Flippers are done! 150+ Cybertruck for-sale listings

[DittoDan]

Yes, you are missing that the conversion rate for reservations to orders is not even close to 100%, by my estimate it's somewhere around 20%. But this does not mean you will be able to walk in buy one off the delivery center floor in a year because new orders keep coming in. Tesla will try to manage the price to maintain a slight backlog of orders.

Never underestimate the number of new buyers who will put an order in when they understand the truck is real, and it's available within 60 days.

Thanks for backing me up. Yea, it will way more than 4 years before someone gets a CT if ordered today.

Dan the Man from Michigan

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[HaulingAss]

Thanks for backing me up. Yea, it will way more than 4 years before someone gets a CT if ordered today.

Dan the Man from Michigan

Haha! That's funny because it's not what I said.

 

[DittoDan]

Haha! That's funny because it's not what I said.

Exactly, LOL! Ok, I see you're having difficulty with math?

Dan the Man from Michigan

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Thanks for backing me up. Yea, it will way more than 4 years before someone gets a CT if ordered today.

Dan the Man from Michigan

Enthusiast forums always say "they will sell everyone they can produce." This is true, until it isn't.

The key to selling 150k CTs a year is getting the price down. At the current prices they will sell to enthusiasts like us who want the truck so bad we will eat the 40%+ depreciation after year one. The average buyers aren't like the people on this forum. $70k AWD CTs before tax credit will be needed to keep sales momentum. Just look at the Q1 results if you think I'm being dramatic, it's very hard for Tesla to bring in new buyers, there is a clear divide between people who want EVs and who don't.

 

[HaulingAss]

Enthusiast forums always say "they will sell everyone they can produce." This is true, until it isn't.

The key to selling 150k CTs a year is getting the price down. At the current prices they will sell to enthusiasts like us who want the truck so bad we will eat the 40%+ depreciation after year one. The average buyers aren't like the people on this forum. $70k AWD CTs before tax credit will be needed to keep sales momentum. Just look at the Q1 results if you think I'm being dramatic, it's very hard for Tesla to bring in new buyers, there is a clear divide between people who want EVs and who don't.

It's probable that if Tesla is not too far in the hole after two quarters of ramping, when the Foundation Series early adopter tax of $20K disappears, they can sell a bunch without the $20K premium and break even, overall, in a reasonable timeframe. From that point forward, it's just a matter of continuing to ramp production, and lower prices, to keep selling more and more. The reason they are so reluctant to let them go at low prices now is because they have billions of development costs to pay down, before the overall platform turns a profit and that's hard to pay down if you're not starting with a high price. Tesla wants as much insurance as possible that it doesn't take 4 years to break even on development costs.

Even if Tesla sells each Cybertruck at $5K profit from the beginning, it would take 400,000 sales to break even on development costs of $2 billion. And the first ones off the line are never sold at a profit, even if they were charging $150K each. By maximizing revenue now, they get to the point where they can sell them in massive quantities at very low prices.

Remember, when Elon said they wouldn't be "cash flow positive" on the Cybertruck for a couple of years (if I remember correctly), he was including development costs. It's a form of sandbagging. In other words, the Cybertruck can be "cash flow positive" on a quarterly basis, while still being cash flow negative for the Cybertruck as a whole. That means the cost to produce might be lower than an average selling price by the middle of this year. The difference is that Elon's statement took into account all their Cybertruck investments, while cost to produce only includes the incremental additional cost of each one (which includes wear and tear on the equipment and facilities, but not the development costs).

 

[FutureTruck]

Enthusiast forums always say "they will sell everyone they can produce." This is true, until it isn't.

The key to selling 150k CTs a year is getting the price down. At the current prices they will sell to enthusiasts like us who want the truck so bad we will eat the 40%+ depreciation after year one. The average buyers aren't like the people on this forum. $70k AWD CTs before tax credit will be needed to keep sales momentum. Just look at the Q1 results if you think I'm being dramatic, it's very hard for Tesla to bring in new buyers, there is a clear divide between people who want EVs and who don't.

