JBee

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I would put it a little bit differently and say "It's a fundamental problem with the regulators not doing their job".

There are really only two acceptable options when it comes to utilities (gas, electric, water, etc):

1) Full on government ownership of the infrastructure to deliver the service.
2) A regulated monopoly.

Because the two other options, an unregulated monopoly and multiple redundant wires and pipes of competing companies are unacceptable.
I'd add a third, deregulated, distributed, diversified decentralised, and shared, but well engineered! :)

I believe "we have the technology to rebuild him."
Well engineered technology can, and should substitute regulation to provide services like energy.
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HaulingAss

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I can say you're doing the same, doesn't make it true.
Prove that there is no technical problem with high RE penetration, in particular without storage.
There is very little difference between "lying" and being purposefully obtuse.

When the utility pretends they cannot cost-effectively solve the instantaneous demand problem of a high penetration of renewable energy, they are being purposefully obtuse (as well as lazy). Because they don't want to to do the right thing. The thing that is ultimately the most cost-effective way to solve the problem. Because they don't want their substantial investment in fossil fuel generation to become stranded assets. Rooftop solar competes with that.

This is precisely when we need effective oversight by the regulators.
 

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The idea that demand might taper of after initial rush could only be taken seriously if the vehicle does not meet the promised specs or has unforeseen issues that cannot be quickly addressed.

In other words, it's highly unlikely that demand will not grow instead of shrink. It's been said that Tesla's sell themselves. The more that are produced, the more people are exposed to them and the more they sell. Also, Tesla doesn't have any ads or salespeople. The owners are the only salespeople and the number of those is constantly growing. The Cybertruck will be no different.

Build a better product and the world will be knocking at your door.
Mostly agree.

But specs are numbers on a sheet of paper.

Nobody has driven one of these in a casual/ day to day basis and dealt with the limitations and perceived advantages of it. It may be this looks neat on paper, but turns out to be too frustrating for people to use as a work truck and/ or isn't practical off road. (Not a prediction, just recognizing the possibility)

The truck is unprecedented. We've had big Tesla pre-orders before, but they have all been fairly traditional designs.

I'm cautiously optimistic. I think it'll be just fine, but also recognize there is the real chance demand will flatten after the first generation rolls out.
 

HaulingAss

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I'd add a third, deregulated, distributed, diversified decentralised, and shared, but well engineered! :)

I believe "we have the technology to rebuild him."
Well engineered technology can, and should substitute regulation to provide services like energy.
Yes, good point, and I think that might be where it evolves. The trick is making the transition happen. That means the ownership of the infrastructure needs to be bought out by the utility customers over time. But the customers don't want the fossil generation assets. I believe California is inadvertently a couple of steps ahead those areas who haven't deregulated and slit off the energy generation from the distribution. I say "inadvertently" because it was greed, not good planning, that precipitated deregulation.

I think, realistically, it might take 20 years or more for that to happen. Of course, with good regulation, a regulated monopoly system could achieve the same thing with perhaps an edge on efficiency. But only with good regulation. Cooperatives have many of the same problems that regulated public utilities have. In the end, there doesn't need to be much difference between the two because the end goal should be the same.

Historically, investors invest in regulated utilities to get steady and reliable, but non-sexy returns. In a cooperative, the rate-payers would be paying those returns to bankers in the form of interest (because the ratepayers would have to borrow the required investments).
 

JBee

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There is very little difference between "lying" and being purposefully obtuse.

When the utility pretends they cannot cost-effectively solve the instantaneous demand problem of a high penetration of renewable energy, they are being purposefully obtuse (as well as lazy). Because they don't want to to do the right thing. The thing that is ultimately the most cost-effective way to solve the problem. Because they don't want their substantial investment in fossil fuel generation to become stranded assets. Rooftop solar competes with that.

This is precisely when we need effective oversight by the regulators.
So I think we need to specify where this is occurring, because here in Oz there is most definitely a problem with too much solar because we have a way to fragile network that is stretched thin over vast distances, with nobody inbetween.

Our local provider has been intentionally completely dismantling networks instead of upgrading them. Instead they install solar offgrid setups for the customers. Hey presto, no balancing issues, no RE limits and no goverment levies to equalise electricity costs accross the state...and no more bush fires from old powerlines. Byebye grid.

But as I tried to explain with my grid balancing posts, there is most definitely a technical problem too. And that is all I was talking about until the discussion went political and FUD this and that.

I can agree we need better regulation, but all regulation is post development. What we need first is better development of systems that work with our new cost effective and cost competitive RE. Off grid works better than most think and cheaper too.
 


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I would put it a little bit differently and say "It's a fundamental problem with the regulators not doing their job".
This is a big part of what I was hinting at when I referenced regulatory capture. Yes, regulators weren't doing their job. But it's very easy for utilities to sneak past regulators. We should probably fund independent inspections of these lines. So when state legislature starts talking about independent audits, the power companies lobby that this would cost more money and it would need to be passed along to the consumers. Then a few lunch meetings in Hawaii later, the legislature "realizes" that the utilities are right, it wouldn't be fair to the poor and underprivileged to increase utility rates for redundant checks when the utilities do it oh so well...
 

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Mostly agree.

But specs are numbers on a sheet of paper.

Nobody has driven one of these in a casual/ day to day basis and dealt with the limitations and perceived advantages of it. It may be this looks neat on paper, but turns out to be too frustrating for people to use as a work truck and/ or isn't practical off road. (Not a prediction, just recognizing the possibility)

The truck is unprecedented. We've had big Tesla pre-orders before, but they have all been fairly traditional designs.
Like I said, if it meets the stated specs, we already know how it will function in a day to day work environment. There is nothing that can't be accurately projected from the stated specs. It's just FUD to say "oh, it's all so new and different, maybe it won't work how people actually use their trucks, we don't know, it's a big unknown". The fact that you think it looks different is of no consequence to how it will perform. Sure, some will prefer a more boxy cab and bed with a big rectangular rack on top, so what? Most trucks don't have big rectangular racks on them. The truck market is so large this will not be an issue unless Tesla was producing 2-4 million annually.

