PilotPete

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Some questions and details I'm curious about:

HVAC to bed for camping via rear window or rear vent
Doesn’t appear to be any.

Payload capacity (3500 as stated in 2019?)
Possible, or at least in the neighborhood.

Clearance for sharp turns with a 5th wheel style trailer over the bed side-walls
Don’t know, haven’t seen a CT with a gooseneck or 5th wheel. My assumption is; “depends on the trailer”

Ground clearance measured at lowest and highest
Lowest? No idea. Possibly as low as 6 or 8 inches. Highest? We don’t know. But 14.5 has recent rumors to be a safe bet

Rear steering turning radius. Example backing up a trailer.
Elon‘s words were; “possibly as tight as a Model Y”

Steer by wire ?
In the realm of probability, at least the rear. There are some that saw a recent video that appears to confirm it. But it’s not a 100% confirmation.

Front approach attack and rear departure angles for off-roading
that goes hand in hand with wheelbase, total length, ride height. No clue yet.

Lights:
Lightbar at top of windshield under the glass like 2019 reveal
Probably not. Although there appears to be an accessory that mounts the same strip on the outside at the peak. Why? We don’t know for sure, but stupid California laws appear to be at blame.

Towing:
Can a hitch ball be bolted directly into a hole in the rear bumper for lighter loads without needing a 2” receiver-style hitch?
Not a clue

Trailer light wiring plug or add after-market
We;ve seen pictures that make it appear there is a plug in the back to make life easy.

Winch mounting area
This one I know for sure. You can mount your wench in either the front seats, back seats, or in the vault. It’s up to you. But it’s probably best that you don’t let her hear you call her a wench. Unless you guys have a kind of Renn Faire relationship. For one of those electric cable things, haven’t seen one on an RC, so we wait..

Frunk and bed electric outlets
Nothing sure yet. Appears the frunk might be left out of it, while there is some evidence of something on the side near the back fo the bed. But like everything., nothing final.

Tire size
35” diameter tires on 20” rims. Not sure what is standard and what is an option. It appears Goodyear and Pirelli are making custom tires for the CT.

Curb rash and off-road rock risk (Is tire wider than rim or plastic wheel cover?)
One version is, and one version isn’t. Not sure what will be offered, and if there will be options, but the magic 8 ball said “entirely possible”

Side mirrors removable (easy access panel to unbolt it?)
There was a comment by Elon that they should/would be, no word past that.

Is there space for a small display screen just inside the left and right A-pillar (inside cabin) so side-camera can display after external mirrors are removed? Will these screens be available after-market
With the dash as big as it seems to be, there may be room for an 85” display on each side. There is a company that is offering small displays (not CT specific) for cars/trucks.

Door opening buttons or fingerprint reader or code? (maybe just a release button like on the interior) I assume Bluetooth proximity activates open button.
There appears to be “something” on the pillars at the doors that appears to assist in opening the doors. And the app should do it. We don’t know

Emergency door handle access from outside for rescue?
Unknown.

Air compressor auto-deflate and inflate tires
Probably not, but maybe? Has not been see or demonstrated.

Tailgate:
Measurements (with a tape measure) of bed width and length
If you find out, please tell us!

Close-up of mounting points for rooftop cargo rack
There are a few pictures of racks mounted, and the mounting points, but they are covered.

Is the top edge of the tailgate replaceable when dented or scratched from a load?
Everything is replaceable. As is everyone.

Water drainage from bed
I recommend you don’t wet your bed. Especially enough to need “drainage”.

Tailgate integrated steps or ramp
Don’t know, but doubtful

Can tailgate drop down at a low angle, not just stop flat with bed
At one time we were told the back could drop and the front rise, but I don’t think we have seen a demo of that with any of the release candidates.

L-channel close-up and example using it with tie-downs
We have seen the L Channel being used.

Tailgate motorized or just soft dampened lowering but manual raising
This we know for certain. It’s either one or the other.

Accessories
They will have a team, and 3rd parties will make them.

Wiper blade sizes to change (two or three standard blade replacements)
Q:How many psychiatrists does it take to change the wiper blade in the BAW?
A: One, but the wiper has to really want to change.
See my best assumptions. Nothing more known. But on Dec 1 (the day after Nov 30th) we will all know a lot more… Some of the answers are a bit flip, some are vague, but we don’t know a whole lot for sure, and we are just 3 weeks away from knowing more. So hang in there with the rest of us.
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newwave1331

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They already paid more than that. They were some of the highest paying fast-food chain.

If they said this, they're lying.

-Crissa
I did not mention pay. That's only one component of the bill..... back to cybertruck
 

Knucklehead

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So we gotta have 'em.

-Crissa
Way too off topic to get into a deep philosophical discussion regarding the role of government, but it is true that when the number of laws and regulations becomes so large and complex, it artificially drives up cost and makes it hard to do business even ethically.

We could debate this for days, but we both would rather discuss the CT.

I am looking forward to seeing your posts when you get your truck! It is an exciting time.
 
