MyTeslaWeekend Rumor - Dual Motor only for the first 500k units produced!

[Ogre]

I now place massive and many asterisks near either (1) any manufacturer’s aspirational towing claims, and (2) any truck-owner’s tails/complaints of long/short distance towing.

This has always been the case. People aren’t very good at figuring this out though and just pay for their lack of consideration about this at the pump and have raced to buy bigger and bigger gas tanks to accommodate their poor trailer selection.

Aero trailers exist.

Frankly, anyone with their heart set on towing should take advantage of the $40,000 tax credit for the semi and probably come out not terribly more expensive than the eventual CT with maximum towing capabilities.

Driving a semi around is a half-choice. The experience is very much geared towards pro drivers. Single seat in the cockpit, poor secondary seating, it’s very tough to park a semi in normal lots or take one out to dinner..

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[Crissa]

Driving a semi around is a half-choice. The experience is very much geared towards pro drivers. Single seat in the cockpit, poor secondary seating, it’s very tough to park a semi in normal lots or take one out to dinner..

You could say the same about most RVs.

-Crissa

 

[cvalue13]

The experience is very much geared towards pro drivers. Single seat in the cockpit, poor secondary seating, it’s very tough to park a semi in normal lots or take one out to dinner..

Single seat? Don’t threaten me with a good time! (With two toddlers and a third on the way, some quiet driving time sounds like a perk)

Sorry, kids, only daddy can go camping this time

You could say the same about most RVs.

-Crissa

^^ dad’s camping set-up for one ^^

 

[Ogre]

Ok, a little rethink on the top post and I’m starting to think perhaps it’s more likely then I originally did. The Semi switching to a 3 motor config got me thinking they might be getting much better performance out of the Plaid motors. Here’s my thinking:

Power Versus Speed.

If you look at the tri motor Cybertruck, Tesla could replace the dual motor rear end with a single Plaid motor geared for power instead of speed. The carbon wrapped motors can go from 0 - 20,000 RPMs. On the Plaid, they use this to push the car to 200MPH. The top speed on the Cybertruck doesn’t need to be 200 MPH, they can top it off at 120 MPH so Tesla can convert those extra RPMs into much more power.

With dual carbon motors, they can have the rear motor hit nearly the power of the rear end they had on the tri motor, but it would be more efficient. This would be the golden ticket for the dual motor Cybertruck with 500 miles range. It would have almost all the performance characteristics of the previous tri motor (With perhaps a bit less acceleration and lower top speed).


If they are talking about punting quad motor way down the line, then that would suggest quad would be a Plaid option which would come later and the 2 dual motor options would be the main offering for some time. Similar to the way the Model X Plaid came out years after the Model X was launched.

Also… there is no “Carbon Shortage”. The limiter would be the machines to wind the motors.

Not a prediction. Just trying to make sense of this rumor.

 

[Ogre]

You could say the same about most RVs.

Sure. But try parking a semi in an RV park or a campground.

It would be an awesome RV that can only stay in shitty places.

 

[cvalue13]

In all seriousness:

• what’s the best educated guess at the semi’s MSRP, minus the $40,000 tax credit?

• what’s the best educated guess at the CT quad MSRP (no doubt ineligible for any tax credit)

I can’t imagine the delta between those two will be that huge

which brings to mind, who other than Tesla will be in line to take advantage of this $40K tax credit? Are there competitor EVs over 14,000lb on the horizon?

 

[Throwcomputer]

which brings to mind, who other than Tesla will be in line to take advantage of this $40K tax credit? Are there competitor EVs over 14,000lb on the horizon?

Quick google search...

Freightliner eCascadia and eM2 - Portland Oregon
Volvo VNR - Dublin, Virginia
Kenworth T680E - Renton, Washington
Peterbilt 579EV - Denton, Texas (probably USA.. cant find specific factory location)
BYD 8TT - Lancaster, California
Nikola Tre - Coolidge, Arizona

Surprisingly a lot more than you would think will be hitting the road currently or shortly.

 

[cvalue13]

Quick google search...

Freightliner eCascadia and eM2 - Portland Oregon
Volvo VNR - Dublin, Virginia
Kenworth T680E - Renton, Washington
Peterbilt 579EV - Denton, Texas (probably USA.. cant find specific factory location)
BYD 8TT - Lancaster, California
Nikola Tre - Coolidge, Arizona

Surprisingly a lot more than you would think will be hitting the road currently or shortly.

Wow, interesting. Including for what that means for both the Tesla semi use case, but also competitors.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Wow, interesting. Including for what that means for both the Tesla semi use case, but also competitors.

