GOT VIN TODAY (2/1/24) Arriving 2/11

agordon117

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exactly, unless they have a batch dump at 1 time but that seems unlikely
Well, I've suspected from the start that they aren't going in order, and will deliver a batch at varying locals before they fill the first 50%+ of the orders that are from california. They'd rather have 20 in ohio, 20 in florida, 20 in california, etc... vs 500 in california, 100 in texas, and zero anywhere else. And so someone like me (a 1/9 invite) could sneak onto a transport with earlier orders in my area.

But, the way deliveries have been registered here, it seems to not be the case. These are all day 1 orders that keep being delivered. So either there are trains moving around the country at snail's pace right now, taking one batch per area to start with... or they really are doing day 1 orders first, and it's just going slowly.
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edc

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Well, I've suspected from the start that they aren't going in order, and will deliver a batch at varying locals before they fill the first 50%+ of the orders that are from california. They'd rather have 20 in ohio, 20 in florida, 20 in california, etc... vs 500 in california, 100 in texas, and zero anywhere else. And so someone like me (a 1/9 invite) could sneak onto a transport with earlier orders in my area.

But, the way deliveries have been registered here, it seems to not be the case. These are all day 1 orders that keep being delivered. So either there are trains moving around the country at snail's pace right now, taking one batch per area to start with... or they really are doing day 1 orders first, and it's just going slowly.
most rational explanation ever.
Makes sense now they go to different states even though they had day 1's only in CA and Texas etc.
Can't overload the service centers

I'm a day 2/3 person so I'm assuming mine will come end of March/April.
 

LonelyCTfan

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I watch the chap on youtube who does fly overs like every other day. They are definately pumping them out. Both on trucks to trains and trucks to dealers. I think they hypothesis about fanning our deliveries by region to not over saturate the shops if issues arise, like the tire covers and text size haha 🤣 those aren't as serious, but if something does occur, they don't want to not have a way to fix them.

In today's video there were like 19 CT waiting for a piece of plastic missing in the back of the truck. It was 1 on Wednesday. It's odd only these 19 are missing the plastic. No one can identify it, that's just all they notice "missing or different".

Lots of cool people doing great work to keep us informed!
 

Cybertruck 1974

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can't believe they are still delivering 12/9 orders. January folks will be waiting forever
2025 for 3rd week orders placed. Sad. yet for a 7 Billion dollar factory it will only take 70k CT's to pay it off. so he's not in a hurry.
 

Mini2nut

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Current estimate is that Austin is producing 25-50 Cybertrucks per day. We will be lucky to see 30k trucks leave the assembly plant this year.
 


Cyberjam

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my thoughts EXACTLY. I’m 12/12 order in CA. I was so excited to see 12/8-12/9 orders getting vins almost 2-3 weeks ago and it’s still on those two dates. Even some in Florida with 12/15-12/20 order dates got VINs too. Everyone will be waiting a while.

Those initial estimates of Jan-mar 2024 for the 5th and 6th wave of invites is crazy talk. They haven’t even finished with the 1st wave and it’s now February.
No need for despair. Current production is experiencing "fits and starts," as far as I can see. A delay here, a misfit there... but the factory is still producing. OUR CYBERTRUCKS ARE COMING. Woo-HOO!
 

ideaXfactory

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Current estimate is that Austin is producing 25-50 Cybertrucks per day. We will be lucky to see 30k trucks leave the assembly plant this year.
I've seem the ramp up curves and they are optimistic... 30K sounds about right. To put that in perspective, 50 X 5 = 250 trucks a week X 52 weeks in a year = 13,000. They are no where near even that pace yet.... At some point there will be a glut, but that will likely take years to happen. Wait a couple more years if you can...
 

Tony stank

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Do we guess when did you get an invite and order it or you may wanna include it before 10 other people ask about it?
😂 I already said it in this post a few times but ig I should add it to my bio or something.
Got the invite 12/8, placed order 12/9 4:30 PM.
NorCal.
 


Cybrtrk420

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Thanks! They still not done with 12/8 and 12/9 orders yet
 

Ward L

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When Looking at deliveries, remember this site is a pretty small subset of the CT deliveries. We have 32 FSCT deliveries on the Owners Club forum and Tesla has made many more FSCT. Maybe 400 for sale? If your VIN is 14XX, doesn’t that mean about 400 production trucks for new owners?
 

CyberGus

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When Looking at deliveries, remember this site is a pretty small subset of the CT deliveries.
All the important ones are here.

Well, at least the self-important, apparently
 

Ward L

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FWIW: If the 1st VIN for sale to customer was 400 delivered 12/24/23 (as shown in our database of VIN deliveries). Now we are up to VIN 1200 delivered 2/1. Tesla has made 800 FSCT in 39 days, or 21/day. The CT Owners Club only shows 35 FSCT deliveries of the 800 made. Assuming all 800 FSCT were delivered, 35/800 means the forum is only about 4.4% of the FSCT delivery population. I expect as soon as few forum members get delivery of their FSCT, they forget to register their delivery, making the 4.4% guess low. The 21 FSCT per day roughly matches the 26 number the drone guy came up with at GigaTexas.

Now looking at the CT Forum order list, we have 1,153 orders for FSCT today. Divide that by the 5% membership, and that is about 23,000 FSCT ordered as of today by everyone, everywhere. Using 26 FSCT/day, the guy that has Order number 1,153 will get his FSCT in about 2.4 years. No, no, don't despair... GigaTexas will certainly increase production as they grease the production line. If they double the production rate, Order 1,153 gets his FSCT in 1.2 years. I happen to have Order 614 meaning I'm getting my FSCT on September 26, 2024.

If you are still with me, this is a lot of hand waiving of "what if" numbers and guestimates. One thing for sure, these estimates are not correct. But it is a little curious why we only have deliveries of people ordering on 12/8-9 almost 2 months later. So many things about GigaTexas and the FSCT are big, amazing, hurry up and wait, crazy, UNKNOWN, etc.

Let's just say, these calcs are total BS and we will get our FSCT much sooner. Hope so.
 

Coltpete

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You're assuming all of the vins have been made. My understanding is that quite a few were reserved for the CB which has yet to be made. I'd say there may be 100-300 less than you're thinking at this point in time.

@cvalue13 might be able to weigh in I belive they have a working knowledge of the Vins activated.
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