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See my best assumptions. Nothing more known. But on Dec 1 (the day after Nov 30th) we will all know a lot more… Some of the answers are a bit flip, some are vague, but we don’t know a whole lot for sure, and we are just 3 weeks away from knowing more. So hang in there with the rest of us.
Thank you for your time responding... and the humor! I kinda knew/heard/assumed most of the same answers, but wanted to ask all the experts on this page!

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...expectations-on-q3-2023-call.9530/post-192612
 

Arctic_White

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"Success is never guaranteed (for them or Tesla), but there are some 800lb gorillas in the dark corners of this autopilot/FSD room that most folks have yet to notice** and will soon have some 'ah ha' moments.
**my business is in this space of edge compute / AI, and so I'm privy to at least a couple of these 800lb gorillas pipelines "


Who else has the same amount of relevant real-world data? PM me if it's too sensitive to discuss.
@cvalue13 , any update to my question that I had requested above?

I don't know who else has the data, the computer power, and the talent to actually beat Tesla to autonomy.

You claim that you have some knowledge in this area. Care to share?

Elon and the team have repeatedly said that they have competition for their EVs, which is true. But when it comes to FSD, they have also said that they are so far ahead that one needs a telescope to see who is in second place. Are they wrong? Or are they simply over-confident?
 


cvalue13

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I don't know who else has the data, the computer power, and the talent to actually beat Tesla to autonomy.
contractually (and professionally) unable to say. I’ll say it’s both unexpected, but also under our noses.


But when it comes to FSD, they have also said that they are so far ahead that one needs a telescope to see who is in second place. Are they wrong? Or are they simply over-confident?
Two ways I could interpret this.

(1) they’re looking at other auto manufacturers/autonomous companies, not in the right places.

(2) through corporate espionage, they know where to look, and are taking a philosophical position. But in this second scenario, the “being so far ahead” comments I take combined on balanced with 10 years of saying they’re also “right around the corner.”
 

Arctic_White

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contractually (and professionally) unable to say. I’ll say it’s both unexpected, but also under our noses.




Two ways I could interpret this.

(1) they’re looking at other auto manufacturers/autonomous companies, not in the right places.

(2) through corporate espionage, they know where to look, and are taking a philosophical position. But in this second scenario, the “being so far ahead” comments I take combined on balanced with 10 years of saying they’re also “right around the corner.”
Interesting points.

Do you have any insights on the timelines for these other folks/competitions? How far along are they? Do they anticipate autonomous driving to be largely solved before the end of the decade, or is that information too unknown for them?

If you have followed Elon, you'll learn very quickly that he does the impossible, late. But if Tesla isn't the first to scale robotaxis then the value for TSLA isn't as high as what I have in my financial model.

So your post about other competitions has my full attention because it impacts me directly.
 

Arctic_White

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well, I don’t think they’ll be doing any material AutoPilot/FSD licensing anytime soon.

If that helps
Still, I gotta keep my eyes open.

From a North American perspective, I know that Apple, Google, *and* Amazon are all working towards solving autonomy.

I don't know about Chinese, as they seem to copy everything very well and have some super smart folks there.

Either way, I do agree that there will be others who will also solve autonomous driving but it's mostly about scale (to me). Licensing will happen eventually but the first-mover advantage is massive.
 


AlDente

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your margin concern is flawed, as none of the legacy manufacturers make profit on EV. for Tesla to make 10% is a testament to their business model.
Just because other BEV manufactures are losing money does not make a reduced profitability Tesla an attractive investment for the markets. They are currently being judged by their own high profit margin decline to single digits. Not the fact that other BEV's are losing significant money each vehicle sold. It all does not bode well for BEV adoption and makes investors nervous.
 

cvalue13

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your margin concern is flawed, as none of the legacy manufacturers make profit on EV. for Tesla to make 10% is a testament to their business model.
Just because other BEV manufactures are losing money does not make a reduced profitability Tesla an attractive investment for the markets. They are currently being judged by their own high profit margin decline to single digits. Not the fact that other BEV's are losing significant money each vehicle sold. It all does not bode well for BEV adoption and makes investors nervous.
not to mention, that quip above requires at looking only at one side of the balance sheet.

because the question for investors isn't what is Tesla's margin compared to Toyotas. The question is, what is the Tesla margin required for Tesla's marketcap to justify being 25X of Toyota's on a per-vehicle basis. Presumably, Tesla would require a roughly 25X margin to even achieve par.

To say nothing of the fact that these quips about "that tesla can make a margin is amazing" all UNIFORMALLY ignore that:

(1) they're comparing apples-to-oranges, in that you cant compare per-vehicle manufacturing margin (the stat they cite when it comes to Tesla) against company-wide net profit divided by units sold (what they cite when referring to Ford, et al), and

(2) when compared apples-to-apples Tesla spent it's first 12-18 years also "losing money" on every car sold (at a level of company-wide net profit/unit) ... all while having a market cap that makes this fact far more damning, in relative terms.

For some reason, a big chunk of the $TSLA crowd has bought these obviously non-sensible quips about exactly how to "compare" Tesla to other OEMs, while ignoring the glaring ways in which those comparisons are disingenuous and wrong.
 

