Is the folded exoskeleton actually easy to manufacture

[Mini2nut]

Following in the footsteps of other Tesla models I predict the Cybertruck will have a stellar 5-star crash rating. The Cybertruck has the chance to be the safest vehicle ever tested by IIHS and NHTSA.

Sponsored

 

[John K]

I feel bad for any CT owner who receives enough damage to write off the vehicle.

It will take 5 years before a replacement will be built.

 

[firsttruck]

I feel bad for any CT owner who receives enough damage to write off the vehicle.

It will take 5 years before a replacement will be built.

Until Tesla changes the $100 reservation policy the wait for replacement does not have to be 4-5 years.

Do like I am, even after I get the Cybertruck, I will continue to put in another reservation every 6 months. My plan is if I lose or sell the first Cybertruck I will only have to wait 6 months for my next one.

 

[Tinker71]

Until Tesla changes the $100 reservation policy the wait for replacement does not have to be 4-5 years.

Do like I am, even after I get the Cybertruck, I will continue to put in another reservation every 6 months. My plan is if I lose or sell the first Cybertruck I will only have to wait 6 months for my next one.

Not a bad strategy, but it sure leaves Tesla and many of us wondering how many reservations will actually execute. I am sure Tesla has a pretty good algorithm to sort through these things, but still some uncertainty as they build out their production capacity. 50% conversion?

 

[firsttruck]

Not a bad strategy, but it sure leaves Tesla and many of us wondering how many reservations will actually execute. I am sure Tesla has a pretty good algorithm to sort through these things, but still some uncertainty as they build out their production capacity. 50% conversion?

My plan is to use every one of my Cybertruck reservations. But of course plans can change. Maybe I need more than I reserved but also maybe I use less.

The current reservations are just one data piece for the real demand for Cybertruck. There are others. The biggest factor is what happens when there are real Cybertrucks on the streets (hopefully 6 months from now) and 10s of millions of non-Tesla owners see the Cybertruck in person. Especially fleet buyers. At that point I think reservations will go to Mars and with a higher percent of commited buyers than there are now.

 

[Crissa]

50% conversion?

Tesla had 75% conversion with the Model 3 and its troublesome rollout. It took them a little over two years to chew through the backlog.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

Tesla had 75% conversion with the Model 3 and its troublesome rollout. It took them a little over two years to chew through the backlog.

-Crissa

I'm guessing the M3 didn't have as large a backlog of people making multiple orders (for company-owned, future FSD rideshare, or other schemes) though. It would be interesting to see how much of the backlog for CT are single-entity multiple orders. Depending on a whole variety of issues, those multiples could either further multiply or get shrunk down so single/non-orders.

 

[Crissa]

I'm guessing the M3 didn't have as large a backlog of people making multiple orders ...

Hard to tell. Alot of them were used by taxi and ride-share systems. But those were less 'proven' as they are now. But the Cybertruck is a more expensive, larger vehicle which doesn't fit many of those uses (even while it fits others).

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

Hard to tell. Alot of them were used by taxi and ride-share systems. But those were less 'proven' as they are now. But the Cybertruck is a more expensive, larger vehicle which doesn't fit many of those uses (even while it fits others).

-Crissa

I don't recall any real competition with the M3 at the time and wasn't it a $1500 deposit? Probably still refundable, but much more of a commitment CT is up against Ford and Rivian for sure.

I do think a lot of people will pass on converting their reservations, but many new orders will follow. My hope is that there is 10 plus years of production at over 100,000 units per year without a major body change and my CT2 # 219567 (11/25/23) is more like #100,000 4/1/23.

 

[CyberMoose]

I don't recall any real competition with the M3 at the time and wasn't it a $1500 deposit? Probably still refundable, but much more of a commitment CT is up against Ford and Rivian for sure.

I do think a lot of people will pass on converting their reservations, but many new orders will follow. My hope is that there is 10 plus years of production at over 100,000 units per year without a major body change and my CT2 # 219567 (11/25/23) is more like #100,000 4/1/23.

I know Elon estimated production to be at around 250-300 thousand per year. But that will be at peak capacity when they have no bottlenecks in the supply chain.

As for a major body chain. I absolutely love the Cybertruck design...and I hope they make at least some tweaks to it as soon as I get mine. I plan on driving my CT until the day I die, and then maybe another roadtrtip with FSD. The more unique the first Cybertruck is will make me really happy to be driving one around in another 20-30 years. But if there are already going to be like a million of them, that's not all that unique and there will probably still be hundreds of thousands out of the first million even 30+ years from now.

 

[firsttruck]

I know Elon estimated production to be at around 250-300 thousand per year. But that will be at peak capacity when they have no bottlenecks in the supply chain.