Most of those "who don'ts" would want one if they charged at a decent rate and had 350-500 miles of range. But if Tesla keeps with the small battery in the CT and painfully slow charging it will stay a luxury second vehicle.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

It's probable that if Tesla is not too far in the hole after two quarters of ramping, when the Foundation Series early adopter tax of $20K disappears, they can sell a bunch without the $20K premium and break even, overall, in a reasonable timeframe. From that point forward, it's just a matter of continuing to ramp production, and lower prices, to keep selling more and more. The reason they are so reluctant to let them go at low prices now is because they have billions of development costs to pay down, before the overall platform turns a profit and that's hard to pay down if you're not starting with a high price. Tesla wants as much insurance as possible that it doesn't take 4 years to break even on development costs.

Even if Tesla sells each Cybertruck at $5K profit from the beginning, it would take 400,000 sales to break even on development costs of $2 billion. And the first ones off the line are never sold at a profit, even if they were charging $150K each. By maximizing revenue now, they get to the point where they can sell them in massive quantities at very low prices.

Remember, when Elon said they wouldn't be "cash flow positive" on the Cybertruck for a couple of years (if I remember correctly), he was including development costs. It's a form of sandbagging. In other words, the Cybertruck can be "sach flow positive" on a quarterly basis, while still being cash flow negative for the Cybertruck as a whole. That means the cost to produce might be lower than an average selling price by the middle of this year. The difference is that Elon's statement took into account all their Cybertruck investments, while cost to produce only includes the incremental additional cost of each one (which includes wear and tear on the equipment and facilities, but not the development costs).

I 100% agree with everything you say regarding costs and needing to recoup development.

The one thing you don't mention is what happens if demand shrinks before the manufacturing efficiencies are realized? Tesla sales being below almost every estimate this quarter is something to keep an eye on. What if there just isn't enough demand for a $100k truck? What if the number of buyers moving from ICE to EV has flattened? Anecdotal, but everyone I know who wants an EV has one, and everyone who doesn't already drive one has no interest.

When the Lightning came out and they couldn't keep them on the lot at year one productions numbers, everyone assumed the sky was the limit. Then the buyers disappeared. The only Lightnings that still move relatively quickly are the $60k-ish trims.

Now bring that same buyer appetite to Tesla, are the S and X sales high? No they aren't, they are lumped in with "other" and essentially a footnote in the Tesla earnings reports. To assume a third vehicle at a higher price than the S and X will push 3 and Y type sales volume isn't something I'm ready to do yet.

 

[HaulingAss]

Most of those "who don'ts" would want one if they charged at a decent rate and had 350-500 miles of range. But if Tesla keeps with the small battery in the CT and painfully slow charging it will stay a luxury second vehicle.

I don't agree with that for a minute. Tesla will sell millions of Cybertrucks with a 340-mile range or less. The sweet spot for high volume sales has more to do with low prices and less to do with dreamy high ranges (especially when Superchargers can add over 100 miles of range in 10 minutes). It's only a small percentage of all truck users who require more than 340 miles of EPA range.

Furthermore, when Tesla eventually releases a 500-mile version, it will cost more and sell in lower numbers than the 340 mile range version. I can see the anti-EV crowd is working overtime to convince people that every truck owner needs more than 300+ mmiles of range between charging sessions.

 

[HaulingAss]

I 100% agree with everything you say regarding costs and needing to recoup development.

The one thing you don't mention is what happens if demand shrinks before the manufacturing efficiencies are realized? Tesla sales being below almost every estimate this quarter is something to keep an eye on. What if there just isn't enough demand for a $100k truck? What if the number of buyers moving from ICE to EV has flattened? Anecdotal, but everyone I know who wants an EV has one, and everyone who doesn't already drive one has no interest.

Demand is very price sensitive. Tesla knows they will have continuing demand at a lower price point, and that they will be profitable at that price point. It's just a matter of ramping to high volume and demand will take care of itself. No matter how hard the anti-EV anti-Tesla interests try to take the shine off the Cybertruck, they will not be able to reduce demand enough that Tesla cannot ramp to high volume and low prices.