PilotPete

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For some reason, a big chunk of the $TSLA crowd has bought these obviously non-sensible quips about exactly how to "compare" Tesla to other OEMs, while ignoring the glaring ways in which those comparisons are disingenuous and wrong.
I made a move into $TSLA when I figured out that the "ANALysts" (from the latin for butt-heads) were looking at the company really inconsistently and treated them like a legacy OEM with all the same matrices.
 

cvalue13

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I made a move into $TSLA when I figured out that the "ANALysts" (from the latin for butt-heads) were looking at the company really inconsistently and treated them like a legacy OEM with all the same matrices.

the more reputable analysists explicitly attribute only like 40% of the market cap to the automobile manufacturing segment of the business, the rest is blah blah blah AI, etc.

So that means that Tesla's market cap relevant to the auto segment, is only ~12 times greater on a per-vehicle basis than Toyota ... which means (in cartoon simplicity) Tesla's margins per vehicle would need to be 12 times greater than Toyota's margins per vehicle to justify it's 40% of market cap attributable to the auto manu segment

totally valid to disagree with the analysts that rather than being 40$ car company, it's eg 20% car company...

if that's your thing
 

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Just because other BEV manufactures are losing money does not make a reduced profitability Tesla an attractive investment for the markets. They are currently being judged by their own high profit margin decline to single digits. Not the fact that other BEV's are losing significant money each vehicle sold. It all does not bode well for BEV adoption and makes investors nervous.
My specialty is in investing in misunderstood companies, the three most obvious ones I can think of, were misunderstood because people and companies who felt threatened by them created false narratives. I would normally never invest in any auto company because they are famous for low average profit margins. That's because auto sales are strongly cyclical, during times of tight money and rising interest rates, auto companies often lose money or struggle to break even. But there are two glaring problems with applying this to Tesla and these reasons are the same reasons I invested in Tesla in 2019 in a big way and multiplied my capital fifteen times:

1) Tesla is not a normal auto company.
2) Tesla is not just an auto company.

Anyone who didn't understand this in 2019 (many said Tesla was certainly going bankrupt shortly), did not invest, and did not 15X their capital. Some of the biggest TSLAQ types actually invested in Ford and/or GM at the same time they were telling people Tesla was wildly over-valued at 1/15th the current value. That showed a profound misunderstanding of the company that is Tesla.

Looking at Tesla now as an investment, Tesla's falling profit margin per vehicle now is not the most pertinent metric with which to judge the company because it should be expected that auto margins fall during hard economic times. More relevant are two related factors:

1) The difference in margins between Tesla and the rest.
2) The fact that Tesla is able to maintain this difference as they grow production and sales while the rest have shrinking sales. Margins do not fall as far if you are willing to keep prices so high that sales fall (and that is exactly what legacy auto is doing).

Compounding the above two factors is the fact that Tesla is able to maintain their superior margins even with all of their other expensive initiatives like building a production facility to mass produce semi-trucks, expanding Giga Texas and Giga Berlin, developing Dojo AI supercomputer and FSD, accelerating the buildout of their Supercharger Network, developing humanoid robots (including custom servos to power them), developing a next generation vehicle (Cybertruck) with 48 V architecture and huge castings, ramping and automating Megapack energy storage products for grid deployment, developing auto-bidder software to trade electricity on the energy markets, building a new mega factory in Mexico, etc.

All of these initiatives cost money and yet Tesla is still cash flow positive and has a higher net profit margin than any other automakers, even though almost none of these expensive initiatives are contributing significantly to their profits yet. That's why traditional analysts ignore them. As auto sales recover, and Tesla energy products show impressive margins and growth rates, Tesla will be positioned such that it will become apparent just how undervalued they are at less than a trillion dollars. The strong possibility that FSD may also hit payday is just the frosting on the cake.

Anyone who waits until all of these things are proven will miss out on most of the profits, just like those who didn't buy TSLA in 2019 because their superior profits were still unproven, and thus Tesla was "overvalued" missed out. As I said, my specialty is investing in disruptive companies that are misunderstood, and thus undervalued. The people who can't see what is happening right before their eyes, the people who have to wait to see the profit margins materialize, cannot get a good deal on the stock and cannot multiply their capital in an excessive manner.

It's very short-sighted to look at current margins per car and think that is a static situation. Margins will return and production/sales volumes will continue to increase due to an inability of legacy auto to match the kind of value Tesla is capable of bringing to new car buyers. Tesla is not done driving down the cost of new cars, something that will be wildly popular as legacy auto continues to fail at doing the same thing. Working against them will be declining economies of scale.

And Tesla is not just an auto company, they are leveraging auto profits to propel them into other lucrative businesses like grid energy storage, applied AI and advanced computing, robotics and vehicle charging where others will find it impossible to do what Tesla can. Tesla is a generational company of the kind that doesn't come along often. That's why it looks perpetually "over-valued" to those who don't understand it. Very short-sighted. Traditional analysts always miss the biggest opportunities because they can't see outside their valuation bubble. Remember, their valuation techniques are built around average companies, not exceptional ones.
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