LFP Cybertruck

[Crissa]

They spent 5x less to make 4680s than 2170s?

Wow.

-Crissa

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[JBee]

Well in capex to make the factory and manufacturing lines. Not sure what it is per cell as Drew said they don't (yet) control commodity pricing for resources.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, presumably the raw metals would be about the same... but the energy use would be way down, too. No steam-rreforming, no pumps, no settling tanks, and centrifuges. Oh, and drying racks.

This is going to be awesome for their bottom line.

And the trucks will have to be more expensive?

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

And the trucks will have to be more expensive?

-Crissa

Yeah well if they have achieved the pricing goals and are going to hit production rates for the 4680 then I wonder how the battery pricing will effect the CT price.

If we get 130kWh on a DM CT at $80kWh that's about $10k, 200kWh $16k QM. Proportionally, the larger battery in the QM is easier to accommodate in the original price, even including 4WS and the 4th motor.

The question is if they want CT to be profitable from day one of production or a year or so later.

 

[Tinker71]

Yeah well if they have achieved the pricing goals and are going to hit production rates for the 4680 then I wonder how the battery pricing will effect the CT price.

If we get 130kWh on a DM CT at $80kWh that's about $10k, 200kWh $16k QM. Proportionally, the larger battery in the QM is easier to accommodate in the original price, even including 4WS and the 4th motor.

The question is if they want CT to be profitable from day one of production or a year or so later.

I think you need to plug at least $150 per kWhr for the 200kWhr NCA pack and then assign values for the 4th motor/inverter and maybe 4ws to see which is more profitable to produce.

I wonder with today's tech of 4680 batteries if the 500 mile CT is even possible. Maybe there will be a 400ish mile quad motor that comes out first. The silicon doping of the anode? appears to be key.

 

[JBee]

After watching the last couple videos on LFP in either 4680 or blade form factor the more I am convinced that LFP will be integrated in the low and mid tier CT. It is all about the silicon doping.
I realistically don't see this in the next 2 years, but for me, it might see it based on my reservation number.

Personally I don't see the structural pack as golden

I think you need to plug at least $150 per kWhr for the 200kWhr NCA pack and then assign values for the 4th motor/inverter and maybe 4ws to see which is more profitable to produce.

I wonder with today's tech of 4680 batteries if the 500 mile CT is even possible. Maybe there will be a 400ish mile quad motor that comes out first. The silicon doping of the anode? appears to be key.

We had $150kWh in 2019. Thats 3 years ago.
4680 will be $80 once at production rates.

4WS probably around $1500, 4th motor and inverter under $5k.

But I didn't really want to predict CT pricing, rather I was thinking given the current state of 4680 development we should be seeing the price targets being met earlier rather than later.

 

[Tinker71]

-Crissa
[/QUOTE]

Well in capex to make the factory and manufacturing lines. Not sure what it is per cell as Drew said they don't (yet) control commodity pricing for resources.

I wonder what the the Capex for just the CT is. @ $500 per sf for the building this rounds out to about $3B for the site. with a 40/40/20 MY/CT/Semi split $1.2 could already be allocated to the CT.

This is pretty much sunk cost at this point and the clock is ticking. Let's go.

 

[Tinker71]

Yeah well if they have achieved the pricing goals and are going to hit production rates for the 4680 then I wonder how the battery pricing will effect the CT price.

If we get 130kWh on a DM CT at $80kWh that's about $10k, 200kWh $16k QM. Proportionally, the larger battery in the QM is easier to accommodate in the original price, even including 4WS and the 4th motor.

The question is if they want CT to be profitable from day one of production or a year or so later.

After watching the last couple videos on LFP in either 4680 or blade form factor the more I am convinced that LFP will be integrated in the low and mid tier CT. It is all about the silicon doping. Even though it may work now for the lowest range CT now, it won't really make sense until LFP could also handle the requirements of the CT2.

I realistically don't see this in the next 2 years, but for me, I might see it based on my reservation number.

Personally I don't see the 4680 structural pack as golden idol that can't be modified. The BYD blade batteries already have a structural component so most of the benefits are still there.
Tesla has already shown they can be nimble with the pack options on the MY. As long as it doesn't involve a redesign affecting the mega castings and drivetrain I could see several CT pack designs in the next 4 years.

