Rumor: Foundation Series Expanded to 20,000 Units (Claims Phone Customer Service Rep)

[kati-patang]

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[VR Driving]

this has been our prediction/analyst on this forum for weeks lol

 

[jerhenderson]

I'm not really inclined to believe a rumor from a random person on reddit who talked to a random Tesla rep.

Even if the person from reddit is telling the truth. When do Tesla reps ever know anything? Last I checked, the average person waiting for their Tesla knows more than the average tesla rep.

But I doubt it's 20,000 for a limited edition at launch. Considering I don't think there are 20,000 people that will be dropping an extra 20k for their truck. I think they would sell the 1000, maybe even 5000, but 20000 is a stretch.

20k people in North America is not a lot.

 

[jerhenderson]

If you think 20K is "limited edition", then I've got an AMEX Platinum application for you to fill out.....

20k when you then build 2 million regular ones is.

 

[CyberMoose]

20k people in North America is not a lot.

It actually is.

For one, 2 million reservations doesn't mean 2 million units will be sold. It doesn't even mean there are 2 million active reservations. It's actually quite reasonable to believe that 85%+ will or already have canceled their reservation. For reasons such as not being about to afford a 60-100k truck when they might have been budgeting for the 40k, or the fact that the economy is in a far worse state than at reveal, or the fact that there is competition in the electric truck market that even beat the Cybetruck to production.

If you look at the Ford Lightning, the electric version of the F150, the most popular truck and even the most popular vehicle in America, it had 200,000 reservations. Though after 1 year of sales and no where near even 100,000 units sold, dealerships had stock at the ready for anyone to buy and take home. Even now, when they should easily have more than 100,000 reservation holders eagerly awaiting their spot in line, Ford announced that they won't be increasing production and will just build to meet demand. It's also worth noting that this includes a model that is significantly cheaper (while not being as nice) as the current Cybertrucks being sold.

If you look at Tesla. The Model Y is the most popular Tesla and actually one of the best selling vehicles around. Tesla even sells more than 10x the amount of Model Y's than they do of Model S. This is most certainly because of the price. The model Y is a reasonably priced vehicle and people are at least rational enough to realize they can be happy with a Model Y and not break the bank instead of selling a kidney to get the Model S.

So I think with the Cybertruck, the amount of reservation holders that will stay are probably going to be in the 5-15% range, which still leaves 100,000-300,000 people. And out of those people, I think many of them, probably about half, will be waiting on the 60k Cybertruck. Out of the remaining people that will get the AWD/Beast, I still think that the vast majority would rather sit back a few months longer to save 20k.

I'm not saying the Cybertruck won't be successful, but it will be an expensive vehicle and with the current economy, I think if Tesla does well with production in the first year, they could fulfill all AWD and Cyberbeast reservations made before launch, by around mid 2025.

 

[awhehackeur]

Very logical assessment given the current state of the economy.

 

[Alan]

The markets are high..inflation is getting inline and retail sales are high. New jobs added have been high. Where is this bad economy other than on fox.

 

[JCERRN]

Someone from Reddit claims to have spoken with a Tesla Rep who indicated that the Foundation Series would now represent the first 20,000 units built. Any of our forum members have better insight into this and/or the actual figures? Would be helpful to know how long we might have to wait if we pass up on the Foundation offer (when our numbers are finally called).

Foundation Information Confirmed with Tesla Support -- 20,000 units, you keep your place in line if you decline​

​

Spoke with Tesla rep today. He shared this information:​

1. If you decline a Foundation invite, you will keep your place in line and receive an invite for non-Foundation series once the Foundation runs have completed.
2. Approx 20,000 Foundation series will be made

i ordered a tri motor (rn133-) if i'm offered a foundation series id have a very hard time passing that up.. by the way, GM dealership is now offering MSRP pricing on hummer ev i reserved….. funny how the market works… 3months ago it was a $20k dealer markup…

 

[JCERRN]

Why would they stop at 20,000? Why won't they go through the 2.5million reservations trying to make an extra 20-40k on as many as they can?

supply and demand… they very well may!