Meeting the stated specs is the only uncertainty of significance. And Tesla has a very strong history of meeting their stated specs, even when those specs are announced 3 years before the product exists. They know how to do this and there is negative incentive for them to exaggerate the specs.

Cybertruck will sell faster than Tesla can make them for many years. Watch and see.
 
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Ogre

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I think it will be the safest truck ever crash tested but it's going to be pretty difficult to beat the results of cars that currently lead the crash safety tests (like the Model 3 and Model Y).

I'll be happy even if it can't beat the phenomenal safety of the two safest cars ever made!
Stopping distance will likely suffer due to weight. Otherwise, I think it'll be fine compared to the rest.

Side impact?? I think it'll do just fine.

I know safety of people outside the vehicle isn't a big deal (why not???), but as a cyclist and a pedestrian, having a hood that isn't a 6 foot tall cliff is much appreciated. Likewise, the camera coverage and alerts.
 

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So I think we need to specify where this is occurring, because here in Oz there is most definitely a problem with too much solar because we have a way to fragile network that is stretched thin over vast distances, with nobody inbetween.
The fragile network is the result of poor oversight and regulation of the utilities greed. And the utility's resistance to change has the same root cause. The utility has been obtuse. And regulators have let them get away with it. The result is not pretty.
 

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I think the jaws of life would have a lot of difficulty on 3 mm cold rolled stainless steel. The tool is not designed for a material that strong. If the frame is crumpled severely enough that the doors won't open, the preferred method of access for first responders will be through the windows or the roof. That said, I think Tesla will use the materials natural stiffness to great advantage in a crash. Instead of crumpling like an aluminum can, I think the door hinges and latches will take on key roles in absorbing crash energy before they shear and open on a frontal impact. In a side impact, the door frames opposite the impact will be more likely to widen, not collapse.

In other words, I'm not losing any sleep over getting trapped in my Cybertruck unless there is evidence this is a greater problem in a Cybertruck than traditional trucks.

Tesla is working to reduce the rate of serious accidents which reduces, but does not eliminate, the need to save trapped people in life-threatening situations. The best accident is the one that doesn't happen.
Crash impacts disperse energy. It would not surprise that Tesla 3mm cold rolled strength is engineered to transfer impact force through the exoskeleton right up and into that expanse of Armor glass deliberately.

CT’s would taco opening the roof structure on purpose to deflect force away from occupants and, in turn, always breech the passenger compartment to ambient air.
 


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Too bad he didn't make any substantive updates. We've been hearing bits about the handles, rear wheel steering and overall size for the most part already. How about some actual/factual info on production, government approvals, battery size, etc.?
this is what worries me. One would think he’d be giving substantive updates if we were close to production. I’m (unfortunately) thinking we won’t see limited production until spring and ramp up next summer.

SS body versus the jaws of life. I assume the jaws win. Alon glass versus the window break tool. Not sure which one wins.

On the glass front I’m hoping the glass thwarts the small window break tools that anyone can carry around in a pocket. Would hate to start seeing broken windows from vandalism.
You think the jaws win against CTs hard exterior? Not sure about that one.
glass on the CT will be bullet proof. Not exactly reassuring if I’m trapped inside.
I’m sure Tesla has this all figured out, and are working with reg agencies, so I’m not really worried about no door handles, but it does give me pause. Just like I’m sure they have the side mirrors figured out too.
 

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Like I said, if it meets the stated specs, we already know how it will function in a day to day work environment. There is nothing that can't be accurately projected from the stated specs. It's just FUD to say "oh, it's all so new and different, maybe it won't work how people actually use their trucks, we don't know, it's a big unknown".
This isn't what I said. So... sure, whatever.

The truck market is so large this will not be an issue unless Tesla was producing 5-10 million annually.

...

Cybertruck will sell faster than Tesla can make them for many years. Watch and see.
Again, I'm optimistic about the truck being successful. I don't think I've suggested otherwise.
 

JBee

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Stopping distance will likely suffer due to weight. Otherwise, I think it'll be fine compared to the rest.

Side impact?? I think it'll do just fine.

I know safety of people outside the vehicle isn't a big deal (why not???), but as a cyclist and a pedestrian, having a hood that isn't a 6 foot tall cliff is much appreciated. Likewise, the camera coverage and alerts.
It is a bigger deal in europe. External airbags could help. Some FSD avoidance too, by insuring cars keep enough distance etc to bike lanes. Most just have a spring dampened front hood for head impact protection.
 

HaulingAss

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Stopping distance will likely suffer due to weight. Otherwise, I think it'll be fine compared to the rest.

Side impact?? I think it'll do just fine.

I know safety of people outside the vehicle isn't a big deal (why not???), but as a cyclist and a pedestrian, having a hood that isn't a 6 foot tall cliff is much appreciated. Likewise, the camera coverage and alerts.
I think the most common version of the Cybertruck will weigh less, not more, than ICE trucks with comparable load capacities. It will also have a stiffer chassis and better suspension giving it a big edge in handling dynamics which plays into safety much more significantly than people give it credit for.

Most serious pickup truck accidents that I've seen on video are a direct result of serious handling deficiencies of traditional body on frame pickups, limitations the Cybertruck will not have to nearly the same degree. Not even comparable.

That one fact alone, the handling/roll-over resistance, will make the Cybertruck the safest truck in it's class.
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