I didn't bother looking at each ones specs, but the few that I did see range mentioned were drastically lower than the Tesla semi. So Tesla is in good standing to make a killing on their semi line. We are talking about the difference between a 150 mi semi and a 500 mi semi. Thats astounding.

 

[Ogre]

In all seriousness:

• what’s the best educated guess at the semi’s MSRP, minus the $40,000 tax credit?

• what’s the best educated guess at the CT quad MSRP (no doubt ineligible for any tax credit)

I can’t imagine the delta between those two will be that huge

which brings to mind, who other than Tesla will be in line to take advantage of this $40K tax credit? Are there competitor EVs over 14,000lb on the horizon?

Nobody has a line on Cybertruck pricing.

Best guess is increases are consistent with inflation. Look at the increases other truck makers have made (EV and ICE) since the Cybertruck launch and there you go. Seems like a 10-20% increase is likely.

Some people think Tesla is going to ignore the launch entirely and re-write the whole pricing book to maximize profits. If you think Tesla is that kind of company, you can write whatever numbers you want down on a sheet of paper.

If you don’t have an order in for a semi already, I think you just have to wait and see what comes out. It’s likely they have a 2+ years backlog already for that as well.

 

[cvalue13]

I didn't bother looking at each ones specs, but the few that I did see range mentioned were drastically lower than the Tesla semi. So Tesla is in good standing to make a killing on their semi line. We are talking about the difference between a 150 mi semi and a 500 mi semi. Thats astounding.

I suppose it could depend on what standard use-case is for these localized fleets (a localized fleet being the only thing even 500 miles is likely for)

Looks like for the Volvo, it’s big boy is 275mi range.

from an equal crude google, also appears these semi’s are $300-$500K, but in some states may be eligible for hundreds of thousands in rebates/credits

also appears that these vehicles, used for localized fleets, can come in orders of dozens or over a hundred units at a time. Back in March, Volvo scored an order for 110 units from Maersk.

that order was its local shipping operations at the Southern California port complex and distribution center network. If that sort of localized distribution center coverage area is a near average use-case, I suppose there’s a question as to whether 500mi range is actually twice as “good” as 250ish mile range?

In any event, between these huge state incentives, and the new federal incentives (including for corporate charging infrastructure) it seems like busy semi EV times around the corner

 

[intimidator]

I suppose it depends on what their supply limitations will be. I suspect batteries will still be the primary limiting factor, not motors in 2023. I could be wrong though, I just assume that the carbon wrapping process was done because of how efficient it is vs different motor designs for the higher spinning carbon wrapped variant. Given they use the same # whether its 4 on a semi, or 4 on a CT, or 3 on a Model S. Or two on a Model S.

Either way I will be getting whatever model they start with. That may mean there is no 500+ mile variant for a good while though. Dual motor CT with ~300 miles starting around ~65-70K sounds just about right, unfortunately. I personally would rather see a $100K CT quad with 500+ miles though. Tesla has yet to show a vehicle in their lineup that can do it. The more "basic" offering sounds more realistic.

Here is a question.

Dual motor was spec-ed at 300 miles, not because of the motors, but because they were targeting a certain price point for the dual motor. Fewer batteries, meant a lower price.

Tesla could choose to build a Dual Motor, with 400+ miles of range. Or even 500+ miles of range. Just put in more batteries.

I would pay up for a Dual with either 400 or 500 miles of range.

Does anyone think that is possible?

 

[Tinker71]

I am sure people that have RVs don't want to drop another $100k, but powered EVs are coming. These make the most sense. No need to carry an extra 100kWhrs on your CT for most days.

A couple 10-20 HP hub motors for trailer regen braking and a big battery pack and some basic controls and communication with the tow rig. Maybe someone will make a conversion kit for the higher end units that are worth salvaging.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

The Dual Motor (and Tri motor) was listed in the 2019 reveal as AWD, so for the Dual Motor I suspect one motor in front and one in the rear. At least that is what I'm assuming.

if the castings are designed for quad motors, I don’t think they will be putting one motor in the front and one in the rear. It would require a totally redesigned drive system.

 

[Tinker71]

Here is a question.

Dual motor was spec-ed at 300 miles, not because of the motors, but because they were targeting a certain price point for the dual motor. Fewer batteries, meant a lower price.

Tesla could choose to build a Dual Motor, with 400+ miles of range. Or even 500+ miles of range. Just put in more batteries.

I would pay up for a Dual with either 400 or 500 miles of range.

Does anyone think that is possible?

I think so. Each motor/controller probably only accounts for $2500. Tesla will probably value each Kwhr at around $300. (Cost ~$140?) This would take into account for opportunity cost to sell another vehicle.

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