is a big ass chunky "range extender" on the bed, $16K, which still doesn't get you close to 500 mi. All these Youtubers, including Sandy Munro, NowYouKnow, Farzad, Dave Lee, etc., have been deliberately avoding probing too much into the root cause. I don't care about bad news or good news, but honest fact based, intellligent analysis is what I respect deerly.
 

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admittedly, i try to do my own work rather than take Elon Musk's often loose marketing speech as my basis for decision. :ROFLMAO:

and at the same time, i was being quick and loose in my speech on first impressions, and doing some over-simplification. But to put more of a point on it:



Here's a 35" tire, which as you in particular will know isn't flus at 6' forward, but because of the sloping bulkhead instead extending say 40"" back. Note where the rearward most portion of the tire lay in respect to the bed floor panel seam.

1701450690517.png



Compare it then to the photo of the extender:

1701450804680.png


the extender is perhaps 3-5" shorter in it's extension towards the tailgate, so let's call it (based on our tire estimate) between (if 3") 37" or (if 5") 35" back from the bulkhead.

so, fair enough that my quick-fingered oversimplification was probably errored towards the aggressive, but not so wildly off that I don't have some reasonable doubts about the accuracy of Musk's off-cuff comments about 1/3 of the bed. Very arguably *closer* to 1/2 the bed, than it is closer to 1/3.

I should mention, too, that in the back of my mind are the implications of the net effect of usability of the bed. Which is to say, even if the thing took up only 1/3 of the linear bed floor, that does not mean it has merely a 1/3 reduction on the utility of the bed. This weighed in, though unstated, to my off-cuff assertion of 3' - really i meant, more like an effective length of... in terms of utility.


good question and thanks for asking. interested in your thoughts.
C,

First off, I gotta say, I love ya man. You had some pretty accurate intel, and only a couple things that weren't right. I give you mad props for inside intel. I'm glad you are on here and I read your posts with solid interest.

Yes, EM sometimes says things in a tweet that are "a touch off" the final answer. By the same token, all we are looking at are renders that could also be off. But yes, the render looks like a solid 2-1/2'. It is entirely possible that EM meant "Two feet and change" or "Less than 3', which is rounded to 2'" or something like that.

For me, I don't care. I don't tow long distances. I live in Southern California, where it seems like we have a supercharger on almost every offramp. My drive for work goes from 60 miles (round trip) to 120, depending on the airport. I will charge at home from solar. I'll leave every day with a "full tank of gas", which beats what I currently do. I see all the hand wringing about falling short of "promises", and I truly don't get it. From my seat, this is what I have...

The Standard (most closely aligned with the DM at initial launch) had a 300+ mile expectation. That was met. It meets it's 0-60 time, armored glass, 3mm SS, non-frame and body construction. it ,meets almost every item with the exception of a compressor outlet (although, he just promised a compressor, and it has that, just not for use other than the suspension) and the price. Conversely, it has SbW, 4WS, 110 and 220 outlets, the option for additional range (like everything in life, there is a cost and compromise) and a few others. Is it close enough in price? That is an individual decision. For some yes, others no. The CyberBeast (most like the trimotor) with the extended range box is a few miles short of the range, but the 0-60 is faster. The towing is down from 14k to 11k, but it will certainly do the job at "higher weights". Then there is the price, which on the Beast is up there a bit. Then there is the RWD (single motor) which still has all the tech, and is/will be fairly affordable.

I've always wanted more Cyber than Truck. I haven't pulled my reservation. I'm nowhere near the front of the line, so I'll wait and see what happens to the pricing after the first year (or two). I'm still looking at the S Plaid, and the M3+ in whatever performance version they come up with. I don't have to make the decision today, and so I'm not going to. I like the CT, I'm holding out opinion on the price until I drive it and some time has passed. In spite of inflation, EVERY car Tesla makes is now less expensive than it was on release day. And, EVERY car that Tesla makes has better range and more features than on release day. I have no reason to believe the CT will be any different. I have options, and time to evaluate them.
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