The nickel forecast can't be ignored.

 

[Ogre]

They spent 5x less to make 4680s than 2170s?

Wow.

-Crissa

Indeed they are absolutely crushing it in terms of driving costs down. Also labor and other costs.

 

[Ogre]

Well in capex to make the factory and manufacturing lines. Not sure what it is per cell as Drew said they don't (yet) control commodity pricing for resources.

Raw materials are only about 30-40% of battery costs. So it’s a bit of 2 steps forward one step back. They will be cheaper, but maybe not as much cheaper as they would like.

Also, this means Tesla has to spend 5x less to spin up successive factories. That’s pretty huge when they are talking about spinning up another 9 factories over the next 10 years.

 

[Throwcomputer]

The nickel forecast can't be ignored.

Orange crop yields can't be ignored either, Mortimer.

 

[charliemagpie]

We had $150kWh in 2019. Thats 3 years ago.
4680 will be $80 once at production rates.

4WS probably around $1500, 4th motor and inverter under $5k.

But I didn't really want to predict CT pricing, rather I was thinking given the current state of 4680 development we should be seeing the price targets being met earlier rather than later.

I am for the $80per KW. Even less once they overcome the rejection rate. I have $65 floating around in my mind.

I like your costings, even with higher markups we are looking no more than $80,000+inflation since its delayed launch.

I believe the hesitation regarding the 4680 ramp is due to the rejection rate...

Even if it's 95% good, a 5 % drop on 100Gwh is at a guess 50,000 cars. Elon will still be underselling its ramp up.

It's all good.

 

[Tinker71]

I am for the $80per KW. Even less once they overcome the rejection rate. I have $65 floating around in my mind.

I like your costings, even with higher markups we are looking no more than $80,000+inflation since its delayed launch.

I believe the hesitation regarding the 4680 ramp is due to the rejection rate...

Even if it's 95% good, a 5 % drop on 100Gwh is at a guess 50,000 cars. Elon will still be underselling its ramp up.

It's all good.

According to The limiting factor video the BYD blade structural pack has a path to $65 per kWhr.
I can get a PM motor/controller from Netgain for $4400 retail. I suspect Tesla motor controller combos are closer to $2000 internal. The rear steering hardware adder will be cheaper as well due to limited range of motion. I am thinking more like $800.

I won't bother speculating on price because too much is going on right now.

 

[rr6013]

Powerheads are the next gearheads.

Transportation is replete with mods, repowers, swaps and retromods, Cybertruck et.al. to be no different. As much money is to be made at the “pack level” as at the “vehicle”.

While Cybertruck is engineered for life beyond 1M miles, its battery is not. Battery technology hasn’t found its V8 equivalent. Moore’s Law effectively supersedes every battery cell in a pack at 18mo. intervals.

Redwood Battery is the new recycling aka salvage center where old batteries find their next life. Imagine the day that Cybertruck owners dropout their Lithium for new Air batteries. wow!

 

[Tinker71]

Powerheads are the next gearheads.

Transportation is replete with mods, repowers, swaps and retromods, Cybertruck et.al. to be no different. As much money is to be made at the “pack level” as at the “vehicle”.

While Cybertruck is engineered for life beyond 1M miles, its battery is not. Battery technology hasn’t found its V8 equivalent. Moore’s Law effectively supersedes every battery cell in a pack at 18mo. intervals.

Redwood Battery is the new recycling aka salvage center where old batteries find their next life. Imagine the day that Cybertruck owners dropout their Lithium for new Air batteries. wow!

After 20% degradation batteries still have 5-10 years as grid tied batteries. Someone should specialize in building hardware to plug your old removed pack into the grid. Start with the model 3 packs since they are the most common. You would eventually need to build multiple interfaces to cover the the most common batteries types. Since space and weight are no longer a huge factor this would be perfect for the 3rd party builders. This would be way cheaper than any Powerwall.

There will be some equilibrium in which the value of the metals for new batteries exceeds the value of the storage less the increasing losses as the batteries age.

Tesla could really capitalize on the energy market side of this, optimizing the cycling vs sales price and charging price with AI grid management.

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