When the Lightning came out and they couldn't keep them on the lot at year one productions numbers, everyone assumed the sky was the limit. Then the buyers disappeared. The only Lightnings that still move relatively quickly are the $60k-ish trims.

People forget that every Lightning is sold at a huge loss to Ford, they can't lower the prices further without losing even more money.

People will pay more for a Cybertruck than a truck made of soft, damage prone aluminum, a truck without a tonneau cover, without adjustable suspension, without tight, nimble handling and four-wheel steering, without the ability to eat up rugged ground at speed without bouncing uncontrollably, with crappy software and a fragmented fast charging infrastructure that requires multiple fast-charging accounts and subscriptions to get the lowest prices. So, yeah, Tesla is not going to be running out of demand at $60-70K. And that's more than the cost to produce them in volume.

Now bring that same buyer appetite to Tesla, are the S and X sales high? No they aren't, they are lumped in with "other" and essentially a footnote in the Tesla earnings reports. To assume a third vehicle at a higher price than the S and X will push 3 and Y type sales volume isn't something I'm ready to do yet.

Nope, in America even crappy trucks sell for a lot more than good cars. Your doubts are without foundation. Why are you comparing car prices to that of a Truck with 35" tires and a 2500 pound (one and a quarter ton) cargo capacity? They are two completely different use cases and markets.

 

[FutureTruck]

About 10 a day are getting sold on Cargurus and even with that high sales rate they are starting to stack up, up to 76 now just on cargurus, makes it a couple hundred across all the sites. Selling for as low as $117k

 

[FutureTruck]

Enthusiast forums always say "they will sell everyone they can produce." This is true, until it isn't.

The key to selling 150k CTs a year is getting the price down. At the current prices they will sell to enthusiasts like us who want the truck so bad we will eat the 40%+ depreciation after year one. The average buyers aren't like the people on this forum. $70k AWD CTs before tax credit will be needed to keep sales momentum. Just look at the Q1 results if you think I'm being dramatic, it's very hard for Tesla to bring in new buyers, there is a clear divide between people who want EVs and who don't.

Someone sent me the latest cargurus listing, every time I look I only see the logal ones for some reason. Looks like a dozen sold over the last couple days but the number available continue to go up as the price continues to come down. I wonder when these will be cheaper than buying one from Tesla?

 

[HaulingAss]

Someone sent me the latest cargurus listing, every time I look I only see the logal ones for some reason. Looks like a dozen sold over the last couple days but the number available continue to go up as the price continues to come down. I wonder when these will be cheaper than buying one from Tesla?

Lightly used, almost new Cybertrucks will not be cheaper than new Cybertrucks until you can walk in and buy one off the floor. Since Tesla will manage prices gradually lower to keep demand high, that could be two years from now.

Which is amazing considering most vehicles lose ~ 25% as soon as you drive it off the lot.

 

[CYBEAST]

this one just sold in Atlanta at a dealership for 100k. 300 miles on it. I talked to them but decided to continue to wait for my truck I already configured.

 

[Darth abbott]

May be cheaper to buy a used one soon

149 is the cheapest I'm seeing. And there's not a lot of them at that price. I think some of the really really low ones like the 100K are people just posting stuff. I've seen some pop up on Facebook talk to the people and they're not actually selling they don't have one they just post it just to throw people off. I'm not saying that all the listings on CarGurus aren't real but I think there are a lot more fake ones than there are real listings especially off of CarGurus like Facebook marketplace.

 

[FutureTruck]

149 is the cheapest I'm seeing. And there's not a lot of them at that price. I think some of the really really low ones like the 100K are people just posting stuff. I've seen some pop up on Facebook talk to the people and they're not actually selling they don't have one they just post it just to throw people off. I'm not saying that all the listings on CarGurus aren't real but I think there are a lot more fake ones than there are real listings especially off of CarGurus like Facebook marketplace.

See the one from the dealer in Atlanta, posted and sold through a dealer for $100k
One in Phoenix sold via a dealer for $98k

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