Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,211
Reaction score
27,073
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
I assume the 2024 production run will be all Quads. Even though I reserved a TriMotor in November 2019, it was not the first day, so I figure I won't hear anything until early 2025. I will take a Quad - i.e. long range. I won't take a 300 mile Cybertruck. I would continue to wait.
That's not how Tesla handles model years or reservations.

Model year is usually when the model rolled from the factory. Sometimes it's a little late or a little early, but it's not a production run like traditional automakers.

Reservation holders will be contacted in order, in the geographical area being serviced - so like the Model Ys from Austin, they contacted pre-orders in the Austin area, and then branched out from there.

They don't generally care what model you reserved, especially if they're not producing it: they want to find a buyers so they contact anyone probable to fill out the configurator.

With the Model 3, they opened the configurator out to batches of reservations at a time.

-Crissa
Sponsored

 

Notla

Member
First Name
Lamar
Joined
Jan 8, 2022
Threads
6
Messages
18
Reaction score
38
Location
Georgia
Vehicles
Model 3
Country flag
The next time I get excited about the CT will be when I get THAT email! At my age-77- the clock is working against me.
I know what you mean. I just had my eight
The next time I get excited about the CT will be when I get THAT email! At my age-77- the clock is working against me.
I know what you mean. I just joined the 80 club.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,211
Reaction score
27,073
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
I would think it would be Dual motor. Less batteries which are their biggest constraint. Look at the ramp in Texas.
And yet they pushed the Model S Plaid over the other model. It's hard to say which they will choose.

-Crissa
 

intimidator

Well-known member
First Name
TJ
Joined
Nov 16, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
675
Reaction score
919
Location
Alexandria, VA
Vehicles
2023 Ford Lariat Lightning
Country flag
That's not how Tesla handles model years or reservations.

Model year is usually when the model rolled from the factory. Sometimes it's a little late or a little early, but it's not a production run like traditional automakers.

Reservation holders will be contacted in order, in the geographical area being serviced - so like the Model Ys from Austin, they contacted pre-orders in the Austin area, and then branched out from there.

They don't generally care what model you reserved, especially if they're not producing it: they want to find a buyers so they contact anyone probable to fill out the configurator.

With the Model 3, they opened the configurator out to batches of reservations at a time.

-Crissa
Even though I reserved in November 2019, I still don't think I will be contacted until they after they have delivered about 100,000 Cybertrucks.....which I think will be deep into 2024. But I will be ready! Just around the corner LOL.
 

Coolbreeze704

Well-known member
First Name
Bruce
Joined
Nov 23, 2019
Threads
15
Messages
1,399
Reaction score
3,743
Location
Troutman,NC
Vehicles
2022 Model Y, 23 Lightning, CyberTruck (someday)
Occupation
GM Manufactured Homes
Country flag
And yet they pushed the Model S Plaid over the other model. It's hard to say which they will choose.

-Crissa
True, just think ramping 4680's are a different kind of constraint as we wait for Panasonic and I think LG come on line to supply also.
 


intimidator

Well-known member
First Name
TJ
Joined
Nov 16, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
675
Reaction score
919
Location
Alexandria, VA
Vehicles
2023 Ford Lariat Lightning
Country flag
Given the fact that there is an additional model in the mix (quad motor)... your choice at time of reservation is meaningless. Its only logical to assume the reservation order (possibly limited by location) will define when you get the option to finalize order, which effectively throws everyone back into a realistic list while also allows everyone to re-evaluate their desired model choice now that there is an additional model that didn't exist when most of us chose at time of reservation.

I don't subscribe to this prevalent theory on here that your model choice at reservation defines your delivery order. Because if it did, implementing a new model after a huge amount of reservations have been made already, kinda breaks that system.
I guess none of us really knows what Tesla will do. We are just speculating.

My WAG (wild ass guess) is that they will build Quads first. Elon did say that at one time. There was a hint they wouldn't even build the Tri-Motors. And probably not the Single motors.

And I get that. Elon has said he wants to simplify production, not complicate it. Limiting it to two variants would make sense.

Next we can speculate on the cost! (But no one knows what the price will be in 2024) Some want to believe there will be a $40,000 version (I don't). I think the Quad will be pushing the $80,000 range. Not sure where a possible Dual Motor would fall. Maybe $65,000?
 

intimidator

Well-known member
First Name
TJ
Joined
Nov 16, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
675
Reaction score
919
Location
Alexandria, VA
Vehicles
2023 Ford Lariat Lightning
Country flag
I would think it would be Dual motor. Less batteries which are their biggest constraint. Look at the ramp in Texas.
Could be.

Although at one time Tesla/Elon said they were going to produce the Quad motors first (and hinted that there were no longer be a Tri-Motor version).

They could change of course. After waiting all this time, I am going to wait for a version that has at least 400 miles of range. I would prefer the original projected range of 500 miles for the Tri-Motor though.
 