.....
The more unique the first Cybertruck is will make me really happy to be driving one around in another 20-30 years. But if there are already going to be like a million of them, that's not all that unique and there will probably still be hundreds of thousands out of the first million even 30+ years from now.

My entire life in most places I have been I have been easily noticed in a crowd and the attention has many times been negative. I do not want to be noticed. Normally I do not buy anything that makes me more noticeable.

I love the Cybertruck design. I love the Cybertruck superior specifications.

With the Cybertruck I hate that I will standout.

I hope Tesla sells minimum 500,000 Cybertrucks in U.S. every year and the quicker that happens the better.

Like with early iPhone buyers that got mugged because they used iPhones in public. Now that iPhones & Android phones are everywhere that rarely happens.

Please Tesla flood the world with Cybertrucks, Cybertaxis, CyberSUVs.

Maybe instead of 3mm SS, Tesla would only need 2mm cold-rolled stainless steel for some of the vehicle styles.

No paint shop & much fewer steel stamping presses make it much more practical to make small but efficient Cyber factories than regular style car/truck factories. If a country's production volume is not large enough for Mega-Casting press, import just the mega-castings and make rest of vehicle in-country.

Please put Cyber and 4680 LiFePO4 (LFP) battery factories in every large population country in the world (Mexico, Canada, India, Brazil, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Ethiopia, Philippines, Egypt, Vietnam, DR Congo, Iran, Poland, South Africa, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Thailand, Argentina).

The cells from each country's 4680 LiFePO4 (LFP) battery factory would also be used for home PowerWalls, business MegaPaks, grid MegaPaks, SuperCharger MegaPaks.

 

[firsttruck]

Car Production By Country 2019
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/car-production-by-country

Country	Tot. Vehicles	Cars	Commercial	Percent Change
China	25,720,665	21,360,193	4,360,472	-7.50%
United States	10,880,019	2,512,780	8,367,239	-3.70%
Japan	9,684,298	8,328,756	1,355,542	-0.50%
Germany	4,661,328	4,661,328		-9.00%
India	4,516,017	3,623,335	892,682	-12.20%
Mexico	3,986,794	1,382,714	2,604,080	-2.80%
South Korea	3,950,617	3,612,587	338,030	-1.90%
Brazil	2,944,988	2,448,490	496,498	2.20%
Spain	2,822,355	2,248,019	574,336	0.10%
France	2,202,460	1,675,198	527,262	-2.90%
Thailand	2,013,710	795,254	1,218,456	-7.10%
Canada	1,916,585	461,370	1,455,215	-5.40%
Russia	1,719,784	1,523,594	196,190	-2.80%
Turkey	1,461,244	982,642	478,602	-5.70%
Czech Republic	1,433,963	1,427,563	6,400	-0.60%
United Kingdom	1,381,405	1,303,135	78,270	-13.90%
Indonesia	1,286,848	1,045,666	241,182	-4.20%
Slovakia	1,100,000	1,100,000		0.60%
Italy	915,305	542,007	373,298	-13.80%
Iran	821,060	770,000	51,060	-25.00%
Poland	649,864	434,700	215,164	-1.50%
South Africa	631,983	348,665	283,318	3.50%

 

[Crissa]

From the demand, Tesla is going to have to build a million a year. I hope they're up to it.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

While the majority of the CT visible body might be easy to bend, how about all the transitions around the door frames etc. Does anybody have an idea how they will be made and how they will be connected to the flat/bent plate shell?

Supposedly the exoskeleton was going to be cheap to manufacture. I am not so sure now that I think about it. Maybe the body construction will be the source of the delay.

I called it. Or at least part of it. Folding 3mm stainless isn't like a rectangular cardboard box. If you really think about it there are only a couple places where you might have 3 straight bends on a single sheet. The hood, doors, sail box etc. will quickly break up a nice single piece of folded SS. The roof is mostly glass, the bed probably has some corrugation type depth to it (hopefully some sort of slot for attaching stuff)

 

[ldjessee]

The external skin is 3mm, the internal "body" will be stamped steel, and the bottom will be cast aluminum.

Having seen complicated ductwork made with just a brake and a pair of hand shears... not doubting it can be done and easier.

Yes, the metal is thicker, harder to bend and I assume no hand shears could be used... but I have seen origami shapes I would have sworn were impossible, but only required folding.

So I am confident that the Tesla engineers can figure it out.

What they cannot make magically happen is parts suppliers provide chips needed in the quantities needed by Tesla to support 3 factories pumping out cars.

As much "magic" as the Tesla engineers have done by using other chips, even those are not made in enough numbers to support all the normal customers, plus Tesla.

Sponsored