Final Cybertruck Production Version: when will we see

[Ogre]

They also told us that the target production volume is 250,000 CTs per year. We cannot pick and choose what they say that we are going to believe. I happen to agree with you that the competition is the full-sized ICE pickup market, so any price comparisons would be against ICE pickups, and the Tesla pricing was intended to be 'really' competitive with them.

If you want to get picky, Musk said 250k - 300k/ year (or more). So only about 6.25x - 7.5x sales of Ford & Rivian combined this year.

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[Ogre]

I thought that this thread was about when we would see the Cybertruck and not about the prices. How come no matter what the topic is the thread always devolves into pricing, which no one knows anything more than what we started with, a comment from Elon that costs will have to be addressed, and a lot of guessing? The same people (including me) say the same things and then it gets dropped until the next thread. I am guessing that this will finally end when production begins (back to the original thread) and I will be glad to have it in the rearview mirror at last

It’s like an ancillary to Godwin’s Law. Every Cybertruck discussion eventually devolves into a debate about pricing.

 

[slomo]

The CT 'Duel' motor might be $69,999.99 ( Now that's a better deal/ better truck when that happens )

Could be. But that lower price makes no difference to CT sales for a couple of years. So the question becomes what does Tesla gain by foregoing the extra revenue?

It's also sounding like CT is HW4, which will add currently unappreciated value. Starting with HW4 being a high end gaming capable.

 

[Ogre]

Could be. But that lower price makes no difference to CT sales for a couple of years. So the question becomes what does Tesla gain by foregoing the extra revenue?

What does Tesla gain by not alienating hundreds of thousands of their most loyal customers.


Hmm…

 

[EV Rob]

The auto pricing bubble has popped.

Yes. Tesla is admitting it. Their transparent pricing model makes it clear.

The lot was also full of 2022's - must be cars that finally got their chips.

 

[Rutrow]

Tesla doesn't pay for advertising, but they will pay handsomely for buzz! High production value reveal events and investor days cost a fortune, but it's well worth it for the buzz they create.
The greatest buzz Tesla can get from CyberTruck deliveries will be a price that knocks the socks off any and all competition. They can amortize the margins across the entire million trucks they sell over the next few years, so the pricing WILL take into account the unit cost on the 500,000th one to roll off the line later in the decade.
I think the first ones will be surprisingly close to the reveal night prices. OEM CEO heads will explode! ??

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

A 40% markup to a .99 (which Tesla avoids) so that the 'duel' (dual) motor is more expensive than the tri motor launched with?

The shame they'd be piled on would be massive. It would take them a decade of deeply slashed prices to get the public to think their truck wasn't still overpriced.

-Crissa

RIVIAN had a similar dilemma when they had to honour reservations prior to March 1(?) 2022. The $69,999.99
is only indicative to compare it to the R1T and F150 today
I maintain $79,999.99 for the TRI ( Tru Blu)
Single Motor $49,999.99
'Duel' $59,999.99
and then the QUAD MOTOR.
Elon will not be honouring my TRI $69,900 ( Will ''TRY' for an upgrade to QUAD )

 

[Crissa]

Could be. But that lower price makes no difference to CT sales for a couple of years. So the question becomes what does Tesla gain by foregoing the extra revenue?

They gain competitive advantage. They gain satisfied customers. They gain a price expectation that they're competitive with ICE trucks. They don't lose their commanding reservation list. They don't have to fight off criminal and civil and shareholder lawsuits.

How many times do I have to say that?

If they jack up the price they upset a huge number of buyers, and give ammo to the shorts. They expose weakness for the fudsters to exploit. And they lose their reservation advantage. And they give their public image a big tarnish as being overpriced toys not fit for work and unable to compete with the ICE trucks out there.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I think the first ones will be surprisingly close to the reveal night prices. OEM CEO heads will explode! ??

This is where I think the real strategy comes in. Tesla’s goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. Launching with low prices absolutely forces Ford/ GM to follow suit and release electric trucks at lower prices or lose massive market share.

If Tesla releases trucks at sky high prices, GM and Ford can cede that ground to Tesla the way the industry ignored the Model S for years. By making an electric truck that is competitive with middle of the road ICE trucks, they are staking out a claim on GM & Ford’s doorstep where they must respond with their own affordable trucks. Look at the Mach-E and how Ford was willing to take even deeper losses on that vehicle just so they could have table-stakes.



Oh? You don’t think Tesla actually cares about their mission and they only act in their self interest? There is no better way to ensure you have pricing freedom than to eliminate all competition. By pricing aggressively, Tesla may well wipe GM & Ford off the map. Arguably, the lower the price they go, the tougher it is for them. A Cybertruck at $50k is Ford’s worst nightmare.

 

[Crissa]

One way they might deal with this and split the issue is announce two models in the pricing; one with slightly accelerated delivery and one without.

That way people feel like the cheaper Dual Motor is coming out on schedule while the Quad is soaking a few early adopters.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

One way they might deal with this and split the issue is announce two models in the pricing; one with slightly accelerated delivery and one without.

That way people feel like the cheaper Dual Motor is coming out on schedule while the Quad is soaking a few early adopters.

-Crissa

Very strong chance more expensive quad motor truck comes out first. Only question in my mind is whether it is under $80k or not.

Hopefully TSLA hits $400 again before then so I won’t care. Or at least $325 so I’ll care, but do it anyhow.

 

[slomo]

RIVIAN had a similar dilemma when they had to honour reservations prior to March 1(?) 2022. The $69,999.99
is only indicative to compare it to the R1T and F150 today
I maintain $79,999.99 for the TRI ( Tru Blu)
Single Motor $49,999.99
'Duel' $59,999.99
and then the QUAD MOTOR.
Elon will not be honouring my TRI $69,900 ( Will ''TRY' for an upgrade to QUAD )

One option Tesla has is to only build expensive quad motor until they meet demand. That may be the only model with rear wheel steering. A 100K units at $100K would return $10 billion, which would offset a lot of the revenue and margin loss on the 3/Y lower price.

Tesla could leave lower priced CT orders until demand is met. They have done this regularly with the 3/Y, with the SR version only appearing when demand slackens.

Rivian's dilemma is not particularly similar. Rivian feared that they had ruined demand before they even launched their first product. Rivian has $1000 reservations with the price in the account for years.

Tesla can set any reasonable price and sell out for 3+ years. To date Tesla has always set price to match demand with production capacity.

 

[Crissa]

Who has sold a 100k of a $100k vehicle?

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Who has sold a 100k of a $100k vehicle?

This is where the hand-wavy bits start. None of these claims of ridiculously high Cybertruck prices has any basis in reality. It’s just a bunch of people pumping fear based on nothing.

”You can't kind of just raise prices to some arbitrarily high level because you pass the affordability boundary and then the demand falls off a cliff.”— Elon Musk


Some people seem perfectly willing to drive off that cliff based on nothing.

 

[charliemagpie]

The math is simple

Make a compelling truck at a compelling price

and make as many a year as the market can take.

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