Jhodgesatmb

Well-known member
First Name
Jack
Joined
Dec 1, 2019
Threads
63
Messages
4,910
Reaction score
7,091
Location
San Francisco Bay area
Website
www.arbor-studios.com
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y LR, Tesla Model 3 LR
Occupation
Retired AI researcher
Country flag
I have two tri-motor full self driving on order. I really don't expect to ever get them. The one thing we know about Elon is that he does not make his commitments and gets distracted easily. He is just a frontman for the brands, but he has hired smart people. In general, I would also hope that if the Cybertrucks do get built, they do not come out with the fit and finish problems his current vehicles have.
Love your attitude and your way-behind-the-times comment about fit and finish.
 

intimidator

Well-known member
First Name
TJ
Joined
Nov 16, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
675
Reaction score
919
Location
Alexandria, VA
Vehicles
2023 Ford Lariat Lightning
Country flag
True, just think ramping 4680's are a different kind of constraint as we wait for Panasonic and I think LG come on line to supply also.
I wonder if at battery day Elon had any idea ramping the 4680 would be such a challenge, i.e. taking longer than hoped.

Battery Day was September of 2020 I believe. Soon it will be the 2 year anniversary. The whole world is behind on a lot of things. I hope LG, Pansonic, Tesla, et. al. make progress on increasing the supply of 4680s.
 


Bjorneo

Active member
First Name
Bjorn
Joined
Feb 1, 2022
Threads
2
Messages
25
Reaction score
33
Location
PNW
Vehicles
'12 Tundra, '15 Forester, '16 Fusion, '87 911 Cab
Occupation
Retired Software Exec
Country flag
I know what you mean. I just had my eight

I know what you mean. I just joined the 80 club.
Thank you I feel younger already!! Glad to see there are oldsters wishing to grab onto leading edge tech!
 

Coolbreeze704

Well-known member
First Name
Bruce
Joined
Nov 23, 2019
Threads
15
Messages
1,399
Reaction score
3,743
Location
Troutman,NC
Vehicles
2022 Model Y, 23 Lightning, CyberTruck (someday)
Occupation
GM Manufactured Homes
Country flag

Jhodgesatmb

Well-known member
First Name
Jack
Joined
Dec 1, 2019
Threads
63
Messages
4,910
Reaction score
7,091
Location
San Francisco Bay area
Website
www.arbor-studios.com
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y LR, Tesla Model 3 LR
Occupation
Retired AI researcher
Country flag
I guess none of us really knows what Tesla will do. We are just speculating.

My WAG (wild ass guess) is that they will build Quads first. Elon did say that at one time. There was a hint they wouldn't even build the Tri-Motors. And probably not the Single motors.

And I get that. Elon has said he wants to simplify production, not complicate it. Limiting it to two variants would make sense.

Next we can speculate on the cost! (But no one knows what the price will be in 2024) Some want to believe there will be a $40,000 version (I don't). I think the Quad will be pushing the $80,000 range. Not sure where a possible Dual Motor would fall. Maybe $65,000?
I agree that we are all doing the WAG thing. It is a mistake to make guesses on cost because the world is all messed up right now. You would have to change your guess daily or even hourly. The one thing that stood out from that meeting was when he said that they (all automakers) are striving to keep their factories open. I cannot imagine the CT being more than a blip on his radar right now. That said, at the TED talk in April he said volume production in 2023 and in this one he said start of production in Q2 2023. Those statements are contradictory and the more recent is another delay so that is depressing.
 

Jhodgesatmb

Well-known member
First Name
Jack
Joined
Dec 1, 2019
Threads
63
Messages
4,910
Reaction score
7,091
Location
San Francisco Bay area
Website
www.arbor-studios.com
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y LR, Tesla Model 3 LR
Occupation
Retired AI researcher
Country flag
I was assuming around March back when everyone was hopeful that the IDRA machine might get delivered by September (press+6mos seems like a reasonable guidepost). Heard today that's more likely to be October or so. Therefore mid-23 seems a reasonable estimate.

I wonder when we'll see alpha/beta vehicles (as opposed to the current prototypes that I consider pre-alpha). Should be an exciting 12 months!
The current crop are alphas according to Tesla.
 

Coolbreeze704

Well-known member
First Name
Bruce
Joined
Nov 23, 2019
Threads
15
Messages
1,399
Reaction score
3,743
Location
Troutman,NC
Vehicles
2022 Model Y, 23 Lightning, CyberTruck (someday)
Occupation
GM Manufactured Homes
Country flag
Could be.

Although at one time Tesla/Elon said they were going to produce the Quad motors first (and hinted that there were no longer be a Tri-Motor version).

They could change of course. After waiting all this time, I am going to wait for a version that has at least 400 miles of range. I would prefer the original projected range of 500 miles for the Tri-Motor though.
I have a feeling all stated ranges from the reveal will be exceeded. Dual motor was 300 at that time I believe. I bet it will be closer to 400 then 300.
Sponsored

 
 




Top