 

[JCERRN]

Tesla always gonna Tesla but…like others have said….Tesla CS reps prob know less then us on these forums ?. There is also no way they make 20k by March. The daily run rate is no
Where near 1.5k yet. But let’s see what happens!

ya.. mr musky knows what hes doing.

 

[ArizonaTea]

Come on guys. This rumor makes completely no sense. Don't be nervous.

I work in Apple and have a lot of friend in Tesla at bay area. And my work is highly related with NPI (New product introduction)/Production/Ramping/Factory management. Here is the thing:

1. No one knows the ramping curve/product config except OPM team (operation product management). So how the phone rep can know?
2. OK, Let's assume this rep has an OPM friend, but, ramping number/production schedule is highly sensitive info and included in NDA (Non disclosure agreement). So will his friend risk his job and lawsuit from Tesla to tell him the number?
3. At last, the decision for product config, especially the signature/founder edition is decided by VPs with market research/factory data, so even OPM from Telsa may not know unless he is in leadership team. Please don't tell me this rep knows Elon...
4. Furthermore, please note the production capacity during ramp is very dynamic. No one know what happens tommorrow at factory. So I don't think even Tesla exective will make decisions based on those jumping numbers. They would rather keeps the foundation edition plan on their table and also keep is dynamic.

OK let's back to fact, based on my experience, Here is my thoughts:

1. I think Model X is a very good reference. They made 1000 signature model for Model X back in 2016. How the luxary EV truck market compare with luxary EV SUV?
2. I think CT ramping should be pretty similar with model X(only curve shape, not number). Both of them has very unique technology and causing lots of issue during ramp.
3. The begining of ramping is usually very hard since some issues will only show up when the production number reach to some level. However, when all the issues got fixed, the ramping can be very fast. If you look at Model 3/X/S, all of them is exponential curve before reach to max capacity.
4. Let's look at numbers, Ming-Chi Kuo (You can trust this guy. He got very accurate Apple production number by collectin info from every factory in Apple's supply chains, he already predicted on mid 2023 as the first deliver will happen at Dec 2023) predict CT production in 2024 is 100k-120k. And 250k-260k in 2025.
5. Let's say 2M order around 10% survive, 200k can be fullfiled in first half of 2025. Please note, right now the model X sells around 2k each month in US. Will you expecting CT can sell 10x more than model X and 2x more than model Y?

My conclusion: All the serious buyer in this forum will get your CT sooner than you think. You do not need to worry about how many foundation will be made. Even this rep knows Elon and 20K foundation is true, you will only wait around 1-2 months longer.

 

[cvalue13]

If they plan to make 20,000, and lets say that many until March (AWD Foundation timeline), that means they will produce 1,538 CTs a Week

seems your arrow is running in the wrong direction

Seems Tesla is updating their delivery window expectation with ~each tranche of invites that goes out

the eg Jan-March delivery estimate was for people ordering ~around the time of *those* invites

they were *not* saying “every AWD Foundation we ever make will be delivered by March”

 

[cvalue13]

Everyone seems to assume “limited” means in some capped number, eg 1000 units**

it can also mean a capped time period, eg every order configured before end of Q1



**the 1,000 figure was the plan at one point (and communicated to a few media outlets prior to delivery event), but that plan has changed - and remains subject to change - which is why Tesla hasn’t stated what the plan is (in either numbers or time)

 

[cyberkory]

I put my deposit down the moment he was done speaking in 2019. I got the call this week to get the Founders Series (I also live in California).

Financing confirmed.

 

[Fleetwood75]

Nearly half of the people who answered this poll (https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/still-ordering-ct-income-poll.10059/) have an income of $200k or more, and by virtue of being on this forum are Cybertruck fanatics. I suspect they would have no trouble finding 20,000 people out of 2 million who will happily pay for a Foundation Series. When you make, say $400k/yr, that $20k hit to get the truck early isn’t a big deal, that’s like 2.5 weeks of salary

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